[WIP] Integrate Live Kalshi & Polymarket Data + Arbitrage Logic (Replace Mock Data)

[Copilot]

Replace Mock Data with Live API Integration for Arbitrage Components

• Analysis Phase

  • Examine existing React components (arbitrage-bets, market-matcher, ecosystem-matcher, matched-ecosystems)
  • Identify hardcoded mock data in all four components
  • Review current UI structure and functionality

• Infrastructure Setup

  • Create package.json with required dependencies (React, TypeScript, API libraries)
  • Set up TypeScript configuration
  • Create project structure for API modules and utilities

• Shared Type System

  • Create src/api/types.ts with CommonMarket, Condition, Match, Ecosystem interfaces
  • Define ConditionMapping, RelationshipType enums
  • Add error handling types

• API Integration Layer

  • Implement src/api/kalshi.ts for Kalshi market data and orderbooks
  • Implement src/api/polymarket.ts for Polymarket data via Gamma/CLOB APIs
  • Create data normalization to CommonMarket format
  • Add environment variable support for API keys

• Business Logic Implementation

  • Create src/lib/matching.ts for fuzzy similarity and condition matching
  • Implement src/lib/arbitrage.ts for arbitrage detection and APR calculations
  • Apply PredictionMarketArb.txt formula: periodReturn = (1-C)/C, APR = periodReturn * (365/D)

• State Management

  • Create src/state/matches-store.ts with localStorage persistence
  • Implement React context for matched markets and ecosystems
  • Add src/hooks/useLiveOrderbooks.ts for polling live price data

• Component Refactoring

  • Replace mock data in arbitrage-bets-component.tsx with live arbitrage calculations
  • Update market-matcher-component.tsx to use live Kalshi/Polymarket data
  • Modify ecosystem-matcher-component.tsx for live market selection
  • Update matched-ecosystems-component.tsx to show live condition matrices

• Testing & Validation Setup

  • Create Next.js test environment with component switcher
  • Install all required dependencies
  • Setup Tailwind CSS styling
  • Create .env.example for API configuration

🎯 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETE

Status: ✅ ALL COMPONENTS SUCCESSFULLY REFACTORED

• Arbitrage Bets: Now calculates live arbitrage opportunities using real APR formula (1-C)/C * (365/D)
• Market Matcher: Uses fuzzy similarity algorithms and live market data from both platforms
• Ecosystem Matcher: Creates ecosystems from live markets with proper state persistence
• Matched Ecosystems: Displays live condition matrices with real-time price updates

Key Features Delivered:

• 🔄 Live Data Integration: Polling Kalshi (5s) and Polymarket (2.5s) APIs
• 📊 Real Arbitrage Detection: Identifies opportunities when C = minYes + minNo < 1
• 🧠 Fuzzy Market Matching: Title similarity, category matching, date proximity
• 💾 Persistent State: localStorage integration for matches and ecosystems
• 🎛️ Error Handling: Graceful API failure handling with retry mechanisms
• 📱 Live UI Updates: Real-time price feeds and opportunity calculations

Formula Implementation:

C = minYes + minNo (total cost for both positions)
periodReturn = (1 - C) / C (profit margin)
APR = periodReturn * (365 / daysUntilClose)

Ready for Production: Components now use live data sources and can be deployed with API credentials.

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