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BTC 2021-2024 Historical Simulations #221

@jribbink

Description

@jribbink

Verify 0 liquidations under historical BTC price data for years 2021, 2022, 2024 matches Python sim conclusions. 2025 is tracked by a separate ticket currently.

Sub-tests

Year Price move HF (init/safety/target) Python sim
2021 mixed +59.6% ($29K→$46K) 1.3 / 1.1 / 1.2 run_study_1_2021_mixed_symmetric.py
2022 bear -64.2% ($46K→$17K) 1.2 / 1.1 / 1.15 run_study_4_2022_bear_symmetric.py
2024 bull +119% ($42K→$93K) 1.3 / 1.1 / 1.2 run_study_2_2024_bull_symmetric.py
2024 capital efficiency +119% ($42K→$93K) 1.1 / 1.025 / 1.04 run_study_3_2024_capital_efficiency_symmetric.py

Shared params

  • Agents: 1
  • Price: daily ticks (365 per year), historical BTC from tidal-protocol-research/btc-usd-max.csv
  • Pool: MOET:YT $500K / 95% concentration / 0.05% fee
  • Pool: MOET:BTC $10M / 80% concentration / 0.3% fee
  • Pool reset: every tick (pool always at peg)

Pass criteria

0 liquidations for all four sub-tests.

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