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paper.md

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@@ -102,12 +102,13 @@ sustainability metrics and the scope of the analysis, including indirect emissio
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Starting from a mapping between ESM technologies/resources and LCI datasets from a LCI database, `mescal` performs
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the LCI and LCIA steps of LCA to pre-compute LCA impact scores that are then integrated in the ESM (\autoref{fig:workflow}).
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Pre-computed LCA impact scores are used to compute the total environmental impact ($LCIA_{tot}$) of the modelled energy system
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configuration, including impacts coming from both infrastructure ($LCIA_{infra}$) and operation ($LCIA_{op}$).
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configuration, including impacts coming from the ESM technologies ($TECH$) and resources ($RES$) including both
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infrastructure ($LCIA_{infra}$) and operation ($LCIA_{op}$).
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$$
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\begin{split}
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{LCIA_{tot}}(k) & = \sum_{j \in TECH} \left( {LCIA_{infra}}(j, k) + {LCIA_{op}}(j, k) \right) + \sum_{r \in RES} {LCIA_{op}}(r, k) \\
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& \forall k \in ENV
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& \forall k \in ENV \quad \text{(1)}
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\end{split}
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$$
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@@ -207,10 +208,10 @@ infrastructure specific impact scores to integrate the difference of lifetime be
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infrastructure LCI datasets. `mescal` multiplies the infrastructure specific impact score ($lcia_{infra}$) with the ratio
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between the ESM lifetime ($n_{ESM}$) and the LCI dataset lifetime ($n_{LCI}$) (`Lifetime.csv`) to ensure that the annual impact in the
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ESM is computed with the LCI dataset lifetime, thus resulting in the adjusted infrastructure specific impact score
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($lcia_{infra}^{adj}$ in Eq. (1)).
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($lcia_{infra}^{adj}$ in Eq. (2)).
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$$
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lcia_{infra}^{adj}(j,k) = lcia_{infra}(j,k) \cdot \frac{n_{ESM}(j)}{n_{LCI}(j)} \quad \forall (j,k) \in TECH \times ENV \quad \text{(1)}
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lcia_{infra}^{adj}(j,k) = lcia_{infra}(j,k) \cdot \frac{n_{ESM}(j)}{n_{LCI}(j)} \quad \forall (j,k) \in TECH \times ENV \quad \text{(2)}
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$$
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- **Technologies efficiency**: Efficiencies of technologies in the ESM and LCI database should be harmonized,
@@ -220,14 +221,14 @@ the amount of direct emissions. `mescal` resolves this issue by adjusting the am
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to the efficiency difference. Except land occupation, land transformation and energy elementary flows, the amounts ($q$)
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of all elementary flows in the operation LCI datasets foregrounds are adjusted using the ratio between
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the LCI dataset ($\eta_{LCI}$) and the ESM ($\eta_{ESM}$) efficiencies, thus resulting in adjusted direct emissions
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amounts ($q^{adj}$ in Eq. (2)).
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amounts ($q^{adj}$ in Eq. (3)).
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The efficiency of the operation LCI dataset ($\eta_{LCI}$) is computed using the quantity of fuel that was removed during the
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double-counting removal step, while the efficiency of the ESM technology ($\eta_{ESM}$) is computed from `ESM.csv`.
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`mescal` applies this transformation to a list of relevant ESM technologies (`Efficiency.csv`), e.g., technologies that
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involve a combustion process.
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$$
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q^{adj}(ef, j) = q(ef, j) \cdot \frac{\eta_{LCI}(j)}{\eta_{ESM}(j)} \quad \forall (ef, j) \in EF \setminus \{land, energy\} \times TECH \quad \text{(2)}
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q^{adj}(ef, j) = q(ef, j) \cdot \frac{\eta_{LCI}(j)}{\eta_{ESM}(j)} \quad \forall (ef, j) \in EF \setminus \{land, energy\} \times TECH \quad \text{(3)}
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$$
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- **Physical units**: The product flows may be expressed in different units in the ESM and the LCI
@@ -257,35 +258,35 @@ Prior to integration into ESM, `mescal` normalizes the specific impact scores. I
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normalization is beneficial in facilitating the solver's convergence, given that specific impact scores may exhibit
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significant discrepancies in magnitude across impact categories and technologies. By aligning all metrics within a
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comparable order of magnitude, numerical stability is improved in the solving process.
