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Evaluation of presence-only species distribution models

Experimental design

Also available here for better readability / zooming functionalities.

Figure X. Comprehensive overview of the experimental workflow for simulating and evaluating species distribution models using virtual species.

Evaluation workflow

Also available here for better readability / zooming functionalities.

Rescaling metrics

Feature scaling (Min-Max-Normalisierung):

https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/358923abc154221bb5022fc329061f6fc4dcc69f

  • x is an original value
  • x' is the normalized value
  • min(x) lower bound of target range (for AUC 0.5)
  • max(x) upper bound of target range (for AUC 1)
Metric Baseline Min Max Higher Better?
AUC 0.5 0 1 Yes
COR - -1 1 Yes
Spec - 0 1 Yes
Sens - 0 1 Yes
Kappa - -1 1 Yes
PCC - 0 1 Yes
TSS 0 -1 1 Yes
PRG 0.5 0 1 Yes
MAE - 0 1 No
BIAS - -1 1 No

Assessment on how good the evaluation metrics are:

We plot the results of the evaluation metrics against the Pearson correlation between the suitability raster and the prediction map of virtual species.
If the model (points) are plotted on the diagonal, then the metric is performing well.

Evaluation Metric Explained

Preliminary results

AUC

Pearson correlation

Kappa

PCC

TSS

AUC PRG

Sensitivity

Specificity

Preliminary results - Models

AUC - Models

Pearson correlation

Kappa - Models

PCC - Models

TSS - Models

AUC PRG - Models

Sensitivity - Models

Specificity - Models

Preliminary results - Spatial separation strategy

AUC - Spatial separation strategy

Pearson correlation

Kappa - Spatial separation strategy

PCC - Spatial separation strategy

TSS - Spatial separation strategy

AUC PRG - Spatial separation strategy

Sensitivity - Spatial separation strategy

Specificity - Spatial separation strategy

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