|
| 1 | +# Status — 2026-07-23 [run 4] |
| 2 | + |
| 3 | +Run timestamp: 2026-07-23T (GHA orchestrator run 30001536061) |
| 4 | +Run ID: 2026-07-23-run-4 |
| 5 | + |
| 6 | +**Mode:** FULL PASS (zero dispatches). Step 0.5 saturated-queue fast-exit was |
| 7 | +evaluated and **declined on Condition 1**: both open PRs (#2009, #2022) are |
| 8 | +maintainer-authored (`dayfine`) with no orchestrator `Reviewed SHA:` line, so |
| 9 | +`tip_sha != last_review_sha` for each → Condition 1 FAILS → full pass. |
| 10 | +(Conditions 2/3/4 all PASS.) The full pass independently re-confirmed **ZERO |
| 11 | +dispatchable work.** |
| 12 | +**Nineteenth consecutive zero-dispatch full pass** (8 on 07-21 + run-1..run-7 of |
| 13 | +07-22 + run-1..run-4 of 07-23). |
| 14 | + |
| 15 | +## Headline |
| 16 | + |
| 17 | +- **✅ Main-HEAD CI is GREEN.** HEAD advanced from run-3's `48c6388f` to |
| 18 | + **`4941ec7f`** (#2051 = `ops: daily orchestrator summary 2026-07-23-run3`) — |
| 19 | + the **only** commit since run-3, and it is the prior run's own auto-merged |
| 20 | + output (Condition-2-exempt). Live CI on `4941ec7f`: `build-and-test`=**success**, |
| 21 | + `perf-tier1-smoke`=**success**, `golden-sp500-5y`=success, |
| 22 | + `golden-custom-universe`=success (`golden-sp500-15y`=in_progress — long golden, |
| 23 | + non-gating; `orchestrator`=in_progress = this run). No still-real |
| 24 | + `[critical]`/`[high]`. |
| 25 | +- **No feature / code / interface / `dev/status/*.md` drift** since run-3. The |
| 26 | + single new commit (#2051) touched only `dev/budget/`, `dev/daily/`, |
| 27 | + `dev/health/`, and `dev/status/_index.md` (all orchestrator-summary artefacts). |
| 28 | +- **2 open PRs remain unchanged, both maintainer-authored (`dayfine`); |
| 29 | + orchestrator defers on both** per `gha-local-coordination.md` collision- |
| 30 | + avoidance + `pr-merge-gates.md` T3-A+: |
| 31 | + - **#2009** (`harness/bayesian-gp-nugget-escalation`) — LAPACKE GP-Cholesky |
| 32 | + adaptive-nugget fix, head `1de25b47`, unchanged since 2026-07-19T14:27Z |
| 33 | + (~6 days stalled), active-LOCAL. No QC / re-dispatch / auto-merge. |
| 34 | + - **#2022** (`ops/health-deep-2026-07-20`) — weekly deep health-scan PR, head |
| 35 | + `5ea72979`, unchanged since 2026-07-20T16:08Z. T3-A+: advisory / human-merged |
| 36 | + (no auto-merge). 0 critical. |
| 37 | +- **ZERO dispatches this run.** Re-verified live: `EODHD_API_KEY` **absent** in |
| 38 | + GHA → every feature/experiment track is deep-warehouse-data-gated / human-gated |
| 39 | + / active-LOCAL. Harness backlog has no dispatchable T1/T3 (T1 all `[x]`; open |
| 40 | + `[ ]` are T2 milestone-gated + T3-C superseded + T3-H golden-gated on T1-N + |
| 41 | + T4 human-request-only; `[~]` items are #1636 workflow-PAT-gated and the LAPACKE |
| 42 | + fix maintainer-LOCAL #2009). Cleanup §Backlog holds 0 real open `[ ]` (only the |
| 43 | + schema placeholder). ops-data has no API key; `data-gaps.md` unchanged since |
| 44 | + #814 (2026-05-03). |
| 45 | + |
| 46 | +## Saturated-queue check (Step 0.5) |
| 47 | + |
| 48 | +Escape hatch not triggered (prior summaries `2026-07-23.md`, `-run2`, `-run3` |
| 49 | +exist today, < 24h old). Four conditions evaluated: |
| 50 | + |
