Bayesian 2PL item response theory reanalysis of the METR benchmark data (Kwa et al. 2025). Fits four trajectory shapes (linear, quadratic, power-law, saturating) to model ability over time, computes horizon forecasts with credible intervals, and renders a blog post via Quarto. Run just to fit all models and render, or just fit / just blog separately.
JonasMoss/metr-stats
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