diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/activity_heatmap.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/activity_heatmap.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..66f8c75 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/activity_heatmap.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/calendar_activity.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/calendar_activity.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4fc8b3c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/calendar_activity.json @@ -0,0 +1,920 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-ecological-calendar-activity/v1", + "source_cluster_schema_version": "seasonal-ecological-calendar-clusters/v1", + "n_clusters": 10, + "normalisation": { + "method": "species_max", + "description": "Each species is normalised to its own maximum synthesised value before cluster-level monthly aggregation.", + "value_column": "synthesised" + }, + "clusters": [ + { + "cluster_id": 1, + "calendar_label": "Snowberry neighbourhood", + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Snowberry, mainly representing winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The defining pattern is a winter peak around September, a moderate autumn component, moderate summer suppression, and balanced response dynamics. Its defining traits include year wrapping winter presence, atypical winter peak, and moderate autumn component. Compared with the full species set, autumn to winter weight ratio is higher than the whole-set average and trough month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Snowberry" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.289268, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.053012, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.009363, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.001653, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.000292, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.035926, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.291041, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.706134, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 1.0, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.936094, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.581471, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.244276, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 2, + "calendar_label": "Jay neighbourhood", + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Jay, mainly representing resident with summer detectability collapse. Detectability peaks around October and and is lowest around August. The shared pattern includes weak baseline presence, moderate summer suppression, meaningful autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Its defining traits include resident detectability pattern, weak baseline presence, and autumn detectability peak. Compared with the full species set, fit score is higher than the whole-set average and target amplitude is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Jay" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 1.0, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.547699, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.333066, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.231214, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.182881, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.159615, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.064212, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.00059, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.089497, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.261757, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.198723, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.209148, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 3, + "calendar_label": "Resident With Summer Detectability Collapse", + "description": "Cluster of 28 species, mainly representing resident with summer detectability collapse. Detectability peaks around April and and is lowest around September. The shared pattern includes weak baseline presence, moderate summer suppression, weak autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Common high-support traits include resident detectability pattern, moderate summer suppression, and weak autumn component.", + "n_species": 28, + "species": [ + "Collared Dove", + "House Sparrow", + "Chaffinch", + "Coal Tit", + "Germander Speedwell", + "Common Cleavers", + "Blackcap", + "Skylark", + "Mallard", + "Pied Wagtail", + "Shepherds Purse", + "Daisy", + "Nettle", + "Common Kestrel", + "Long Tailed Tit", + "Buzzard", + "Blackbird", + "Blue Tit", + "Dunnock", + "Canada Goose", + "Song Thrush", + "Greylag Goose", + "Great Tit", + "Pheasant", + "Greenfinch", + "Wren", + "Dandelion", + "Rook" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.53862, + "n_species_contributing": 28 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.510212, + "n_species_contributing": 28 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.679294, + "n_species_contributing": 28 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.870215, + "n_species_contributing": 28 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.808492, + "n_species_contributing": 28 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.576286, + "n_species_contributing": 28 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.303355, + "n_species_contributing": 28 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.188865, + "n_species_contributing": 28 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.192174, + "n_species_contributing": 28 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.211752, + "n_species_contributing": 28 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.239941, + "n_species_contributing": 28 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.3856, + "n_species_contributing": 28 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 4, + "calendar_label": "Resident With Spring Persistence And Summer Suppression", + "description": "Cluster of 15 species, mainly representing resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. Detectability peaks around February and and is lowest around August. The shared pattern includes strong baseline presence, strong summer suppression, weak autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Common high-support traits include resident detectability pattern, meaningful year end component, and weak autumn component. Compared with the full species set, fit score is higher than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 15, + "species": [ + "Cormorant", + "Mistle Thrush", + "Robin", + "Mute Swan", + "Herring Gull", + "Black Headed Gull", + "Coot", + "Grey Heron", + "Jackdaw", + "Red Kite", + "Goldfinch", + "Woodpigeon", + "Common Starling", + "Crow", + "Magpie" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.964338, + "n_species_contributing": 15 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.878583, + "n_species_contributing": 15 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.774402, + "n_species_contributing": 15 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.674279, + "n_species_contributing": 15 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.623505, + "n_species_contributing": 15 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.582529, + "n_species_contributing": 15 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.420112, + "n_species_contributing": 15 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.302199, + "n_species_contributing": 15 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.316757, + "n_species_contributing": 15 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.366061, + "n_species_contributing": 15 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.412074, + "n_species_contributing": 15 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.572646, + "n_species_contributing": 15 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 5, + "calendar_label": "Moderate Summer Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 4 species, mainly representing moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from June to September, with a mean peak around July, and and an average width of 3.0 months. It is characterised by moderate season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak, moderate season, and central peak alignment. Compared with the full species set, season start month is higher than the whole-set average and fit score is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 4, + "species": [ + "Rosebay Willowherb", + "White Clover", + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Goats Beard" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 1e-06, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.00258, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.190403, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.669587, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.786763, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.481691, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.086942, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.0001, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 6, + "calendar_label": "Moderate Spring Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 13 species, mainly representing moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to June, with a mean peak around May, and and an average width of 2.6 months. It is characterised by moderate season and sharp active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, central peak alignment, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, fit score is lower than the whole-set average and season end month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 13, + "species": [ + "Chiffchaff", + "Garden Warbler", + "Lesser Celandine", + "Cowslip", + "Garlic Mustard", + "Common Vetch", + "Cow Parsley", + "Whitethroat", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Reed Warbler", + "Yellow Flag Iris", + "Bluebell", + "Cuckoo" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.000537, + "n_species_contributing": 13 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.051265, + "n_species_contributing": 13 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.217858, + "n_species_contributing": 13 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.606352, + "n_species_contributing": 13 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.798771, + "n_species_contributing": 13 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.264673, + "n_species_contributing": 13 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.028819, + "n_species_contributing": 13 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 8.1e-05, + "n_species_contributing": 13 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 13 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 13 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 13 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 13 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 7, + "calendar_label": "Red Admiral Butterfly neighbourhood", + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Red Admiral Butterfly, mainly representing extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from March to December, with a mean peak around August, and and an average width of 8.8 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Its defining traits include summer peak, very broad season, and moderate seasonal window. Compared with the full species set, season width months is higher than the whole-set average and peak month is higher than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Red Admiral Butterfly" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.002427, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.106249, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.342973, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.608728, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.849296, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 1.0, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.847989, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.393208, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.250697, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.112701, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.002611, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 8, + "calendar_label": "Extended Spring Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 22 species, mainly representing extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to October, with a mean peak around June, and and an average width of 5.8 months. It is characterised by broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include strong offseason suppression, strong post peak decline, and early peak alignment.", + "n_species": 22, + "species": [ + "Swallow", + "Buttercup", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Green Alkanet", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Common Comfrey", + "Oxeye Daisy", + "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "Honeysuckle", + "Red Campion", + "Dog Rose", + "Teasel", + "Red Clover", + "White Campion", + "Cuckoo Pint", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "Horsetail", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower", + "Swift" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.000112, + "n_species_contributing": 22 