| 51 | +- **Condition 1** FAIL — open PRs #2009 / #2022 are maintainer-authored with no |
| 52 | + orchestrator `Reviewed SHA:` line → `tip_sha != last_review_sha` for each. |
| 53 | +- **Condition 2** PASS — the only commit since run-3's summary is #2051, an |
| 54 | + orchestrator-summary commit (subject `ops: daily orchestrator summary …`), |
| 55 | + which is exempt; **no non-summary `dev/status/*.md` modified**. |
| 56 | +- **Condition 3** PASS — Step 1b emitted no `[drift]` (run-3 dispatched zero |
| 57 | + agents → no `dispatched`/`awaiting-merge` orchestrator rows to check). |
| 58 | +- **Condition 4** PASS — `harness.md` / `cleanup.md` unchanged since run-3. |
| 59 | + |
| 60 | +Condition 1 FAIL → fast-exit declined → full pass. This is again the pure |
| 61 | +recurring Condition-1 maintainer-LOCAL false-negative (2/3/4 all pass) — a clean |
| 62 | +example of a full-pass PR that could have been a quiet NO-OP under the standing |
| 63 | +refinement proposal (see §Escalations). |
| 64 | + |
| 65 | +## Pending work |
| 66 | + |
| 67 | +| Track | State | Branch | PR | Next step | |
| 68 | +|-------|-------|--------|----|-----------| |
| 69 | +| harness (LAPACKE GP-Cholesky nugget fix) | awaiting-merge (LOCAL) | harness/bayesian-gp-nugget-escalation | #2009 | maintainer LOCAL (author dayfine, unchanged since 07-19T14:27Z, ~6d stalled); orchestrator does not engage | |
| 70 | +| ops (weekly deep health scan) | awaiting-merge (advisory/human) | ops/health-deep-2026-07-20 | #2022 | advisory scan; human reviews + merges — no orchestrator QC/auto-merge per T3-A+ | |
| 71 | +| resistance-v2 (post-promotion) | blocked (data-gated) | — | — | BUNDLE PROMOTED default-on (#2047, R3 satisfied); next: WF-CV vs w30 (deep-warehouse-gated) + lever-b regime softener axis (default-off) | |
| 72 | +| harness (ci.yml ENOSPC #1636) | blocked (human: workflow-PAT) | — | #1636 | exact YAML staged in commit `4cc7d08`; needs human workflow-scoped PAT to push | |
| 73 | +| margin-realism (M4) | blocked (LOCAL / data-gated) | — | — | M1a/M1b/M2/M3a/M3b MERGED default-off; M4 default-off behind own flag, maintainer LOCAL | |
| 74 | +| post-run-validation | blocked (data-gated) | — | — | golden-run integration test for V3/V4/V7 (needs real backtest data) | |
| 75 | +| backtest-infra | blocked (data-gated) | — | — | P2 matrix (deep-warehouse) | |
| 76 | +| P2 research (floor-quality / short-side Thread C / spy-only / stage-accuracy / simulation / experiment-platform) | blocked (deep-warehouse / LOCAL) | — | — | deep WF-CV surfaces — EODHD warehouse gated | |
| 77 | +| data-foundations (Phase 1.1 verify) | blocked (human: EODHD tier) | — | — | PARKED 2026-05-16; needs Fundamentals tier upgrade (rejected per Option B) | |
| 78 | +| weekly-snapshot / M6.6 live cycle | blocked (human-gated) | — | — | live weekly cycle: DATA_SOURCE + cron + alerts (human decision) | |
| 79 | +| tuning (M2 qNEHVI) | blocked (maintainer-enablement) | — | — | awaiting #1327 enable-commit (carried ≥50 runs) | |
| 80 | + |
| 81 | +## Dispatched this run |
| 82 | + |
| 83 | +| Track | Agent | Outcome | Notes | |
| 84 | +|-------|-------|---------|-------| |
