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920 changes: 920 additions & 0 deletions modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/calendar_activity.json

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6,622 changes: 6,622 additions & 0 deletions modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/cluster_analysis.json

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286 changes: 286 additions & 0 deletions modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/cluster_summary.txt
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Species clusters
================

Cluster 1
---------
Single-species cluster containing Snowberry, mainly representing winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The defining pattern is a winter peak around September, a moderate autumn component, moderate summer suppression, and balanced response dynamics. Its defining traits include year wrapping winter presence, atypical winter peak, and moderate autumn component. Compared with the full species set, autumn to winter weight ratio is higher than the whole-set average and trough month is lower than the whole-set average.

Species (1):
Snowberry

Dominant model family : winter_presence
Dominant class : winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component
Common traits : year_wrapping_winter_presence (1, 100%), atypical_winter_peak (1, 100%), moderate_autumn_component (1, 100%), moderate_summer_suppression (1, 100%), low_baseline_presence (1, 100%)

Peak month mean/range : 9.00 (9.00 - 9.00)

Distinguishing numeric features:
- autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio (higher, scaled_difference=0.88)
- trough_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.67)
- active_month_count_ge_0_10 (lower, scaled_difference=-0.50)
- peak_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.50)
- fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.07)

Cluster 2
---------
Single-species cluster containing Jay, mainly representing resident with summer detectability collapse. Detectability peaks around October and and is lowest around August. The shared pattern includes weak baseline presence, moderate summer suppression, meaningful autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Its defining traits include resident detectability pattern, weak baseline presence, and autumn detectability peak. Compared with the full species set, fit score is higher than the whole-set average and target amplitude is lower than the whole-set average.

Species (1):
Jay

Dominant model family : resident_detectability
Dominant class : resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse
Common traits : resident_detectability_pattern (1, 100%), weak_baseline_presence (1, 100%), autumn_detectability_peak (1, 100%), summer_detectability_trough (1, 100%), weak_spring_carryover (1, 100%)

Peak month mean/range : 10.00 (10.00 - 10.00)

Distinguishing numeric features:
- fit_score (higher, scaled_difference=0.68)
- target_amplitude (lower, scaled_difference=-0.65)
- peak_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.61)
- year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio (higher, scaled_difference=0.40)
- target_mean_value (lower, scaled_difference=-0.39)

Cluster 3
---------
Cluster of 28 species, mainly representing resident with summer detectability collapse. Detectability peaks around April and and is lowest around September. The shared pattern includes weak baseline presence, moderate summer suppression, weak autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Common high-support traits include resident detectability pattern, moderate summer suppression, and weak autumn component.

Species (28):
Collared Dove
House Sparrow
Chaffinch
Coal Tit
Germander Speedwell
Common Cleavers
Blackcap
Skylark
Mallard
Pied Wagtail
Shepherds Purse
Daisy
Nettle
Common Kestrel
Long Tailed Tit
Buzzard
Blackbird
Blue Tit
Dunnock
Canada Goose
Song Thrush
Greylag Goose
Great Tit
Pheasant
Greenfinch
Wren
Dandelion
Rook

Dominant model family : resident_detectability
Dominant class : resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse
Common traits : resident_detectability_pattern (28, 100%), moderate_summer_suppression (27, 96%), weak_autumn_component (25, 89%), rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics (22, 79%), meaningful_year_end_component (20, 71%)

Peak month mean/range : 4.29 (3.00 - 6.00)

Distinguishing numeric features:
- fit_score (higher, scaled_difference=0.23)
- baseline_to_peak_ratio (lower, scaled_difference=-0.10)
- year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio (lower, scaled_difference=-0.10)
- target_mean_value (lower, scaled_difference=-0.09)
- autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio (lower, scaled_difference=-0.06)

Cluster 4
---------
Cluster of 15 species, mainly representing resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. Detectability peaks around February and and is lowest around August. The shared pattern includes strong baseline presence, strong summer suppression, weak autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Common high-support traits include resident detectability pattern, meaningful year end component, and weak autumn component. Compared with the full species set, fit score is higher than the whole-set average.

Species (15):
Cormorant
Mistle Thrush
Robin
Mute Swan
Herring Gull
Black Headed Gull
Coot
Grey Heron
Jackdaw
Red Kite
Goldfinch
Woodpigeon
Common Starling
Crow
Magpie

Dominant model family : resident_detectability
Dominant class : resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression
Common traits : resident_detectability_pattern (15, 100%), meaningful_year_end_component (15, 100%), weak_autumn_component (13, 87%), winter_detectability_peak (12, 80%), strong_pre_summer_retention (12, 80%)

Peak month mean/range : 2.33 (2.00 - 5.00)

Distinguishing numeric features:
- fit_score (higher, scaled_difference=0.26)
- peak_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.24)
- baseline_to_peak_ratio (higher, scaled_difference=0.21)
- target_mean_value (higher, scaled_difference=0.19)
- year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio (higher, scaled_difference=0.17)

Cluster 5
---------
Cluster of 4 species, mainly representing moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from June to September, with a mean peak around July, and and an average width of 3.0 months. It is characterised by moderate season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak, moderate season, and central peak alignment. Compared with the full species set, season start month is higher than the whole-set average and fit score is lower than the whole-set average.

