Added Thrupp Lake bird species analysis

modelling/data/thrupp-lake-birds/resident/black_headed_gull_classification.json

@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
+{
+  "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1",
+  "species": "Black Headed Gull",
+  "model_family": "resident_detectability",
+  "classification": {
+    "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse",
+    "baseline_presence": "weak",
+    "detectability_peak_timing": "spring",
+    "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn",
+    "spring_carryover": "weak",
+    "summer_suppression": "moderate",
+    "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong",
+    "pre_summer_retention": "strong",
+    "autumn_component": "weak",
+    "year_end_component": "meaningful",
+    "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased",
+    "traits": [
+      "resident_detectability_pattern",
+      "weak_baseline_presence",
+      "spring_detectability_peak",
+      "autumn_detectability_trough",
+      "weak_spring_carryover",
+      "moderate_summer_suppression",
+      "strong_summer_decay_acceleration",
+      "strong_pre_summer_retention",
+      "weak_autumn_component",
+      "meaningful_year_end_component",
+      "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics"
+    ],
+    "confidence": "medium"
+  },
+  "derived_metrics": {
+    "target_peak_month": 4,
+    "target_peak_label": "April",
+    "target_trough_month": 10,
+    "target_trough_label": "October",
+    "target_peak_value": 0.6179902708529666,
+    "target_trough_value": 0.0,
+    "target_mean_value": 0.16947003086875745,
+    "target_amplitude": 0.6179902708529666,
+    "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.06796223497504335,
+    "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.05078125,
+    "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.34375,
+    "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4795042897998094,
+    "monthly_target": {
+      "January": 0.10643691104661826,
+      "February": 0.13051214942192935,
+      "March": 0.3530032990742757,
+      "April": 0.6179902708529666,
+      "May": 0.34146996043444217,
+      "June": 0.12672089315357968,
+      "July": 0.09769095477134637,
+      "August": 0.041985534101238155,
+      "September": 0.019990096462397678,
+      "October": 0.0,
+      "November": 0.0037420369449616383,
+      "December": 0.19409826416133383
+    }
+  },
+  "parameter_evidence": {
+    "INITIAL_Y": 0.762,
+    "GROWTH_RATE": 2.098,
+    "DECAY_RATE": 3.104,
+    "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.326,
+    "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.558,
+    "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.965,
+    "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 11.384,
+    "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.064,
+    "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.115,
+    "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.272,
+    "BASELINE": 0.042,
+    "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.512,
+    "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.026,
+    "WINTER_PEAK": 3.995,
+    "AUTUMN_PEAK": 11.015,
+    "AUTUMN_ONSET": 11.37,
+    "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.514,
+    "WINTER_WIDTH": 11.343,
+    "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 10.62,
+    "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.09,
+    "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.326,
+    "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.566,
+    "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.245,
+    "SUMMER_DIP": 0.102,
+    "SUMMER_LOW": 9.77,
+    "SUMMER_ONSET": 7.925,
+    "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.756,
+    "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.25,
+    "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 18.102,
+    "SUMMER_WIDTH": 23.421,
+    "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 37.333,
+    "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.923,
+    "SCALE": 1.126,
+    "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.176,
+    "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.147,
+    "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 79.51,
+    "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 148.126,
+    "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 9.832
+  },
+  "fit": {
+    "score": 0.201
+  },
+  "warnings": [],
+  "summary": "Black Headed Gull is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around October. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration."
+}

modelling/data/thrupp-lake-birds/resident/black_headed_gull_consensus.json

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+{
+  "SCORE": "0.201",
+  "INITIAL_Y": "0.762",
+  "GROWTH_RATE": "2.098",
+  "DECAY_RATE": "3.104",
+  "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.326",
+  "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.558",
+  "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.965",
+  "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "11.384",
+  "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.064",
+  "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.115",
+  "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.272",
+  "BASELINE": "0.042",
+  "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.512",
+  "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.026",
+  "WINTER_PEAK": "3.995",
+  "AUTUMN_PEAK": "11.015",
+  "AUTUMN_ONSET": "11.37",
+  "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.514",
+  "WINTER_WIDTH": "11.343",
+  "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "10.62",
+  "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "11.09",
+  "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.326",
+  "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "7.566",
+  "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "8.245",
+  "SUMMER_DIP": "0.102",
+  "SUMMER_LOW": "9.77",
+  "SUMMER_ONSET": "7.925",
+  "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.756",
+  "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.25",
+  "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "18.102",
+  "SUMMER_WIDTH": "23.421",
+  "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "37.333",
+  "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "8.923",
+  "SCALE": "1.126",
+  "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.176",
+  "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.147",
+  "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "79.51",
+  "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "148.126",
+  "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "9.832",
+  "SPECIES": "Black Headed Gull"
+}

modelling/data/thrupp-lake-birds/resident/black_headed_gull_observed.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+month,value
+1,14
+2,12
+3,10
+4,20
+5,10
+6,7
+7,5
+8,2
+9,1
+10,0
+11,5
+12,3