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A descriptive Bayesian account of optimism in belief revision

Materials

Life event items were as follows:

item true probability (%)
be a victim of a car break-in 76
die before the age of 80 41
suffer heart failure 31
die before the age of 70 18
suffer a stroke 17
be physically assaulted by a stranger 26
be diagnosed with any kind of cancer 40
become divorced 45
have cataracts 65
be diagnosed with skin cancer 3
become a homeowner 82
live past 90 years old 11
maintain a healthy weight 58
have an achievement recognized by the press 3
have the financial security to retire comfortably at 65 22
live past 100 years old 1
be in a marriage that lasts at least 10 years 61
be earning more than $75k/yr within 5 years 16
be earning more than $100k/yr within 5 years 9
make it through all of next year without catching a cold 23

Reproducibility notes

To reproduce the manuscript and all analyses, follow the following steps after cloning this repository.

RECOMMENDED: Install Docker and utilize cogdatasci/rstudio docker container. Recommend you run with the following options:

docker run -d -p 8787:8787 -v "`pwd`":/home/rstudio/working \
 -e PASSWORD=my_password_here cogdatasci/rstudio

then navigate to localhost:8787 in your browser to access the rstudio interface.

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