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.022969, + "n_species_contributing": 22 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.133215, + "n_species_contributing": 22 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.369405, + "n_species_contributing": 22 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.686775, + "n_species_contributing": 22 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.712112, + "n_species_contributing": 22 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.503197, + "n_species_contributing": 22 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.311763, + "n_species_contributing": 22 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.129067, + "n_species_contributing": 22 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.028989, + "n_species_contributing": 22 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.004711, + "n_species_contributing": 22 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 1.9e-05, + "n_species_contributing": 22 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 9, + "calendar_label": "Redwing neighbourhood", + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Redwing, mainly representing winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The defining pattern is a winter peak around January, a moderate autumn component, moderate summer suppression, and slow arrival fast departure response dynamics. Its defining traits include year wrapping winter presence, core winter winter peak, and moderate autumn component. Compared with the full species set, decay to growth ratio is higher than the whole-set average and active month count ge 0 10 is higher than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Redwing" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 1.0, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.98083, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.656166, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.241796, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.028644, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.002457, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.000211, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 1.8e-05, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.015724, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.114512, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.327539, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.631702, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 10, + "calendar_label": "Narrow Winter Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing narrow winter seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from January to March, with a mean peak around February, and and an average width of 1.7 months. It is characterised by narrow season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include winter peak, narrow season, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, season end month is lower than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Snowdrop", + "Winter Aconite" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.211124, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 1.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.290158, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.000638, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 1e-06, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + } + ] + } + ] +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/cluster_analysis.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/cluster_analysis.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d804674 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/cluster_analysis.json @@ -0,0 +1,6622 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "species-similarity-clusters/v2", + "created_utc": "2026-05-25T08:08:58.218316+00:00", + "source_similarity_schema_version": "species-similarity/v1", + "source_feature_schema_version": "species-feature-table/v1", + "n_species": 88, + "n_clusters": 10, + "method": { + "description": "Hierarchical clustering over pairwise species similarity, followed by cluster-level summaries from the species feature matrix.", + "linkage_method": "average", + "cluster_cut": { + "criterion": "maxclust", + "n_clusters_requested": 10 + }, + "distance_definition": "distance = 1 - similarity", + "cluster_caveat": "Clusters should be interpreted as exploratory seasonal assemblages rather than fixed ecological categories." + }, + "species_order": [ + "Snowberry", + "Jay", + "Collared Dove", + "House Sparrow", + "Chaffinch", + "Coal Tit", + "Germander Speedwell", + "Common Cleavers", + "Blackcap", + "Skylark", + "Mallard", + "Pied Wagtail", + "Shepherds Purse", + "Daisy", + "Nettle", + "Common Kestrel", + "Long Tailed Tit", + "Buzzard", + "Blackbird", + "Blue Tit", + "Dunnock", + "Canada Goose", + "Song Thrush", + "Greylag Goose", + "Great Tit", + "Pheasant", 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+ "Great Tit", + "Pheasant", + "Greenfinch", + "Wren", + "Dandelion", + "Rook" + ], + "right_species": [ + "Cormorant", + "Mistle Thrush", + "Robin", + "Mute Swan", + "Herring Gull", + "Black Headed Gull", + "Coot", + "Grey Heron", + "Jackdaw", + "Red Kite", + "Goldfinch", + "Woodpigeon", + "Common Starling", + "Crow", + "Magpie" + ] + }, + { + "node_id": 168, + "left_child": 70, + "right_child": 164, + "distance": 0.394294, + "n_leaves": 23, + "species": [ + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Swallow", + "Buttercup", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Green Alkanet", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Common Comfrey", + "Oxeye Daisy", + "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "Honeysuckle", + "Red Campion", + "Dog Rose", + "Teasel", + "Red Clover", + "White Campion", + "Cuckoo Pint", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "Horsetail", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower", + "Swift" + ], + "left_species": [ + "Red Admiral Butterfly" + ], + "right_species": [ + "Swallow", + "Buttercup", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Green Alkanet", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Common Comfrey", + "Oxeye Daisy", + "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "Honeysuckle", + "Red Campion", + "Dog Rose", + "Teasel", + "Red Clover", + "White Campion", + "Cuckoo Pint", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "Horsetail", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower", + "Swift" + ] + }, + { + "node_id": 169, + "left_child": 166, + "right_child": 168, + "distance": 0.422718, + "n_leaves": 40, + "species": [ + "Rosebay Willowherb", + "White Clover", + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Goats Beard", + "Chiffchaff", + "Garden Warbler", + "Lesser Celandine", + "Cowslip", + "Garlic Mustard", + "Common Vetch", + "Cow Parsley", + "Whitethroat", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Reed Warbler", + "Yellow Flag Iris", + "Bluebell", + "Cuckoo", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Swallow", + "Buttercup", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Green Alkanet", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Common 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+ "Horsetail", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower", + "Swift" + ] + }, + { + "node_id": 170, + "left_child": 86, + "right_child": 128, + "distance": 0.497349, + "n_leaves": 3, + "species": [ + "Redwing", + "Snowdrop", + "Winter Aconite" + ], + "left_species": [ + "Redwing" + ], + "right_species": [ + "Snowdrop", + "Winter Aconite" + ] + }, + { + "node_id": 171, + "left_child": 27, + "right_child": 167, + "distance": 0.505187, + "n_leaves": 44, + "species": [ + "Jay", + "Collared Dove", + "House Sparrow", + "Chaffinch", + "Coal Tit", + "Germander Speedwell", + "Common Cleavers", + "Blackcap", + "Skylark", + "Mallard", + "Pied Wagtail", + "Shepherds Purse", + "Daisy", + "Nettle", + "Common Kestrel", + "Long Tailed Tit", + "Buzzard", + "Blackbird", + "Blue Tit", + "Dunnock", + "Canada Goose", + "Song Thrush", + "Greylag Goose", + "Great Tit", + "Pheasant", + "Greenfinch", + "Wren", + "Dandelion", + "Rook", + "Cormorant", + "Mistle Thrush", + "Robin", + "Mute 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0.589869, + "n_leaves": 43, + "species": [ + "Rosebay Willowherb", + "White Clover", + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Goats Beard", + "Chiffchaff", + "Garden Warbler", + "Lesser Celandine", + "Cowslip", + "Garlic Mustard", + "Common Vetch", + "Cow Parsley", + "Whitethroat", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Reed Warbler", + "Yellow Flag Iris", + "Bluebell", + "Cuckoo", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Swallow", + "Buttercup", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Green Alkanet", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Common Comfrey", + "Oxeye Daisy", + "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "Honeysuckle", + "Red Campion", + "Dog Rose", + "Teasel", + "Red Clover", + "White Campion", + "Cuckoo Pint", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "Horsetail", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower", + "Swift", + "Redwing", + "Snowdrop", + "Winter Aconite" + ], + "left_species": [ + "Rosebay Willowherb", + "White Clover", + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Goats Beard", + "Chiffchaff", + "Garden Warbler", + "Lesser Celandine", + "Cowslip", + "Garlic Mustard", + "Common Vetch", + "Cow Parsley", + "Whitethroat", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Reed Warbler", + "Yellow Flag Iris", + "Bluebell", + "Cuckoo", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Swallow", + "Buttercup", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Green Alkanet", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Common Comfrey", + "Oxeye Daisy", + "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "Honeysuckle", + "Red Campion", + "Dog Rose", + "Teasel", + "Red Clover", + "White Campion", + "Cuckoo Pint", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "Horsetail", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower", + "Swift" + ], + "right_species": [ + "Redwing", + "Snowdrop", + "Winter Aconite" + ] + }, + { + "node_id": 173, + "left_child": 171, + "right_child": 172, + "distance": 0.607359, + "n_leaves": 87, + "species": [ + "Jay", + "Collared Dove", + "House Sparrow", + "Chaffinch", + "Coal Tit", + "Germander Speedwell", + "Common Cleavers", + "Blackcap", + "Skylark", + "Mallard", + "Pied Wagtail", + "Shepherds Purse", + "Daisy", + "Nettle", + "Common Kestrel", + "Long Tailed Tit", + "Buzzard", + "Blackbird", + "Blue Tit", + "Dunnock", + "Canada Goose", + "Song Thrush", + "Greylag Goose", + "Great Tit", + "Pheasant", + "Greenfinch", + "Wren", + "Dandelion", + "Rook", + "Cormorant", + "Mistle Thrush", + "Robin", + "Mute Swan", + "Herring Gull", + "Black Headed Gull", + "Coot", + "Grey Heron", + "Jackdaw", + "Red Kite", + "Goldfinch", + "Woodpigeon", + "Common Starling", + "Crow", + "Magpie", + "Rosebay Willowherb", + "White Clover", + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Goats Beard", + "Chiffchaff", + "Garden Warbler", + "Lesser Celandine", + "Cowslip", + "Garlic Mustard", + "Common Vetch", + "Cow Parsley", + "Whitethroat", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Reed Warbler", + "Yellow Flag Iris", + "Bluebell", + "Cuckoo", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Swallow", + "Buttercup", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Green Alkanet", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Common Comfrey", + 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Starling", + "Crow", + "Magpie" + ], + "right_species": [ + "Rosebay Willowherb", + "White Clover", + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Goats Beard", + "Chiffchaff", + "Garden Warbler", + "Lesser Celandine", + "Cowslip", + "Garlic Mustard", + "Common Vetch", + "Cow Parsley", + "Whitethroat", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Reed Warbler", + "Yellow Flag Iris", + "Bluebell", + "Cuckoo", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Swallow", + "Buttercup", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Green Alkanet", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Common Comfrey", + "Oxeye Daisy", + "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "Honeysuckle", + "Red Campion", + "Dog Rose", + "Teasel", + "Red Clover", + "White Campion", + "Cuckoo Pint", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "Horsetail", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower", + "Swift", + "Redwing", + "Snowdrop", + "Winter Aconite" + ] + }, + { + "node_id": 174, + "left_child": 87, + "right_child": 173, + "distance": 0.697624, + "n_leaves": 88, + "species": [ + "Snowberry", + "Jay", + "Collared Dove", + "House Sparrow", + "Chaffinch", + "Coal Tit", + "Germander Speedwell", + "Common Cleavers", + "Blackcap", + "Skylark", + "Mallard", + "Pied Wagtail", + "Shepherds Purse", + "Daisy", + "Nettle", + "Common Kestrel", + "Long Tailed Tit", + "Buzzard", + "Blackbird", + "Blue Tit", + "Dunnock", + "Canada Goose", + "Song Thrush", + "Greylag Goose", + "Great Tit", + "Pheasant", + "Greenfinch", + "Wren", + "Dandelion", + "Rook", + "Cormorant", + "Mistle Thrush", + "Robin", + "Mute Swan", + "Herring Gull", + "Black Headed Gull", + "Coot", + "Grey Heron", + "Jackdaw", + "Red Kite", + "Goldfinch", + "Woodpigeon", + "Common Starling", + "Crow", + "Magpie", + "Rosebay Willowherb", + "White