Species (4):
Rosebay Willowherb
White Clover
Gatekeeper Butterfly
Goats Beard

Dominant model family : seasonal_presence
Dominant class : moderate_summer_seasonal_presence
Common traits : summer_peak (4, 100%), moderate_season (4, 100%), central_peak_alignment (4, 100%), strong_offseason_suppression (3, 75%), moderate_seasonal_window (3, 75%)

Peak month mean/range : 7.05 (6.17 - 8.27)
Season width mean : 2.97 months

Distinguishing numeric features:
- season_start_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.35)
- fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.29)
- peak_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.28)
- season_width_months (lower, scaled_difference=-0.18)
- season_midpoint_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.13)

Cluster 6
---------
Cluster of 13 species, mainly representing moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to June, with a mean peak around May, and and an average width of 2.6 months. It is characterised by moderate season and sharp active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, central peak alignment, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, fit score is lower than the whole-set average and season end month is lower than the whole-set average.

Species (13):
Chiffchaff
Garden Warbler
Lesser Celandine
Cowslip
Garlic Mustard
Common Vetch
Cow Parsley
Whitethroat
Orange Tip Butterfly
Reed Warbler
Yellow Flag Iris
Bluebell
Cuckoo

Dominant model family : seasonal_presence
Dominant class : moderate_spring_seasonal_presence
Common traits : spring_peak (12, 92%), central_peak_alignment (11, 85%), strong_offseason_suppression (10, 77%), sharp_seasonal_window (8, 62%), moderate_season (8, 62%)

Peak month mean/range : 4.68 (3.12 - 5.49)
Season width mean : 2.59 months

Distinguishing numeric features:
- fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.28)
- season_end_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.27)
- season_width_months (lower, scaled_difference=-0.23)
- season_midpoint_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.20)
- season_start_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.05)

Cluster 7
---------
Single-species cluster containing Red Admiral Butterfly, mainly representing extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from March to December, with a mean peak around August, and and an average width of 8.8 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Its defining traits include summer peak, very broad season, and moderate seasonal window. Compared with the full species set, season width months is higher than the whole-set average and peak month is higher than the whole-set average.

Species (1):
Red Admiral Butterfly

Dominant model family : seasonal_presence
Dominant class : extended_summer_seasonal_presence
Common traits : summer_peak (1, 100%), very_broad_season (1, 100%), moderate_seasonal_window (1, 100%), moderate_post_peak_decline (1, 100%), moderate_offseason_suppression (1, 100%)

Peak month mean/range : 7.62 (7.62 - 7.62)
Season width mean : 8.78 months

Distinguishing numeric features:
- season_width_months (higher, scaled_difference=0.55)
- peak_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.34)
- season_end_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.34)
- season_start_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.24)
- fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.19)

Cluster 8
---------
Cluster of 22 species, mainly representing extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to October, with a mean peak around June, and and an average width of 5.8 months. It is characterised by broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include strong offseason suppression, strong post peak decline, and early peak alignment.

Species (22):
Swallow
Buttercup
Brimstone Butterfly
Red Dead Nettle
Green Alkanet
Peacock Butterfly
Common Comfrey
Oxeye Daisy
Doves Foot Cranesbill
Honeysuckle
Red Campion
Dog Rose
Teasel
Red Clover
White Campion
Cuckoo Pint
Speckled Wood Butterfly
Horsetail
Meadow Brown Butterfly
Common Poppy
Cornflower
Swift

Dominant model family : seasonal_presence
Dominant class : extended_spring_seasonal_presence
Common traits : strong_offseason_suppression (19, 86%), strong_post_peak_decline (18, 82%), early_peak_alignment (17, 77%), moderate_seasonal_window (15, 68%), broad_season (12, 55%)

Peak month mean/range : 5.82 (4.12 - 8.38)
Season width mean : 5.76 months

Distinguishing numeric features:
- fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.24)
- season_width_months (higher, scaled_difference=0.17)
- peak_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.14)
- season_end_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.13)
- season_midpoint_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.11)

Cluster 9
---------
Single-species cluster containing Redwing, mainly representing winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The defining pattern is a winter peak around January, a moderate autumn component, moderate summer suppression, and slow arrival fast departure response dynamics. Its defining traits include year wrapping winter presence, core winter winter peak, and moderate autumn component. Compared with the full species set, decay to growth ratio is higher than the whole-set average and active month count ge 0 10 is higher than the whole-set average.

Species (1):
Redwing

Dominant model family : winter_presence
Dominant class : winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component
Common traits : year_wrapping_winter_presence (1, 100%), core_winter_winter_peak (1, 100%), moderate_autumn_component (1, 100%), moderate_summer_suppression (1, 100%), low_baseline_presence (1, 100%)

Peak month mean/range : 1.00 (1.00 - 1.00)

Distinguishing numeric features:
- decay_to_growth_ratio (higher, scaled_difference=0.60)
- active_month_count_ge_0_10 (higher, scaled_difference=0.50)
- trough_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.42)
- peak_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.39)
- autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio (higher, scaled_difference=0.37)

Cluster 10
----------
Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing narrow winter seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from January to March, with a mean peak around February, and and an average width of 1.7 months. It is characterised by narrow season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include winter peak, narrow season, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, season end month is lower than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is lower than the whole-set average.

Species (2):
Snowdrop
Winter Aconite

Dominant model family : seasonal_presence
Dominant class : narrow_winter_seasonal_presence
Common traits : winter_peak (2, 100%), narrow_season (2, 100%), strong_offseason_suppression (2, 100%), central_peak_alignment (2, 100%), moderate_seasonal_window (1, 50%)

Peak month mean/range : 2.40 (2.35 - 2.45)
Season width mean : 1.68 months

Distinguishing numeric features:
- season_end_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.64)
- season_midpoint_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.64)
- season_start_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.54)
- season_width_months (lower, scaled_difference=-0.34)
- fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.32)
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