| 85 | +| resistance-v2 | — | skipped (promoted / data-gated) | #2047 (bundle default-on) MERGED at run-2; only docs landed since; remaining WF-CV vs w30 deep-warehouse-gated, lever-b is a default-off axis — no orchestrator-actionable follow-up | |
| 86 | +| harness (LAPACKE GP-Cholesky) | — | skipped (active-LOCAL) | PR #2009, author dayfine, unchanged since 07-19. Orchestrator does not QC/re-dispatch/auto-merge an active-LOCAL maintainer branch; GHA shared-checkout/dune-lock also blocks an isolated in-run retry | |
| 87 | +| ops (weekly deep scan) | — | skipped (advisory/human-merged) | PR #2022, author dayfine. T3-A+: advisory, no auto-merge | |
| 88 | +| margin-realism | — | skipped (merged / LOCAL) | M3a/M3b already MERGED; M4 maintainer-LOCAL + deep-warehouse-gated | |
| 89 | +| data-foundations (Phase 1.1) | — | skipped (PARKED / human-gated) | parked EODHD-Fundamentals verification; tier upgrade rejected per Option B 2026-05-16 | |
| 90 | +| (all other feature tracks) | — | skipped | 0 orchestrator-eligible open PRs; every next step deep-warehouse-data-gated (`EODHD_API_KEY` absent) / human-gated (M6.6, tuning #1327) / active-LOCAL | |
| 91 | +| harness backlog | — | skipped | No dispatchable T1/T3: T1 all `[x]`; T2 milestone-gated (M5/M7/pre-M6); T3-C superseded, T3-H golden-gated on T1-N; T4 human-request-only; #1636 workflow-PAT-blocked; LAPACKE fix maintainer-LOCAL #2009 | |
| 92 | +| cleanup | code-health | skipped | `cleanup.md` §Backlog holds 0 real open `[ ]` (only schema placeholder); no new medium/high mechanical findings | |
| 93 | +| ops-data | ops-data | skipped | `EODHD_API_KEY` absent in GHA; `data-gaps.md` unchanged since #814 (2026-05-03). Sector gap operator-local; ADL needs human EODData registration | |
| 94 | +| _index.md | — | reconciled (light) | Only #2051 (run-3 summary auto-merge) landed since run-3 → no track drift; resistance-v2 row already reflects promotion. Verified rows against per-track files + live open-PR list (#2009, #2022). Refreshed `Last updated` header to run-4 (HEAD `4941ec7f`, CI GREEN). Integrity exit 0; index_size OK (10507/20480, all rows ≤ 250, max 245) | |
| 95 | + |
| 96 | +## Feature Progress |
| 97 | + |
| 98 | +No orchestrator-completable feature work this run. The single main-HEAD advance |
| 99 | +since run-3 is #2051 — the run-3 orchestrator summary auto-merging (docs-only, |
| 100 | +prior-run output). No code, no interface, no dependency unlock. All remaining |
| 101 | +active tracks are gated (deep-warehouse data / human decision / maintainer-LOCAL). |
| 102 | +See §Pending work. |
| 103 | + |
| 104 | +## QC Status |
| 105 | + |
| 106 | +- No READY_FOR_REVIEW orchestrator-authored PRs this run — QC pipeline not run. |
| 107 | +- #2009 / #2022 are maintainer-authored (`dayfine`); orchestrator does not QC |
| 108 | + active-LOCAL / advisory-human PRs (per `gha-local-coordination.md` + |
| 109 | + `pr-merge-gates.md` T3-A+). |
| 110 | + |
| 111 | +## Budget |
| 112 | + |
| 113 | +- Budget cap: $200.0 (from merge-policy.json; runaway-dispatch BACKSTOP, not a |
| 114 | + real budget — auth is a flat-rate subscription, $ figures are API-equivalent |
| 115 | + estimates only) |
| 116 | +- Target utilization: 60%–95% (from merge-policy.json) |
| 117 | +- Subagents spawned: 0 |
| 118 | +- Per-subagent breakdown: (none) |
| 119 | +- Any subagent killed mid-flight: No |
