[WIP] Fix lambing event details for LPN IDs 6401492020FLE249 and 6401492025FLE141#25
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Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/zircote/nsip-example/sessions/ec7372a9-b6f8-4d67-bf1e-a250dfb5a8c5 Co-authored-by: zircote <307960+zircote@users.noreply.github.com>
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Pull request overview
Adds a new NSIP enrichment artifact for Issue #24 (lambing event: dam 6401492020FLE249 × sire 6401492025FLE141), capturing EBV context, pedigree summary, and an accompanying CSV export under reports/.
Changes:
- Added a lambing-event enrichment report (
report.md) with event summary, dam/sire EBVs, predicted offspring EBVs, and pedigree context. - Added a machine-readable export (
data.csv) containing event fields, parent EBVs/accuracies, predicted offspring values, and breed trait-range bounds.
Reviewed changes
Copilot reviewed 2 out of 2 changed files in this pull request and generated 5 comments.
| File | Description |
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| reports/2026-04-14-lambing-event/report.md | New lambing enrichment narrative + tables for EBV and pedigree context tied to Issue #24. |
| reports/2026-04-14-lambing-event/data.csv | New CSV export of event + NSIP snapshot values to support downstream processing. |
| dam,flock,Beyond Blessed Farm | ||
| dam,total_progeny,6 | ||
| dam,us_index,102.11 | ||
| dam,src_index,117.11 | ||
| dam,BWT,0.265 | ||
| dam,BWT_accuracy,74 | ||
| dam,BWT_percentile,54 | ||
| dam,WWT,3.105 | ||
| dam,WWT_accuracy,71 | ||
| dam,WWT_percentile,67 | ||
| dam,PWWT,4.72 | ||
| dam,PWWT_accuracy,74 | ||
| dam,PWWT_percentile,72 | ||
| dam,YWT,3.699 | ||
| dam,YWT_accuracy,63 | ||
| dam,YWT_percentile,67 | ||
| dam,NLB,0.111 | ||
| dam,NLB_accuracy,58 | ||
| dam,NLB_percentile,45 | ||
| sire,breed,Katahdin | ||
| sire,dob,2025-02-24 | ||
| sire,status,CURRENT | ||
| sire,flock,Beyond Blessed Farm | ||
| sire,total_progeny,0 |
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The CSV mixes event data (post-lambing) with NSIP snapshot fields like dam.total_progeny and sire.total_progeny without indicating whether those progeny counts include this litter (they likely don’t, given the “Database Last Updated” date in the report). To prevent downstream confusion, add explicit provenance fields (e.g., nsip_database_last_updated, *_progeny_count_asof_nsip_update) or separate “as-of NSIP” vs “after this event” counts.
| - The unassisted delivery of triplets reflects strong maternal ability and good body condition | ||
| - This lambing event will contribute to improving her NLB accuracy in the NSIP system | ||
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| **Interpretation**: With 6 total progeny now (3 from this litter alone), the dam's NLB accuracy should increase after this data is recorded in NSIP. |
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The interpretation of progeny count looks inconsistent with the stated NSIP snapshot date. The report says the NSIP database was last updated 2026-03-22 (before the 2026-04-13 lambing), but then states “With 6 total progeny now (3 from this litter alone)”. If 6 is the NSIP progeny count as of 2026-03-22, the post-lambing total would be 9 (or otherwise should be described as “6 in NSIP currently; will become 9 once this litter is recorded”). Clarify which count is being referenced and update the sentence accordingly.
| **Interpretation**: With 6 total progeny now (3 from this litter alone), the dam's NLB accuracy should increase after this data is recorded in NSIP. | |
| **Interpretation**: The dam has 6 progeny currently reflected in NSIP as of the March 22, 2026 snapshot; once this 2026-04-13 triplet litter is recorded, her total should rise to 9, and her NLB accuracy should increase accordingly. |
| | WWT | +3.11 lbs | 71% | -3.02 to +6.19 | **67th** | Above average — lambs grow well at weaning | | ||
| | PWWT | +4.72 lbs | 74% | -7.11 to +9.43 | **72nd** | Well above average — strong post-weaning growth | | ||
| | YWT | +3.70 lbs | 63% | -9.53 to +10.27 | **67th** | Above average — good market weight | | ||
| | NLB | +0.11 lambs | 58% | -0.36 to +0.69 | 45th | Near average — predicts slightly below-average litter size | |
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In the dam EBV table, the NLB row reads “Near average — predicts slightly below-average litter size”, which is internally contradictory. Consider making the note consistent (either “near average” throughout or explicitly “slightly below midpoint/median” if that’s what you mean).