Clover", + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Goats Beard", + "Chiffchaff", + "Garden Warbler", + "Lesser Celandine", + "Cowslip", + "Garlic Mustard", + "Common Vetch", + "Cow Parsley", + "Whitethroat", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Reed Warbler", + "Yellow Flag Iris", + "Bluebell", + "Cuckoo", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Swallow", + "Buttercup", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Green Alkanet", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Common Comfrey", + "Oxeye Daisy", + "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "Honeysuckle", + "Red Campion", + "Dog Rose", + "Teasel", + "Red Clover", + "White Campion", + "Cuckoo Pint", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "Horsetail", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower", + "Swift", + "Redwing", + "Snowdrop", + "Winter Aconite" + ], + "left_species": [ + "Snowberry" + ], + "right_species": [ + "Jay", + "Collared Dove", + "House Sparrow", + "Chaffinch", + "Coal Tit", + "Germander Speedwell", + "Common Cleavers", + "Blackcap", + "Skylark", + "Mallard", + "Pied Wagtail", + "Shepherds Purse", + "Daisy", + "Nettle", + "Common Kestrel", + "Long Tailed Tit", + "Buzzard", + "Blackbird", + "Blue Tit", + "Dunnock", + "Canada Goose", + "Song Thrush", + "Greylag Goose", + "Great Tit", + "Pheasant", + "Greenfinch", + "Wren", + "Dandelion", + "Rook", + "Cormorant", + "Mistle Thrush", + "Robin", + "Mute Swan", + "Herring Gull", + "Black Headed Gull", + "Coot", + "Grey Heron", + "Jackdaw", + "Red Kite", + "Goldfinch", + "Woodpigeon", + "Common Starling", + "Crow", + "Magpie", + "Rosebay Willowherb", + "White Clover", + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Goats Beard", + "Chiffchaff", + "Garden Warbler", + "Lesser Celandine", + "Cowslip", + "Garlic Mustard", + "Common Vetch", + "Cow Parsley", + "Whitethroat", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Reed Warbler", + "Yellow Flag Iris", + "Bluebell", + "Cuckoo", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Swallow", + "Buttercup", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Green Alkanet", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Common Comfrey", + "Oxeye Daisy", + "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "Honeysuckle", + "Red Campion", + "Dog Rose", + "Teasel", + "Red Clover", + "White Campion", + "Cuckoo Pint", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "Horsetail", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower", + "Swift", + "Redwing", + "Snowdrop", + "Winter Aconite" + ] + } + ] + }, + "species_cluster_ids": { + "Black Headed Gull": 4, + "Blackbird": 3, + "Blackcap": 3, + "Blue Tit": 3, + "Buzzard": 3, + "Canada Goose": 3, + "Chaffinch": 3, + "Coal Tit": 3, + "Collared Dove": 3, + "Common Cleavers": 3, + "Common Kestrel": 3, + "Common Starling": 4, + "Coot": 4, + "Cormorant": 4, + "Crow": 4, + "Daisy": 3, + "Dandelion": 3, + "Dunnock": 3, + "Germander Speedwell": 3, + "Goldfinch": 4, + "Great Tit": 3, + "Greenfinch": 3, + "Grey Heron": 4, + "Greylag Goose": 3, + "Herring Gull": 4, + "House Sparrow": 3, + "Jackdaw": 4, + "Jay": 2, + "Long Tailed Tit": 3, + "Magpie": 4, + "Mallard": 3, + "Mistle Thrush": 4, + "Mute Swan": 4, + "Nettle": 3, + "Pheasant": 3, + "Pied Wagtail": 3, + "Red Kite": 4, + "Robin": 4, + "Rook": 3, + "Shepherds Purse": 3, + "Skylark": 3, + "Song Thrush": 3, + "Woodpigeon": 4, + "Wren": 3, + "Bluebell": 6, + "Brimstone Butterfly": 8, + "Buttercup": 8, + "Chiffchaff": 6, + "Common Comfrey": 8, + "Common Poppy": 8, + "Common Vetch": 6, + "Cornflower": 8, + "Cow Parsley": 6, + "Cowslip": 6, + "Cuckoo": 6, + "Cuckoo Pint": 8, + "Dog Rose": 8, + "Doves Foot Cranesbill": 8, + "Garden Warbler": 6, + "Garlic Mustard": 6, + "Gatekeeper Butterfly": 5, + "Goats Beard": 5, + "Green Alkanet": 8, + "Honeysuckle": 8, + "Horsetail": 8, + "Lesser Celandine": 6, + "Meadow Brown Butterfly": 8, + "Orange Tip Butterfly": 6, + "Oxeye Daisy": 8, + "Peacock Butterfly": 8, + "Red Admiral Butterfly": 7, + "Red Campion": 8, + "Red Clover": 8, + "Red Dead Nettle": 8, + "Reed Warbler": 6, + "Rosebay Willowherb": 5, + "Snowdrop": 10, + "Speckled Wood Butterfly": 8, + "Swallow": 8, + "Swift": 8, + "Teasel": 8, + "White Campion": 8, + "White Clover": 5, + "Whitethroat": 6, + "Winter Aconite": 10, + "Yellow Flag Iris": 6, + "Redwing": 9, + "Snowberry": 1 + }, + "clusters": [ + { + "cluster_id": 1, + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Snowberry" + ], + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Snowberry, mainly representing winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The defining pattern is a winter peak around September, a moderate autumn component, moderate summer suppression, and balanced response dynamics. Its defining traits include year wrapping winter presence, atypical winter peak, and moderate autumn component. Compared with the full species set, autumn to winter weight ratio is higher than the whole-set average and trough month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "dominant_model_family": "winter_presence", + "dominant_primary_class": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 9.0, + "min": 9.0, + "max": 9.0 + }, + "trough_month": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 3.0, + "min": 3.0, + "max": 3.0 + }, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 0.452991, + "min": 0.452991, + "max": 0.452991 + }, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 1.409756, + "min": 1.409756, + "max": 1.409756 + }, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 6.0, + "min": 6.0, + "max": 6.0 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 0.145, + "min": 0.145, + "max": 0.145 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "winter_presence", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "winter_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "medium", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "medium", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "baseline_presence": { + "dominant": "low", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "low", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "atypical", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "atypical", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "summer_suppression": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "autumn_component": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "response_dynamics": { + "dominant": "balanced", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "balanced", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "year_wrapping_winter_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "atypical_winter_peak", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_autumn_component", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_summer_suppression", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "low_baseline_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_winter_bump", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "balanced_response_dynamics", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 0.452991, + "global_mean": 0.077325, + "difference": 0.375666, + "scaled_difference": 0.879448, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "trough_month", + "cluster_mean": 3.0, + "global_mean": 8.396314, + "difference": -5.396314, + "scaled_difference": -0.674539, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "active_month_count_ge_0_10", + "cluster_mean": 6.0, + "global_mean": 6.5, + "difference": -0.5, + "scaled_difference": -0.5, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 9.0, + "global_mean": 4.523587, + "difference": 4.476413, + "scaled_difference": 0.497379, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.145, + "global_mean": 0.187477, + "difference": -0.042477, + "scaled_difference": -0.07349, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "decay_to_growth_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 1.409756, + "global_mean": 1.519766, + "difference": -0.11001, + "scaled_difference": -0.058354, + "direction": "lower" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "winter_presence", + "atypical", + "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "mean_peak_month_9.0", + "year_wrapping_winter_presence", + "atypical_winter_peak", + "moderate_autumn_component" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 2, + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Jay" + ], + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Jay, mainly representing resident with summer detectability collapse. Detectability peaks around October and and is lowest around August. The shared pattern includes weak baseline presence, moderate summer suppression, meaningful autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Its defining traits include resident detectability pattern, weak baseline presence, and autumn detectability peak. Compared with the full species set, fit score is higher than the whole-set average and target amplitude is lower than the whole-set average.", + "dominant_model_family": "resident_detectability", + "dominant_primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 10.0, + "min": 10.0, + "max": 10.0 + }, + "trough_month": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 8.0, + "min": 8.0, + "max": 8.0 + }, + "target_mean_value": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 0.108596, + "min": 0.108596, + "max": 0.108596 + }, + "target_amplitude": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 0.247474, + "min": 0.247474, + "max": 0.247474 + }, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 0.14547, + "min": 0.14547, + "max": 0.14547 + }, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 0.130841, + "min": 0.130841, + "max": 0.130841 + }, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 0.738318, + "min": 0.738318, + "max": 0.738318 + }, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 1.329609, + "min": 1.329609, + "max": 1.329609 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 0.581, + "min": 0.581, + "max": 0.581 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "resident_detectability", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "resident_detectability", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "low", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "low", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "baseline_presence": { + "dominant": "weak", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "weak", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "autumn", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "autumn", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "summer_suppression": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "autumn_component": { + "dominant": "meaningful", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "meaningful", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "response_dynamics": { + "dominant": "rapid_decline_biased", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "rapid_decline_biased", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "resident_detectability_pattern", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "weak_baseline_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "autumn_detectability_peak", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "summer_detectability_trough", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "weak_spring_carryover", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_summer_suppression", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "meaningful_autumn_component", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "meaningful_year_end_component", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.581, + "global_mean": 0.187477, + "difference": 0.393523, + "scaled_difference": 0.680836, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "target_amplitude", + "cluster_mean": 0.247474, + "global_mean": 0.632112, + "difference": -0.384638, + "scaled_difference": -0.649486, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 10.0, + "global_mean": 4.523587, + "difference": 5.476413, + "scaled_difference": 0.60849, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 0.738318, + "global_mean": 0.431529, + "difference": 0.306789, + "scaled_difference": 0.404264, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "target_mean_value", + "cluster_mean": 0.108596, + "global_mean": 0.400373, + "difference": -0.291777, + "scaled_difference": -0.385093, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "baseline_to_peak_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 0.14547, + "global_mean": 0.277962, + "difference": -0.132492, + "scaled_difference": -0.222278, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 0.130841, + "global_mean": 0.077325, + "difference": 0.053516, + "scaled_difference": 0.125283, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "decay_to_growth_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 1.329609, + "global_mean": 1.519766, + "difference": -0.190157, + "scaled_difference": -0.100868, + "direction": "lower" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "resident_detectability", + "autumn", + "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "mean_peak_month_10.0", + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "autumn_detectability_peak" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 3, + "n_species": 28, + "species": [ + "Collared Dove", + "House Sparrow", + "Chaffinch", + "Coal Tit", + "Germander Speedwell", + "Common