| 120 | +- Total (estimated): ~$1.00 orchestrator overhead / $200 cap (~0.5%) |
| 121 | +- Utilization assessment: UNDER_TARGET — **all-work-done**: zero eligible tracks |
| 122 | + (every next step is deep-warehouse-data-gated / human-gated / active-LOCAL). |
| 123 | + This is a saturation floor, not skipped work. Not an escalation. |
| 124 | +- Scope reduced due to budget: No |
| 125 | + |
| 126 | +## Data Operations |
| 127 | + |
| 128 | +- ops-data not dispatched (`EODHD_API_KEY` absent in GHA; `data-gaps.md` |
| 129 | + unchanged since 2026-05-03). |
| 130 | +- Gaps resolved: none |
| 131 | +- Gaps still blocked: ADL absolute counts (needs EODData free-tier registration — |
| 132 | + human action); sector metadata operator-local (sector-data MERGED, GHA uses |
| 133 | + in-tree fixture — non-gating); deep-warehouse extensions (needs API key) |
| 134 | +- Data fetched: none |
| 135 | + |
| 136 | +## Harness Work |
| 137 | + |
| 138 | +- No harness-maintainer dispatched. No dispatchable T1/T3 item (T1 all `[x]`; |
| 139 | + T2 milestone-gated; T3-C superseded, T3-H golden-gated on T1-N; T4 human- |
| 140 | + request-only; `[~]` items #1636 workflow-PAT-blocked + LAPACKE fix maintainer- |
| 141 | + LOCAL #2009). |
| 142 | + |
| 143 | +## Health Scan |
| 144 | + |
| 145 | +- Result: **CLEAN** — main-HEAD `4941ec7f` (#2051) CI green on all required |
| 146 | + checks (`build-and-test`=success, `perf-tier1-smoke`=success, |
| 147 | + `golden-sp500-5y`=success, `golden-custom-universe`=success; `golden-sp500-15y` |
| 148 | + in_progress — long golden, non-gating), verified live this run. |
| 149 | +- Deterministic checks: status-file integrity exit 0; index-size linter OK |
| 150 | + (10507/20480, all rows ≤ 250, max 245). Local build gate not runnable in the |
| 151 | + orchestrator container (no `dune`/`_build`) — assessed via live CI. |
| 152 | +- Critical items: none. |
| 153 | +- Fast report: `dev/health/2026-07-23-fast-run4.md` (this run). |
| 154 | + |
| 155 | +## Step 1b drift cross-reference |
| 156 | + |
| 157 | +- Prior summary (run-3) dispatched zero agents → no `dispatched`/`awaiting-merge` |
| 158 | + orchestrator rows to check for drift. No `[drift]` warnings. |
| 159 | +- Step 1c carried-forward verification: run-3 carried **no still-real |
| 160 | + `[critical]` items** (only `[info]`). Re-verified this run: main-HEAD advanced |
| 161 | + to `4941ec7f` (#2051, run-3 summary auto-merge); CI **GREEN** on all required |
| 162 | + checks. **No still-real `[critical]` — no `[critical]` emitted this run.** |
| 163 | + |
| 164 | +## Integration Queue |
| 165 | + |
| 166 | +- Empty. No orchestrator PR reached `overall_qc: APPROVED` this run (none |
| 167 | + dispatched). #2009 (maintainer LOCAL), #2022 (advisory/human-merged) are |
| 168 | + human-owned, not orchestrator auto-merge candidates. |
| 169 | + |
| 170 | +## Current Milestone Target |
| 171 | + |
| 172 | +M6.6 — live weekly cycle (DATA_SOURCE + cron + alerts) — **human-gated**. All |
| 173 | +remaining sub-milestone strategy/experiment work is deep-warehouse-data-gated |
| 174 | +(no `EODHD_API_KEY` in GHA). The resistance-v2 supply mechanism is promoted to |
| 175 | +the strategy default (#2047); #2050 was the first weekly-pick live run on it. |