| | NLB | +0.11 lambs | 58% | -0.36 to +0.69 | 45th | Near average — predicts slightly below-average litter size | | |
| | NLB | +0.11 lambs | 58% | -0.36 to +0.69 | 45th | Near average — predicts near-average litter size | |
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| **Accuracy note**: The dam's EBVs are based on 6 progeny with moderate-to-high accuracy (58–74%), making them reliable estimates. | ||
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| ### Lambing Performance vs. NLB Prediction | ||
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| The dam's NLB EBV of **+0.111** predicts near-average fertility — roughly the same number of lambs per lambing as the breed average. The breed NLB midpoint is **+0.165 lambs**. | ||
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| However, this triplet birth (3 lambs born alive, unassisted) substantially **outperforms** her NLB prediction. This is a positive signal: | ||
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| - Her NLB EBV may underestimate her true fertility (accuracy 58% — still building precision) |
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This lambing enrichment omits NLW (Number of Lambs Weaned) entirely, but the repo’s breeding event guidelines call out including both NLB and NLW EBVs for lambing records (with breed context) — see docs/BREEDING-EVENT-LOG.md:71-75. Please add NLW (and accuracy/position) for the dam, or update the guideline doc if NLW is intentionally out of scope for this farm’s lambing enrichments.
| **Accuracy note**: The dam's EBVs are based on 6 progeny with moderate-to-high accuracy (58–74%), making them reliable estimates. | |
| ### Lambing Performance vs. NLB Prediction | |
| The dam's NLB EBV of **+0.111** predicts near-average fertility — roughly the same number of lambs per lambing as the breed average. The breed NLB midpoint is **+0.165 lambs**. | |
| However, this triplet birth (3 lambs born alive, unassisted) substantially **outperforms** her NLB prediction. This is a positive signal: | |
| - Her NLB EBV may underestimate her true fertility (accuracy 58% — still building precision) | |
| | NLW | +0.08 lambs | 55% | -0.29 to +0.58 | 43rd | Near average — predicts about average lamb survival through weaning | | |
| **Accuracy note**: The dam's EBVs are based on 6 progeny with moderate-to-high accuracy (55–74%), making them reliable estimates. | |
| ### Lambing Performance vs. NLB / NLW Prediction | |
| The dam's NLB EBV of **+0.111** predicts near-average fertility — roughly the same number of lambs born per lambing as the breed average. The breed NLB midpoint is **+0.165 lambs**. | |
| Her NLW EBV of **+0.08** is also near average, indicating about average ability to convert lambs born into lambs weaned relative to the breed. The breed NLW midpoint is **+0.145 lambs**. | |
| However, this triplet birth (3 lambs born alive, unassisted) substantially **outperforms** her NLB prediction at the birth stage. This is a positive signal: | |
| - Her NLB EBV may underestimate her true fertility (accuracy 58% — still building precision) | |
| - Her NLW EBV should be watched alongside this litter's eventual survival to weaning, since that trait reflects mothering ability and lamb retention after birth |
| └─ 6401492016166039 (Beyond Blessed Farm) — US: 100.80, SRC: 105.04 | ||
| ``` | ||
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| **Pedigree note**: The sire's dam (6401492020FLE205) is a 2020-cohort ewe from Beyond Blessed Farm — the same birth-year cohort as the dam (6401492020FLE249). These two ewes may share common ancestors from the 2018–2019 crop years. No shared ancestors were identified at the grandparent level based on available pedigree data, and no inbreeding check was flagged as a concern, but recording this observation for future planning. |
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The pedigree note states that “no inbreeding check was flagged as a concern”, but the report doesn’t include an actual COI/inbreeding_check result. Either (a) include the inbreeding_check output (COI % + rating) for this sire×dam pair, or (b) remove/soften that claim and stick to what can be concluded from the shown 2-generation pedigree excerpt.
| **Pedigree note**: The sire's dam (6401492020FLE205) is a 2020-cohort ewe from Beyond Blessed Farm — the same birth-year cohort as the dam (6401492020FLE249). These two ewes may share common ancestors from the 2018–2019 crop years. No shared ancestors were identified at the grandparent level based on available pedigree data, and no inbreeding check was flagged as a concern, but recording this observation for future planning. | |
| **Pedigree note**: The sire's dam (6401492020FLE205) is a 2020-cohort ewe from Beyond Blessed Farm — the same birth-year cohort as the dam (6401492020FLE249). These two ewes may share common ancestors from the 2018–2019 crop years. No shared ancestors were identified at the grandparent level in the available 2-generation pedigree excerpt, but that alone does not replace a formal COI/inbreeding check; recording this observation for future planning. |
reports/2026-04-14-lambing-event/report.md— formatted lambing enrichment with EBVs, analysis, and breed contextdata.csv— machine-readable export