Cleavers", + "Blackcap", + "Skylark", + "Mallard", + "Pied Wagtail", + "Shepherds Purse", + "Daisy", + "Nettle", + "Common Kestrel", + "Long Tailed Tit", + "Buzzard", + "Blackbird", + "Blue Tit", + "Dunnock", + "Canada Goose", + "Song Thrush", + "Greylag Goose", + "Great Tit", + "Pheasant", + "Greenfinch", + "Wren", + "Dandelion", + "Rook" + ], + "description": "Cluster of 28 species, mainly representing resident with summer detectability collapse. Detectability peaks around April and and is lowest around September. The shared pattern includes weak baseline presence, moderate summer suppression, weak autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Common high-support traits include resident detectability pattern, moderate summer suppression, and weak autumn component.", + "dominant_model_family": "resident_detectability", + "dominant_primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 28, + "mean": 4.292004, + "min": 3.0, + "max": 6.0 + }, + "trough_month": { + "n": 28, + "mean": 8.599991, + "min": 5.0, + "max": 11.0 + }, + "target_mean_value": { + "n": 28, + "mean": 0.335226, + "min": 0.151548, + "max": 0.614964 + }, + "target_amplitude": { + "n": 28, + "mean": 0.654807, + "min": 0.470688, + "max": 0.839693 + }, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": { + "n": 28, + "mean": 0.215582, + "min": 0.048953, + "max": 0.50113 + }, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": { + "n": 28, + "mean": 0.051784, + "min": 0.02583, + "max": 0.084184 + }, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": { + "n": 28, + "mean": 0.353438, + "min": 0.187719, + "max": 0.619266 + }, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": { + "n": 28, + "mean": 1.61339, + "min": 0.874426, + "max": 2.111575 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 28, + "mean": 0.320214, + "min": 0.159, + "max": 0.549 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "resident_detectability", + "dominant_count": 28, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "resident_detectability", + "count": 28, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "dominant_count": 28, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "count": 28, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "medium", + "dominant_count": 12, + "dominant_fraction": 0.428571, + "values": [ + { + "value": "medium", + "count": 12, + "fraction": 0.428571 + }, + { + "value": "low", + "count": 11, + "fraction": 0.392857 + }, + { + "value": "high", + "count": 5, + "fraction": 0.178571 + } + ] + }, + "baseline_presence": { + "dominant": "weak", + "dominant_count": 13, + "dominant_fraction": 0.464286, + "values": [ + { + "value": "weak", + "count": 13, + "fraction": 0.464286 + }, + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 8, + "fraction": 0.285714 + }, + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 7, + "fraction": 0.25 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "spring", + "dominant_count": 15, + "dominant_fraction": 0.535714, + "values": [ + { + "value": "spring", + "count": 15, + "fraction": 0.535714 + }, + { + "value": "late_spring_early_summer", + "count": 13, + "fraction": 0.464286 + } + ] + }, + "summer_suppression": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 27, + "dominant_fraction": 0.964286, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 27, + "fraction": 0.964286 + }, + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.035714 + } + ] + }, + "autumn_component": { + "dominant": "weak", + "dominant_count": 25, + "dominant_fraction": 0.892857, + "values": [ + { + "value": "weak", + "count": 25, + "fraction": 0.892857 + }, + { + "value": "minimal", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 0.107143 + } + ] + }, + "response_dynamics": { + "dominant": "rapid_decline_biased", + "dominant_count": 22, + "dominant_fraction": 0.785714, + "values": [ + { + "value": "rapid_decline_biased", + "count": 22, + "fraction": 0.785714 + }, + { + "value": "decline_biased", + "count": 6, + "fraction": 0.214286 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "resident_detectability_pattern", + "count": 28, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_summer_suppression", + "count": 27, + "fraction": 0.964286 + }, + { + "trait": "weak_autumn_component", + "count": 25, + "fraction": 0.892857 + }, + { + "trait": "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics", + "count": 22, + "fraction": 0.785714 + }, + { + "trait": "meaningful_year_end_component", + "count": 20, + "fraction": 0.714286 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "count": 15, + "fraction": 0.535714 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "count": 15, + "fraction": 0.535714 + }, + { + "trait": "weak_spring_carryover", + "count": 15, + "fraction": 0.535714 + }, + { + "trait": "spring_detectability_peak", + "count": 15, + "fraction": 0.535714 + }, + { + "trait": "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "count": 13, + "fraction": 0.464286 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.320214, + "global_mean": 0.187477, + "difference": 0.132737, + "scaled_difference": 0.229649, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "baseline_to_peak_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 0.215582, + "global_mean": 0.277962, + "difference": -0.06238, + "scaled_difference": -0.104653, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 0.353438, + "global_mean": 0.431529, + "difference": -0.078091, + "scaled_difference": -0.102903, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "target_mean_value", + "cluster_mean": 0.335226, + "global_mean": 0.400373, + "difference": -0.065147, + "scaled_difference": -0.085982, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 0.051784, + "global_mean": 0.077325, + "difference": -0.025541, + "scaled_difference": -0.059792, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "decay_to_growth_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 1.61339, + "global_mean": 1.519766, + "difference": 0.093624, + "scaled_difference": 0.049662, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "target_amplitude", + "cluster_mean": 0.654807, + "global_mean": 0.632112, + "difference": 0.022695, + "scaled_difference": 0.038322, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 4.292004, + "global_mean": 4.523587, + "difference": -0.231583, + "scaled_difference": -0.025731, + "direction": "lower" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "resident_detectability", + "spring", + "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "mean_peak_month_4.292004", + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "weak_autumn_component" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 4, + "n_species": 15, + "species": [ + "Cormorant", + "Mistle Thrush", + "Robin", + "Mute Swan", + "Herring Gull", + "Black Headed Gull", + "Coot", + "Grey Heron", + "Jackdaw", + "Red Kite", + "Goldfinch", + "Woodpigeon", + "Common Starling", + "Crow", + "Magpie" + ], + "description": "Cluster of 15 species, mainly representing resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. Detectability peaks around February and and is lowest around August. The shared pattern includes strong baseline presence, strong summer suppression, weak autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Common high-support traits include resident detectability pattern, meaningful year end component, and weak autumn component. Compared with the full species set, fit score is higher than the whole-set average.", + "dominant_model_family": "resident_detectability", + "dominant_primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 15, + "mean": 2.334613, + "min": 2.0, + "max": 5.0 + }, + "trough_month": { + "n": 15, + "mean": 8.258615, + "min": 7.0, + "max": 10.0 + }, + "target_mean_value": { + "n": 15, + "mean": 0.541431, + "min": 0.138453, + "max": 0.866275 + }, + "target_amplitude": { + "n": 15, + "mean": 0.615392, + "min": 0.423891, + "max": 0.755396 + }, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": { + "n": 15, + "mean": 0.403236, + "min": 0.076952, + "max": 0.645018 + }, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": { + "n": 15, + "mean": 0.085754, + "min": 0.052863, + "max": 0.135922 + }, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": { + "n": 15, + "mean": 0.556847, + "min": 0.361702, + "max": 0.946602 + }, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": { + "n": 15, + "mean": 1.289128, + "min": 0.772803, + "max": 1.610954 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 15, + "mean": 0.3386, + "min": 0.154, + "max": 0.497 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "resident_detectability", + "dominant_count": 15, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "resident_detectability", + "count": 15, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "dominant_count": 8, + "dominant_fraction": 0.533333, + "values": [ + { + "value": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "count": 8, + "fraction": 0.533333 + }, + { + "value": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "count": 7, + "fraction": 0.466667 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "medium", + "dominant_count": 8, + "dominant_fraction": 0.533333, + "values": [ + { + "value": "medium", + "count": 8, + "fraction": 0.533333 + }, + { + "value": "low", + "count": 6, + "fraction": 0.4 + }, + { + "value": "high", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.066667 + } + ] + }, + "baseline_presence": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 10, + "dominant_fraction": 0.666667, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 10, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "value": "weak", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 0.2 + }, + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.133333 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "winter", + "dominant_count": 12, + "dominant_fraction": 0.8, + "values": [ + { + "value": "winter", + "count": 12, + "fraction": 0.8 + }, + { + "value": "spring", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.133333 + }, + { + "value": "late_spring_early_summer", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.066667 + } + ] + }, + "summer_suppression": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 10, + "dominant_fraction": 0.666667, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 10, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 5, + "fraction": 0.333333 + } + ] + }, + "autumn_component": { + "dominant": "weak", + "dominant_count": 13, + "dominant_fraction": 0.866667, + "values": [ + { + "value": "weak", + "count": 13, + "fraction": 0.866667 + }, + { + "value": "meaningful", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.133333 + } + ] + }, + "response_dynamics": { + "dominant": "rapid_decline_biased", + "dominant_count": 8, + "dominant_fraction": 0.533333, + "values": [ + { + "value": "rapid_decline_biased", + "count": 8, + "fraction": 0.533333 + }, + { + "value": "decline_biased", + "count": 7, + "fraction": 0.466667 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "resident_detectability_pattern", + "count": 15, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "meaningful_year_end_component", + "count": 15, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "weak_autumn_component", + "count": 13, + "fraction": 0.866667 + }, + { + "trait": "winter_detectability_peak", + "count": 12, + "fraction": 0.8 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "count": 12, + "fraction": 0.8 + }, + { + "trait": "summer_detectability_trough", + "count": 10, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_summer_suppression", + "count": 10, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_baseline_presence", + "count": 10, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "count": 8, + "fraction": 0.533333 + }, + { + "trait": "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics", + "count": 8, + "fraction": 0.533333 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.3386, + "global_mean": 0.187477, + "difference": 0.151123, + "scaled_difference": 0.261458, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 2.334613, + "global_mean": 4.523587, + "difference": -2.188974, + "scaled_difference": -0.243219, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "baseline_to_peak_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 0.403236, + "global_mean": 0.277962, + "difference": 0.125274, + "scaled_difference": 0.210168, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "target_mean_value", + "cluster_mean": 0.541431, + "global_mean": 0.400373, + "difference": 0.141058, + "scaled_difference": 0.186171, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 0.556847, + "global_mean": 0.431529, + "difference": 0.125318, + "scaled_difference": 0.165135, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "decay_to_growth_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 1.289128, + "global_mean": 1.519766, + "difference": -0.230638, + "scaled_difference": -0.122341, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "target_amplitude", + "cluster_mean": 0.615392, + "global_mean": 0.632112, + "difference": -0.01672, + "scaled_difference": -0.028233, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 0.085754, + "global_mean": 0.077325, + "difference": 0.008429, + "scaled_difference": 0.019733, + "direction": "higher" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "resident_detectability", + "winter", + "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "mean_peak_month_2.334613", + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "weak_autumn_component" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 