| 176 | + |
| 177 | +## Dependency Unlocks |
| 178 | + |
| 179 | +- None new this run. This run's single merge (#2051) is the prior run's own |
| 180 | + docs-only summary and unlocks nothing. |
| 181 | + |
| 182 | +## Escalations |
| 183 | + |
| 184 | +- **[info] Main CI is GREEN on HEAD `4941ec7f` (#2051).** No live red, no |
| 185 | + `[critical]`. |
| 186 | +- **[info] Recurring Step 0.5 Condition-1 false-negative on maintainer-LOCAL PRs.** |
| 187 | + Both open PRs (#2009, #2022) are maintainer-authored and — by policy — the |
| 188 | + orchestrator will never produce a `Reviewed SHA:` line for them, so Condition 1 |
| 189 | + fails on every run they stay open. This run failed fast-exit **solely** on that |
| 190 | + Condition (2/3/4 all pass) — again the pure demonstration case. Suggested |
| 191 | + `orchestrator-automation` fix: in Step 0.5 Condition 1, treat a maintainer- |
| 192 | + authored PR the orchestrator has classified active-LOCAL / advisory as "no |
| 193 | + orchestrator action pending" (exclude from the `tip_sha == last_review_sha` |
| 194 | + test), mirroring how Condition 2 exempts orchestrator-summary commits. |
| 195 | +- **[info] #1636 (ci.yml ENOSPC fix) still blocked on a human `workflow`-scoped |
| 196 | + PAT.** Exact YAML staged in commit `4cc7d08` / PR #1636. Durable stop to the |
| 197 | + recurring ENOSPC red. Carried as an improvement, not a blocker — no current red. |
| 198 | +- **[info] #2009 stalled ~6 days** (maintainer LOCAL, unchanged since |
| 199 | + 07-19T14:27Z). Not orchestrator-actionable; surfaced so the human can merge, |
| 200 | + hand back to the harness agent (release the LOCAL claim), or close. |
| 201 | + |
| 202 | +## Questions for You |
| 203 | + |
| 204 | +1. **EODHD_API_KEY for the GHA orchestrator?** Still the single biggest unblock: |
| 205 | + nearly every remaining feature/experiment track is deep-warehouse-data-gated |
| 206 | + (post-promotion resistance-v2 WF-CV vs w30 is on that list). Without the key, |
| 207 | + autonomous runs keep hitting the saturation floor (19 consecutive zero-dispatch |
| 208 | + passes). |
| 209 | +2. **Adopt the Step 0.5 Condition-1 refinement?** It converts saturated |
| 210 | + maintainer-LOCAL runs into clean NO-OP fast-exits (less quota, less |
| 211 | + PR/summary noise). This run is again the pure demonstration case — it would |
| 212 | + have been a NO-OP under the refinement. |
| 213 | +3. **Merge #1636's ci.yml disk-headroom fix?** The only durable stop to the |
| 214 | + recurring ENOSPC red. Needs a human with a `workflow`-scoped PAT to push |
| 215 | + commit `4cc7d08`. |
| 216 | +4. **#2009 (LAPACKE nugget fix) — merge, hand back, or close?** Stalled ~6 days |
| 217 | + as an active-LOCAL maintainer branch; the orchestrator defers on it by policy. |
| 218 | + |
| 219 | +--- |
| 220 | +## Your Response |
| 221 | +(Edit this section. Run dev/run.sh after editing to start the next session.) |
| 222 | + |
| 223 | +## Per-run links |
| 224 | + |
| 225 | +- [run 1] dev/daily/2026-07-23.md |
| 226 | +- [run 2] dev/daily/2026-07-23-run2.md |
| 227 | +- [run 3] dev/daily/2026-07-23-run3.md |
| 228 | +- [run 4] dev/daily/2026-07-23-run4.md |
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