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`mescal` performs normalization using the maximum indicator ($lcia_{max}$ in Eq. (3)) of each impact category.
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`mescal` performs normalization using the maximum indicator ($lcia_{max}$ in Eq. (4)) of each impact category.
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`mescal` can control the difference in order of magnitude between the highest and lowest specific impact scores of each impact
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category, to eventually facilitate the solver convergence. To achieve this, `mescal` sets to zero all normalized
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specific impact scores ($lcia_{type}^{norm}$ in Eq. (6)) that are below a threshold $\epsilon$ (in absolute values).
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specific impact scores ($lcia_{type}^{norm}$ in Eq. (7)) that are below a threshold $\epsilon$ (in absolute values).
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This feature can be deactivated by setting $\epsilon$ to zero.
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Also, considerable discrepancies in magnitude may be observed between infrastructure and operation specific impact scores
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within the same impact category, as these are not expressed with the same physical unit (e.g., kg CO$_2$-eq/kW for
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infrastructure and kg CO$_2$-eq/kWh for operation). This might result in a significant fraction of specific impact scores
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being set to zero after comparison with the threshold $\epsilon$.
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To be able to address this issue, `mescal` applies a scaling factor ($lcia_{op,max}(k) / lcia_{infra,max}(k)$ in Eq. (4))
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To be able to address this issue, `mescal` applies a scaling factor ($lcia_{op,max}(k) / lcia_{infra,max}(k)$ in Eq. (5))
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to infrastructure specific impact scores, to ensure that both the maximum infrastructure and operation indicators are normalized to 1.
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`mescal` then applies the scaling factor inverse to normalized infrastructure indicators (Eq. (6)),
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`mescal` then applies the scaling factor inverse to normalized infrastructure indicators (Eq. (7)),
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in order to keep the magnitude difference between operation and infrastructure specific impact scores in the ESM.
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$$
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\begin{split}
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lcia_{type,max}(k) & = \max(lcia_{type}(j,k) \ | \ j \in TECH \ \cup \ RES) \\
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& \forall type \in \{infra, op\} \quad \forall k \in ENV \quad \text{(3)}
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& \forall type \in \{infra, op\} \quad \forall k \in ENV \quad \text{(4)}
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\end{split}
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$$
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$$
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lcia_{infra}^{scaled}(j,k) = lcia_{infra}^{adj}(j,k) \cdot \dfrac{lcia_{op,max}(k)}{lcia_{infra,max}(k)} \forall (j,k) \in TECH \times ENV \quad \text{(4)}
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lcia_{infra}^{scaled}(j,k) = lcia_{infra}^{adj}(j,k) \cdot \dfrac{lcia_{op,max}(k)}{lcia_{infra,max}(k)} \forall (j,k) \in TECH \times ENV \quad \text{(5)}
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$$
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$$
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lcia_{max}(k) = \max(lcia_{type,max}(j,k) \ | \ type \in \{infra, op\}, \ j \in TECH) \quad \forall k \in ENV \quad \text{(5)}
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lcia_{max}(k) = \max(lcia_{type,max}(j,k) \ | \ type \in \{infra, op\}, \ j \in TECH) \quad \forall k \in ENV \quad \text{(6)}
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$$
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$$
@@ -297,24 +298,24 @@ lcia_{type}^{norm}(j,k) =
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\end{cases}
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$$
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$$
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\forall (j,k) \in TECH \ \cup \ RES \times ENV \quad \forall type \in \{infra, op\} \quad \text{(6)}
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\forall (j,k) \in TECH \ \cup \ RES \times ENV \quad \forall type \in \{infra, op\} \quad \text{(7)}
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$$
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## Equations specification
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The following set of modelling equations is included in ESM.
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The environmental objective ${LCIA_{tot}}$ is defined as the sum of the impact scores of the infrastructure, operation,
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and resource parts (Eq. (7)).
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and resource parts (Eq. (1)).
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The infrastructure impact score is derived from the normalized specific impacts ($lcia^{norm}_{infra}$), which are computed
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from the infrastructure LCI datasets. The normalized specific impact scores are divided by the technologies' lifetime in the ESM
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($n_{ESM}$), and scaled with the technologies' installed capacity (${F}$) (Eq. (8)).