5, + "n_species": 4, + "species": [ + "Rosebay Willowherb", + "White Clover", + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Goats Beard" + ], + "description": "Cluster of 4 species, mainly representing moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from June to September, with a mean peak around July, and and an average width of 3.0 months. It is characterised by moderate season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak, moderate season, and central peak alignment. Compared with the full species set, season start month is higher than the whole-set average and fit score is lower than the whole-set average.", + "dominant_model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 4, + "mean": 7.045899, + "min": 6.175, + "max": 8.265 + }, + "season_start_month": { + "n": 4, + "mean": 5.64607, + "min": 5.005, + "max": 6.125 + }, + "season_end_month": { + "n": 4, + "mean": 8.614523, + "min": 8.3, + "max": 9.3 + }, + "season_width_months": { + "n": 4, + "mean": 2.9725, + "min": 2.435, + "max": 3.305 + }, + "season_midpoint_month": { + "n": 4, + "mean": 7.130672, + "min": 6.6575, + "max": 7.6875 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 4, + "mean": 0.01975, + "min": 0.009, + "max": 0.037 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 4, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "seasonal_presence", + "count": 4, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 4, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "count": 4, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "high", + "dominant_count": 4, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "high", + "count": 4, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "summer", + "dominant_count": 4, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "summer", + "count": 4, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "season_width_class": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 4, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 4, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "window_shape": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 3, + "dominant_fraction": 0.75, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 0.75 + }, + { + "value": "sharp", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.25 + } + ] + }, + "post_peak_decline": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 0.5, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.5 + } + ] + }, + "offseason_suppression": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 3, + "dominant_fraction": 0.75, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 0.75 + }, + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.25 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "summer_peak", + "count": 4, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_season", + "count": 4, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "central_peak_alignment", + "count": 4, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_offseason_suppression", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 0.75 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_seasonal_window", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 0.75 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_post_peak_decline", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "trait": "sharp_seasonal_window", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.25 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.25 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "season_start_month", + "cluster_mean": 5.64607, + "global_mean": 4.000033, + "difference": 1.646037, + "scaled_difference": 0.347265, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.01975, + "global_mean": 0.187477, + "difference": -0.167727, + "scaled_difference": -0.290185, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 7.045899, + "global_mean": 4.523587, + "difference": 2.522312, + "scaled_difference": 0.280257, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_width_months", + "cluster_mean": 2.9725, + "global_mean": 4.392738, + "difference": -1.420238, + "scaled_difference": -0.177419, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_midpoint_month", + "cluster_mean": 7.130672, + "global_mean": 6.288318, + "difference": 0.842354, + "scaled_difference": 0.134939, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_end_month", + "cluster_mean": 8.614523, + "global_mean": 8.703144, + "difference": -0.088621, + "scaled_difference": -0.010204, + "direction": "lower" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "seasonal_presence", + "summer", + "moderate", + "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "mean_peak_month_7.045899", + "summer_peak", + "moderate_season", + "central_peak_alignment" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 6, + "n_species": 13, + "species": [ + "Chiffchaff", + "Garden Warbler", + "Lesser Celandine", + "Cowslip", + "Garlic Mustard", + "Common Vetch", + "Cow Parsley", + "Whitethroat", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Reed Warbler", + "Yellow Flag Iris", + "Bluebell", + "Cuckoo" + ], + "description": "Cluster of 13 species, mainly representing moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to June, with a mean peak around May, and and an average width of 2.6 months. It is characterised by moderate season and sharp active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, central peak alignment, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, fit score is lower than the whole-set average and season end month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "dominant_model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 13, + "mean": 4.68437, + "min": 3.12, + "max": 5.49 + }, + "season_start_month": { + "n": 13, + "mean": 3.746148, + "min": 2.035, + "max": 5.115 + }, + "season_end_month": { + "n": 13, + "mean": 6.316123, + "min": 5.25, + "max": 7.395 + }, + "season_width_months": { + "n": 13, + "mean": 2.588846, + "min": 0.77, + "max": 4.46 + }, + "season_midpoint_month": { + "n": 13, + "mean": 5.028751, + "min": 3.765, + "max": 5.8675 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 13, + "mean": 0.028385, + "min": 0.006, + "max": 0.065 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 13, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "seasonal_presence", + "count": 13, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 8, + "dominant_fraction": 0.615385, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "count": 8, + "fraction": 0.615385 + }, + { + "value": "narrow_spring_seasonal_presence", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 0.230769 + }, + { + "value": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.076923 + }, + { + "value": "extended_early_spring_seasonal_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.076923 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "high", + "dominant_count": 13, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "high", + "count": 13, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "spring", + "dominant_count": 12, + "dominant_fraction": 0.923077, + "values": [ + { + "value": "spring", + "count": 12, + "fraction": 0.923077 + }, + { + "value": "early_spring", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.076923 + } + ] + }, + "season_width_class": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 8, + "dominant_fraction": 0.615385, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 8, + "fraction": 0.615385 + }, + { + "value": "narrow", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 0.230769 + }, + { + "value": "broad", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.153846 + } + ] + }, + "window_shape": { + "dominant": "sharp", + "dominant_count": 8, + "dominant_fraction": 0.615385, + "values": [ + { + "value": "sharp", + "count": 8, + "fraction": 0.615385 + }, + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 5, + "fraction": 0.384615 + } + ] + }, + "post_peak_decline": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 7, + "dominant_fraction": 0.538462, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 7, + "fraction": 0.538462 + }, + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 6, + "fraction": 0.461538 + } + ] + }, + "offseason_suppression": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 10, + "dominant_fraction": 0.769231, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 10, + "fraction": 0.769231 + }, + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 0.230769 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "spring_peak", + "count": 12, + "fraction": 0.923077 + }, + { + "trait": "central_peak_alignment", + "count": 11, + "fraction": 0.846154 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_offseason_suppression", + "count": 10, + "fraction": 0.769231 + }, + { + "trait": "sharp_seasonal_window", + "count": 8, + "fraction": 0.615385 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_season", + "count": 8, + "fraction": 0.615385 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "count": 7, + "fraction": 0.538462 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_post_peak_decline", + "count": 6, + "fraction": 0.461538 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_seasonal_window", + "count": 5, + "fraction": 0.384615 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 0.230769 + }, + { + "trait": "narrow_season", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 0.230769 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.028385, + "global_mean": 0.187477, + "difference": -0.159092, + "scaled_difference": -0.275246, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_end_month", + "cluster_mean": 6.316123, + "global_mean": 8.703144, + "difference": -2.387021, + "scaled_difference": -0.274844, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_width_months", + "cluster_mean": 2.588846, + "global_mean": 4.392738, + "difference": -1.803892, + "scaled_difference": -0.225346, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_midpoint_month", + "cluster_mean": 5.028751, + "global_mean": 6.288318, + "difference": -1.259567, + "scaled_difference": -0.201773, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_start_month", + "cluster_mean": 3.746148, + "global_mean": 4.000033, + "difference": -0.253885, + "scaled_difference": -0.053562, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 4.68437, + "global_mean": 4.523587, + "difference": 0.160783, + "scaled_difference": 0.017865, + "direction": "higher" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "seasonal_presence", + "spring", + "moderate", + "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "mean_peak_month_4.68437", + "spring_peak", + "central_peak_alignment", + "strong_offseason_suppression" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 7, + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Red Admiral Butterfly" + ], + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Red Admiral Butterfly, mainly representing extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from March to December, with a mean peak around August, and and an average width of 8.8 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Its defining traits include summer peak, very broad season, and moderate seasonal window. Compared with the full species set, season width months is higher than the whole-set average and peak month is higher than the whole-set average.", + "dominant_model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 7.62, + "min": 7.62, + "max": 7.62 + }, + "season_start_month": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 2.855, + "min": 2.855, + "max": 2.855 + }, + "season_end_month": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 11.63, + "min": 11.63, + "max": 11.63 + }, + "season_width_months": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 8.775, + "min": 8.775, + "max": 8.775 + }, + "season_midpoint_month": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 7.2425, + "min": 7.2425, + "max": 7.2425 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 0.076, + "min": 0.076, + "max": 0.076 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "seasonal_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "medium", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "medium", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "summer", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "summer", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "season_width_class": { + "dominant": "very_broad", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "very_broad", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "window_shape": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "post_peak_decline": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "offseason_suppression": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "summer_peak", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "very_broad_season", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_seasonal_window", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "central_peak_alignment", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "season_width_months", + "cluster_mean": 8.775, + "global_mean": 4.392738, + "difference": 4.382262, + "scaled_difference": 0.547441, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 7.62, + "global_mean": 4.523587, + "difference": 3.096413, + "scaled_difference": 0.344046, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_end_month", + "cluster_mean": 11.63, + "global_mean": 8.703144, + "difference": 2.926856, + "scaled_difference": 0.337001, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_start_month", + "cluster_mean": 2.855, + "global_mean": 4.000033, + "difference": -1.145033, + "scaled_difference": -0.241568, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.076, + "global_mean": 0.187477, + "difference": -0.111477, + "scaled_difference": -0.192867, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_midpoint_month", + "cluster_mean": 7.2425, + "global_mean": 6.288318, + "difference": 0.954182, + "scaled_difference": 0.152853, + "direction": "higher" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "seasonal_presence", + "summer", + "very_broad", + "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "mean_peak_month_7.62", + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 8, + "n_species": 22, + "species": [ + "Swallow", + "Buttercup", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Green Alkanet", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Common Comfrey", + "Oxeye Daisy", + "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "Honeysuckle", + "Red Campion", + "Dog Rose", + "Teasel", + "Red Clover", + "White Campion", + "Cuckoo Pint", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "Horsetail", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower", + "Swift" + ], + "description": "Cluster of 22 species, mainly representing extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to October, with a mean peak around June, and and an average width of 5.8 months. It is characterised by broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include strong offseason suppression, strong post peak decline, and early peak alignment.", + "dominant_model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 22, + "mean": 5.823411, + "min": 4.125, + "max": 8.385 + }, + "season_start_month": { + "n": 22, + "mean": 4.110511, + "min": 2.29, + "max": 6.11 + }, + "season_end_month": { + "n": 22, + "mean": 9.863468, + "min": 8.25, + "max": 11.475 + }, + "season_width_months": { + "n": 22, + "mean": 5.764091, + "min": 4.095, + "max": 7.595 + }, + "season_midpoint_month": { + "n": 22, + "mean": 6.986091, + "min": 5.39, + "max": 8.4675 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 22, + "mean": 0.048545, + "min": 0.017, + "max": 0.09 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 22, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "seasonal_presence", + "count": 22, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 11, + "dominant_fraction": 0.5, + "values": [ + { + "value": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "count": 11, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "value": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "count": 11, + "fraction": 0.5 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "high", + "dominant_count": 20, + "dominant_fraction": 0.909091, + "values": [ + { + "value": "high", + "count": 20, + "fraction": 0.909091 + }, + { + "value": "medium", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.090909 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "spring", + "dominant_count": 11, + "dominant_fraction": 0.5, + "values": [ + { + "value": "spring", + "count": 11, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "value": "summer", + "count": 11, + "fraction": 0.5 + } + ] + }, + "season_width_class": { + "dominant": "broad", + "dominant_count": 12, + "dominant_fraction": 0.545455, + "values": [ + { + "value": "broad", + "count": 12, + "fraction": 0.545455 + }, + { + "value": "very_broad", + "count": 10, + "fraction": 0.454545 + } + ] + }, + "window_shape": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 15, + "dominant_fraction": 0.681818, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 15, + "fraction": 0.681818 + }, + { + "value": "sharp", + "count": 7, + "fraction": 0.318182 + } + ] + }, + "post_peak_decline": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 18, + "dominant_fraction": 0.818182, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 18, + "fraction": 0.818182 + }, + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 4, + "fraction": 0.181818 + } + ] + }, + "offseason_suppression": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 19, + "dominant_fraction": 0.863636, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 19, + "fraction": 0.863636 + }, + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 0.136364 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "strong_offseason_suppression", + "count": 19, + "fraction": 0.863636 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_post_peak_decline", + "count": 18, + "fraction": 0.818182 + }, + { + "trait": "early_peak_alignment", + "count": 17, + "fraction": 0.772727 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_seasonal_window", + "count": 15, + "fraction": 0.681818 + }, + { + "trait": "broad_season", + "count": 12, + "fraction": 0.545455 + }, + { + "trait": "spring_peak", + "count": 11, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "trait": "summer_peak", + "count": 11, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "trait": "very_broad_season", + "count": 10, + "fraction": 0.454545 + }, + { + "trait": "sharp_seasonal_window", + "count": 7, + "fraction": 0.318182 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "count": 4, + "fraction": 0.181818 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.048545, + "global_mean": 0.187477, + "difference": -0.138932, + "scaled_difference": -0.240367, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_width_months", + "cluster_mean": 5.764091, + "global_mean": 4.392738, + "difference": 1.371353, + "scaled_difference": 0.171312, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 5.823411, + "global_mean": 4.523587, + "difference": 1.299824, + "scaled_difference": 0.144425, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_end_month", + "cluster_mean": 9.863468, + "global_mean": 8.703144, + "difference": 1.160324, + "scaled_difference": 0.133601, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_midpoint_month", + "cluster_mean": 6.986091, + "global_mean": 6.288318, + "difference": 0.697773, + "scaled_difference": 0.111778, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_start_month", + "cluster_mean": 4.110511, + "global_mean": 4.000033, + "difference": 0.110478, + "scaled_difference": 0.023308, + "direction": "higher" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "seasonal_presence", + "spring", + "broad", + "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "mean_peak_month_5.823411", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "early_peak_alignment" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 9, + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Redwing" + ], + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Redwing, mainly representing winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The defining pattern is a winter peak around January, a moderate autumn component, moderate summer suppression, and slow arrival fast departure response dynamics. Its defining traits include year wrapping winter presence, core winter winter peak, and moderate autumn component. Compared with the full species set, decay to growth ratio is higher than the whole-set average and active month count ge 0 10 is higher than the whole-set average.", + "dominant_model_family": "winter_presence", + "dominant_primary_class": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 1.0, + "min": 1.0, + "max": 1.0 + }, + "trough_month": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 5.0, + "min": 5.0, + "max": 5.0 + }, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 0.236867, + "min": 0.236867, + "max": 0.236867 + }, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 2.658009, + "min": 2.658009, + "max": 2.658009 + }, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 7.0, + "min": 7.0, + "max": 7.0 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 1, + "mean": 0.128, + "min": 0.128, + "max": 0.128 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "winter_presence", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "winter_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "medium", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "medium", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "baseline_presence": { + "dominant": "low", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "low", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "core_winter", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "core_winter", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "summer_suppression": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "autumn_component": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "response_dynamics": { + "dominant": "slow_arrival_fast_departure", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "slow_arrival_fast_departure", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "year_wrapping_winter_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "core_winter_winter_peak", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_autumn_component", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_summer_suppression", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "low_baseline_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_winter_bump", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "slow_arrival_fast_departure_response_dynamics", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "decay_to_growth_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 2.658009, + "global_mean": 1.519766, + "difference": 1.138243, + "scaled_difference": 0.603776, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "active_month_count_ge_0_10", + "cluster_mean": 7.0, + "global_mean": 6.5, + "difference": 0.5, + "scaled_difference": 0.5, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "trough_month", + "cluster_mean": 5.0, + "global_mean": 8.396314, + "difference": -3.396314, + "scaled_difference": -0.424539, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 1.0, + "global_mean": 4.523587, + "difference": -3.523587, + "scaled_difference": -0.39151, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio", + "cluster_mean": 0.236867, + "global_mean": 0.077325, + "difference": 0.159542, + "scaled_difference": 0.373494, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.128, + "global_mean": 0.187477, + "difference": -0.059477, + "scaled_difference": -0.102901, + "direction": "lower" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "winter_presence", + "core_winter", + "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "mean_peak_month_1.0", + "year_wrapping_winter_presence", + "core_winter_winter_peak", + "moderate_autumn_component" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 10, + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Snowdrop", + "Winter Aconite" + ], + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing narrow winter seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from January to March, with a mean peak around February, and and an average width of 1.7 months. It is characterised by narrow season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include winter peak, narrow season, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, season end month is lower than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "dominant_model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_primary_class": "narrow_winter_seasonal_presence", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 2.4025, + "min": 2.355, + "max": 2.45 + }, + "season_start_month": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 1.445, + "min": 1.385, + "max": 1.505 + }, + "season_end_month": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 3.1275, + "min": 2.945, + "max": 3.31 + }, + "season_width_months": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 1.6825, + "min": 1.44, + "max": 1.925 + }, + "season_midpoint_month": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 2.28625, + "min": 2.225, + "max": 2.3475 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 0.0035, + "min": 0.003, + "max": 0.004 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "seasonal_presence", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "narrow_winter_seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "narrow_winter_seasonal_presence", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "high", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "high", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "winter", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "winter", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "season_width_class": { + "dominant": "narrow", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "narrow", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "window_shape": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 0.5, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "value": "sharp", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + } + ] + }, + "post_peak_decline": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 0.5, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + } + ] + }, + "offseason_suppression": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "winter_peak", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "narrow_season", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_offseason_suppression", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "central_peak_alignment", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_seasonal_window", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_post_peak_decline", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "trait": "sharp_seasonal_window", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "season_end_month", + "cluster_mean": 3.1275, + "global_mean": 8.703144, + "difference": -5.575644, + "scaled_difference": -0.641985, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_midpoint_month", + "cluster_mean": 2.28625, + "global_mean": 6.288318, + "difference": -4.002068, + "scaled_difference": -0.6411, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_start_month", + "cluster_mean": 1.445, + "global_mean": 4.000033, + "difference": -2.555033, + "scaled_difference": -0.539036, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_width_months", + "cluster_mean": 1.6825, + "global_mean": 4.392738, + "difference": -2.710238, + "scaled_difference": -0.338568, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.0035, + "global_mean": 0.187477, + "difference": -0.183977, + "scaled_difference": -0.318299, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 2.4025, + "global_mean": 4.523587, + "difference": -2.121087, + "scaled_difference": -0.235676, + "direction": "lower" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "seasonal_presence", + "winter", + "narrow", + "narrow_winter_seasonal_presence", + "mean_peak_month_2.4025", + "winter_peak", + "narrow_season", + "strong_offseason_suppression" + ] + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/cluster_dendrogram.