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The operation and resource impact scores are respectively derived from the operation and resource normalized specific
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impact scores ($lcia^{norm}_{op}$), which are respectively computed from the operation and resource LCI datasets, and scaled
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with the annual operations (${F_t} \times t_{op}$) (Eq. (9)).
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with the annual operations (${F_t} \times t_{op}$) (Eq. (9)). For convenience, we recall Eq. (1):
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$$
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\begin{split}
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{LCIA_{tot}}(k) & = \sum_{j \in TECH} \left( {LCIA_{infra}}(j, k) + {LCIA_{op}}(j, k) \right) + \sum_{r \in RES} {LCIA_{op}}(r, k) \\
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& \forall k \in ENV \quad \text{(7)}
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& \forall k \in ENV \quad \text{Rep. (1)}
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\end{split}
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$$
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@@ -329,8 +330,11 @@ $$
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## Integrating ESM results in the LCI database
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In order to update the LCI database with the ESM results, `mescal` overwrites the relevant LCI datasets,
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i.e., LCI datasets that are in the sectoral and geographical scope of the ESM, such as markets for electricity, heat or
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transport. The processes composing the markets and their respective shares are determined using the ESM annual
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operation results and the `Mapping.csv` file.
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transport. The technologies composing the markets and their respective shares are determined using the ESM annual
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operation results contained in the `Results.csv` file and mapped back to LCI datasets using the `Mapping.csv` file.
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The `Results.csv` file typically contains additional results such as ESM technologies installed capacities,
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environmental impact scores, and the system total cost.
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## Example notebook
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@@ -347,17 +351,28 @@ benefits, and adverse side effects of energy transition pathways among the envir
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encompassing both the indirect emissions from the infrastructure and a comprehensive set of environmental
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indicators in their model in a transparent and reproducible way.
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Updating the LCI database with ESM results paves the way for using `mescal` with both snapshot and myopic pathway ESM
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within iterative procedures.
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Updating the LCI database with ESM results paves the way for using `mescal` with both snapshot (i.e., stationary)
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and transition pathway (i.e., dynamic) ESM within iterative procedures.
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Snapshot ESM evaluate the energy system configuration and operation over a timespan, during which the energy system
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remains unchanged [@codinagirones2015]. An iterative feedback loop can be established between ESM and `mescal`
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to adjust LCA pre-computed impact scores with the latest ESM results. Convergence is reached when LCA impact scores are
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stable between two consecutive iterations, thus providing a consistent environmental assessment of the energy system
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(i.e., without relying on the LCI database assumptions regarding the energy system under study).
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stable between two consecutive iterations, thus providing a consistent stationary environmental assessment of the
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energy system. In other word, the environmental assessment is performed without relying on the LCI database assumptions
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regarding the energy system under study, but rather with the obtained energy configuration as an input.
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Myopic pathway ESM divide the transition period into a sequence of consecutive optimization problems [@prina2020].
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`mescal` can be used through a 3-step procedure: 1) run the ESM at time-step $t$, 2) update the LCI database
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`mescal` can be used through the following iterative procedure: 1) run the ESM at time-step $t$, 2) update the LCI database
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with the ESM results at time-step $t$, and 3) update the LCA indicators with the updated LCI database for time-step $t+1$.
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This underlies that newly added infrastructure at time step $t+1$ are build with the energy configuration of time
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step $t$ as an input.
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Perfect-foresight pathway ESM optimizes the whole transition period at once, thus assuming that decision-makers
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have a complete knowledge of future information [@prina2020]. A similar procedure to the snapshot ESM can be applied,
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where the LCA indicators for all time steps are updated with the ESM results at the end of the optimization process.
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In this case, convergence is reached when the LCA impact scores of all time steps are stable between two consecutive
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iterations. Likewise to the myopic pathway ESM, newly added infrastructure are build with the energy configuration of the
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previous time step. Additionally, the obtained solution is a global optimum, e.g., minimal carbon emissions over the
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whole transition period, whereas the myopic pathway ESM provide sub-optimal solutions.
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As an example, `mescal` methodology has been applied by @schnidrig2024 with _EnergyScope_ [@moret2017]
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to analyse environmental-economic trade-offs in Swiss energy system transitions.

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