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/cluster_dendrogram.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5f47395 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/cluster_dendrogram.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/cluster_summary.txt b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/cluster_summary.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1c4eda4 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/cluster_summary.txt @@ -0,0 +1,286 @@ + +Species clusters +================ + +Cluster 1 +--------- +Single-species cluster containing Snowberry, mainly representing winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The defining pattern is a winter peak around September, a moderate autumn component, moderate summer suppression, and balanced response dynamics. Its defining traits include year wrapping winter presence, atypical winter peak, and moderate autumn component. Compared with the full species set, autumn to winter weight ratio is higher than the whole-set average and trough month is lower than the whole-set average. + +Species (1): + Snowberry + +Dominant model family : winter_presence +Dominant class : winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component +Common traits : year_wrapping_winter_presence (1, 100%), atypical_winter_peak (1, 100%), moderate_autumn_component (1, 100%), moderate_summer_suppression (1, 100%), low_baseline_presence (1, 100%) + +Peak month mean/range : 9.00 (9.00 - 9.00) + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio (higher, scaled_difference=0.88) + - trough_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.67) + - active_month_count_ge_0_10 (lower, scaled_difference=-0.50) + - peak_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.50) + - fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.07) + +Cluster 2 +--------- +Single-species cluster containing Jay, mainly representing resident with summer detectability collapse. Detectability peaks around October and and is lowest around August. The shared pattern includes weak baseline presence, moderate summer suppression, meaningful autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Its defining traits include resident detectability pattern, weak baseline presence, and autumn detectability peak. Compared with the full species set, fit score is higher than the whole-set average and target amplitude is lower than the whole-set average. + +Species (1): + Jay + +Dominant model family : resident_detectability +Dominant class : resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse +Common traits : resident_detectability_pattern (1, 100%), weak_baseline_presence (1, 100%), autumn_detectability_peak (1, 100%), summer_detectability_trough (1, 100%), weak_spring_carryover (1, 100%) + +Peak month mean/range : 10.00 (10.00 - 10.00) + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - fit_score (higher, scaled_difference=0.68) + - target_amplitude (lower, scaled_difference=-0.65) + - peak_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.61) + - year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio (higher, scaled_difference=0.40) + - target_mean_value (lower, scaled_difference=-0.39) + +Cluster 3 +--------- +Cluster of 28 species, mainly representing resident with summer detectability collapse. Detectability peaks around April and and is lowest around September. The shared pattern includes weak baseline presence, moderate summer suppression, weak autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Common high-support traits include resident detectability pattern, moderate summer suppression, and weak autumn component. + +Species (28): + Collared Dove + House Sparrow + Chaffinch + Coal Tit + Germander Speedwell + Common Cleavers + Blackcap + Skylark + Mallard + Pied Wagtail + Shepherds Purse + Daisy + Nettle + Common Kestrel + Long Tailed Tit + Buzzard + Blackbird + Blue Tit + Dunnock + Canada Goose + Song Thrush + Greylag Goose + Great Tit + Pheasant + Greenfinch + Wren + Dandelion + Rook + +Dominant model family : resident_detectability +Dominant class : resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse +Common traits : resident_detectability_pattern (28, 100%), moderate_summer_suppression (27, 96%), weak_autumn_component (25, 89%), rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics (22, 79%), meaningful_year_end_component (20, 71%) + +Peak month mean/range : 4.29 (3.00 - 6.00) + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - fit_score (higher, scaled_difference=0.23) + - baseline_to_peak_ratio (lower, scaled_difference=-0.10) + - year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio (lower, scaled_difference=-0.10) + - target_mean_value (lower, scaled_difference=-0.09) + - autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio (lower, scaled_difference=-0.06) + +Cluster 4 +--------- +Cluster of 15 species, mainly representing resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. Detectability peaks around February and and is lowest around August. The shared pattern includes strong baseline presence, strong summer suppression, weak autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Common high-support traits include resident detectability pattern, meaningful year end component, and weak autumn component. Compared with the full species set, fit score is higher than the whole-set average. + +Species (15): + Cormorant + Mistle Thrush + Robin + Mute Swan + Herring Gull + Black Headed Gull + Coot + Grey Heron + Jackdaw + Red Kite + Goldfinch + Woodpigeon + Common Starling + Crow + Magpie + +Dominant model family : resident_detectability +Dominant class : resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression +Common traits : resident_detectability_pattern (15, 100%), meaningful_year_end_component (15, 100%), weak_autumn_component (13, 87%), winter_detectability_peak (12, 80%), strong_pre_summer_retention (12, 80%) + +Peak month mean/range : 2.33 (2.00 - 5.00) + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - fit_score (higher, scaled_difference=0.26) + - peak_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.24) + - baseline_to_peak_ratio (higher, scaled_difference=0.21) + - target_mean_value (higher, scaled_difference=0.19) + - year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio (higher, scaled_difference=0.17) + +Cluster 5 +--------- +Cluster of 4 species, mainly representing moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from June to September, with a mean peak around July, and and an average width of 3.0 months. It is characterised by moderate season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak, moderate season, and central peak alignment. Compared with the full species set, season start month is higher than the whole-set average and fit score is lower than the whole-set average. + +Species (4): + Rosebay Willowherb + White Clover + Gatekeeper Butterfly + Goats Beard + +Dominant model family : seasonal_presence +Dominant class : moderate_summer_seasonal_presence +Common traits : summer_peak (4, 100%), moderate_season (4, 100%), central_peak_alignment (4, 100%), strong_offseason_suppression (3, 75%), moderate_seasonal_window (3, 75%) + +Peak month mean/range : 7.05 (6.17 - 8.27) +Season width mean : 2.97 months + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - season_start_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.35) + - fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.29) + - peak_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.28) + - season_width_months (lower, scaled_difference=-0.18) + - season_midpoint_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.13) + +Cluster 6 +--------- +Cluster of 13 species, mainly representing moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to June, with a mean peak around May, and and an average width of 2.6 months. It is characterised by moderate season and sharp active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, central peak alignment, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, fit score is lower than the whole-set average and season end month is lower than the whole-set average. + +Species (13): + Chiffchaff + Garden Warbler + Lesser Celandine + Cowslip + Garlic Mustard + Common Vetch + Cow Parsley + Whitethroat + Orange Tip Butterfly + Reed Warbler + Yellow Flag Iris + Bluebell + Cuckoo + +Dominant model family : seasonal_presence +Dominant class : moderate_spring_seasonal_presence +Common traits : spring_peak (12, 92%), central_peak_alignment (11, 85%), strong_offseason_suppression (10, 77%), sharp_seasonal_window (8, 62%), moderate_season (8, 62%) + +Peak month mean/range : 4.68 (3.12 - 5.49) +Season width mean : 2.59 months + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.28) + - season_end_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.27) + - season_width_months (lower, scaled_difference=-0.23) + - season_midpoint_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.20) + - season_start_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.05) + +Cluster 7 +--------- +Single-species cluster containing Red Admiral Butterfly, mainly representing extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from March to December, with a mean peak around August, and and an average width of 8.8 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Its defining traits include summer peak, very broad season, and moderate seasonal window. Compared with the full species set, season width months is higher than the whole-set average and peak month is higher than the whole-set average. + +Species (1): + Red Admiral Butterfly + +Dominant model family : seasonal_presence +Dominant class : extended_summer_seasonal_presence +Common traits : summer_peak (1, 100%), very_broad_season (1, 100%), moderate_seasonal_window (1, 100%), moderate_post_peak_decline (1, 100%), moderate_offseason_suppression (1, 100%) + +Peak month mean/range : 7.62 (7.62 - 7.62) +Season width mean : 8.78 months + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - season_width_months (higher, scaled_difference=0.55) + - peak_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.34) + - season_end_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.34) + - season_start_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.24) + - fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.19) + +Cluster 8 +--------- +Cluster of 22 species, mainly representing extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to October, with a mean peak around June, and and an average width of 5.8 months. It is characterised by broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include strong offseason suppression, strong post peak decline, and early peak alignment. + +Species (22): + Swallow + Buttercup + Brimstone Butterfly + Red Dead Nettle + Green Alkanet + Peacock Butterfly + Common Comfrey + Oxeye Daisy + Doves Foot Cranesbill + Honeysuckle + Red Campion + Dog Rose + Teasel + Red Clover + White Campion + Cuckoo Pint + Speckled Wood Butterfly + Horsetail + Meadow Brown Butterfly + Common Poppy + Cornflower + Swift + +Dominant model family : seasonal_presence +Dominant class : extended_spring_seasonal_presence +Common traits : strong_offseason_suppression (19, 86%), strong_post_peak_decline (18, 82%), early_peak_alignment (17, 77%), moderate_seasonal_window (15, 68%), broad_season (12, 55%) + +Peak month mean/range : 5.82 (4.12 - 8.38) +Season width mean : 5.76 months + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.24) + - season_width_months (higher, scaled_difference=0.17) + - peak_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.14) + - season_end_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.13) + - season_midpoint_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.11) + +Cluster 9 +--------- +Single-species cluster containing Redwing, mainly representing winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The defining pattern is a winter peak around January, a moderate autumn component, moderate summer suppression, and slow arrival fast departure response dynamics. Its defining traits include year wrapping winter presence, core winter winter peak, and moderate autumn component. Compared with the full species set, decay to growth ratio is higher than the whole-set average and active month count ge 0 10 is higher than the whole-set average. + +Species (1): + Redwing + +Dominant model family : winter_presence +Dominant class : winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component +Common traits : year_wrapping_winter_presence (1, 100%), core_winter_winter_peak (1, 100%), moderate_autumn_component (1, 100%), moderate_summer_suppression (1, 100%), low_baseline_presence (1, 100%) + +Peak month mean/range : 1.00 (1.00 - 1.00) + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - decay_to_growth_ratio (higher, scaled_difference=0.60) + - active_month_count_ge_0_10 (higher, scaled_difference=0.50) + - trough_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.42) + - peak_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.39) + - autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio (higher, scaled_difference=0.37) + +Cluster 10 +---------- +Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing narrow winter seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from January to March, with a mean peak around February, and and an average width of 1.7 months. It is characterised by narrow season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include winter peak, narrow season, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, season end month is lower than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is lower than the whole-set average. + +Species (2): + Snowdrop + Winter Aconite + +Dominant model family : seasonal_presence +Dominant class : narrow_winter_seasonal_presence +Common traits : winter_peak (2, 100%), narrow_season (2, 100%), strong_offseason_suppression (2, 100%), central_peak_alignment (2, 100%), moderate_seasonal_window (1, 50%) + +Peak month mean/range : 2.40 (2.35 - 2.45) +Season width mean : 1.68 months + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - season_end_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.64) + - season_midpoint_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.64) + - season_start_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.54) + - season_width_months (lower, scaled_difference=-0.34) + - fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.32) diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/extracted_clusters.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/extracted_clusters.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..567dfec --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/extracted_clusters.json @@ -0,0 +1,178 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-ecological-calendar-clusters/v1", + "source_schema_version": "species-similarity-clusters/v2", + "source_created_utc": "2026-05-25T08:08:58.218316+00:00", + "n_species": 88, + "n_clusters": 10, + "cluster_caveat": "Clusters should be interpreted as exploratory seasonal assemblages rather than fixed ecological categories.", + "clusters": [ + { + "cluster_id": 1, + "calendar_label": "Snowberry neighbourhood", + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Snowberry, mainly representing winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The defining pattern is a winter peak around September, a moderate autumn component, moderate summer suppression, and balanced response dynamics. Its defining traits include year wrapping winter presence, atypical winter peak, and moderate autumn component. Compared with the full species set, autumn to winter weight ratio is higher than the whole-set average and trough month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Snowberry" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 2, + "calendar_label": "Jay neighbourhood", + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Jay, mainly representing resident with summer detectability collapse. Detectability peaks around October and and is lowest around August. The shared pattern includes weak baseline presence, moderate summer suppression, meaningful autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Its defining traits include resident detectability pattern, weak baseline presence, and autumn detectability peak. Compared with the full species set, fit score is higher than the whole-set average and target amplitude is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Jay" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 3, + "calendar_label": "Resident With Summer Detectability Collapse", + "description": "Cluster of 28 species, mainly representing resident with summer detectability collapse. Detectability peaks around April and and is lowest around September. The shared pattern includes weak baseline presence, moderate summer suppression, weak autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Common high-support traits include resident detectability pattern, moderate summer suppression, and weak autumn component.", + "n_species": 28, + "species": [ + "Collared Dove", + "House Sparrow", + "Chaffinch", + "Coal Tit", + "Germander Speedwell", + "Common Cleavers", + "Blackcap", + "Skylark", + "Mallard", + "Pied Wagtail", + "Shepherds Purse", + "Daisy", + "Nettle", + "Common Kestrel", + "Long Tailed Tit", + "Buzzard", + "Blackbird", + "Blue Tit", + "Dunnock", + "Canada Goose", + "Song Thrush", + "Greylag Goose", + "Great Tit", + "Pheasant", + "Greenfinch", + "Wren", + "Dandelion", + "Rook" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 4, + "calendar_label": "Resident With Spring Persistence And Summer Suppression", + "description": "Cluster of 15 species, mainly representing resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. Detectability peaks around February and and is lowest around August. The shared pattern includes strong baseline presence, strong summer suppression, weak autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Common high-support traits include resident detectability pattern, meaningful year end component, and weak autumn component. Compared with the full species set, fit score is higher than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 15, + "species": [ + "Cormorant", + "Mistle Thrush", + "Robin", + "Mute Swan", + "Herring Gull", + "Black Headed Gull", + "Coot", + "Grey Heron", + "Jackdaw", + "Red Kite", + "Goldfinch", + "Woodpigeon", + "Common Starling", + "Crow", + "Magpie" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 5, + "calendar_label": "Moderate Summer Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 4 species, mainly representing moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from June to September, with a mean peak around July, and and an average width of 3.0 months. It is characterised by moderate season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak, moderate season, and central peak alignment. Compared with the full species set, season start month is higher than the whole-set average and fit score is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 4, + "species": [ + "Rosebay Willowherb", + "White Clover", + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Goats Beard" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 6, + "calendar_label": "Moderate Spring Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 13 species, mainly representing moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to June, with a mean peak around May, and and an average width of 2.6 months. It is characterised by moderate season and sharp active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, central peak alignment, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, fit score is lower than the whole-set average and season end month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 13, + "species": [ + "Chiffchaff", + "Garden Warbler", + "Lesser Celandine", + "Cowslip", + "Garlic Mustard", + "Common Vetch", + "Cow Parsley", + "Whitethroat", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Reed Warbler", + "Yellow Flag Iris", + "Bluebell", + "Cuckoo" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 7, + "calendar_label": "Red Admiral Butterfly neighbourhood", + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Red Admiral Butterfly, mainly representing extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from March to December, with a mean peak around August, and and an average width of 8.8 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Its defining traits include summer peak, very broad season, and moderate seasonal window. Compared with the full species set, season width months is higher than the whole-set average and peak month is higher than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Red Admiral Butterfly" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 8, + "calendar_label": "Extended Spring Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 22 species, mainly representing extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to October, with a mean peak around June, and and an average width of 5.8 months. It is characterised by broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include strong offseason suppression, strong post peak decline, and early peak alignment.", + "n_species": 22, + "species": [ + "Swallow", + "Buttercup", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Green Alkanet", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Common Comfrey", + "Oxeye Daisy", + "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "Honeysuckle", + "Red Campion", + "Dog Rose", + "Teasel", + "Red Clover", + "White Campion", + "Cuckoo Pint", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "Horsetail", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower", + "Swift" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 9, + "calendar_label": "Redwing neighbourhood", + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Redwing, mainly representing winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The defining pattern is a winter peak around January, a moderate autumn component, moderate summer suppression, and slow arrival fast departure response dynamics. Its defining traits include year wrapping winter presence, core winter winter peak, and moderate autumn component. Compared with the full species set, decay to growth ratio is higher than the whole-set average and active month count ge 0 10 is higher than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Redwing" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 10, + "calendar_label": "Narrow Winter Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing narrow winter seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from January to March, with a mean peak around February, and and an average width of 1.7 months. It is characterised by narrow season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include winter peak, narrow season, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, season end month is lower than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Snowdrop", + "Winter Aconite" + ] + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/feature_matrix.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/feature_matrix.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7e4d1e8 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/feature_matrix.json @@ -0,0 +1,4368 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "species-feature-table/v1", + "created_utc": "2026-05-25T08:08:55.483796+00:00", + "description": "Whole-set seasonal ecology feature table compiled from per-species classification JSON files.", + "n_species": 88, + "source_files": [ + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_classification.json", + 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"/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swallow_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swift_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/teasel_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/yellow_flag_iris_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/redwing_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/snowberry_classification.json" + ], + "features": [ + { + "species": "Black Headed Gull", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.224, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.41979462891906966, + "target_amplitude": 0.6506072390252963, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.3630015032901893, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.05286343612334802, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.44493392070484583, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.350471293916024, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_classification.json", + "summary": "Black Headed Gull is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Blackbird", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.268, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 3, + "peak_label": "March", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.5591013398309653, + "target_amplitude": 0.8266946309032337, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.31946520527280137, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.08418367346938775, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.33163265306122447, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.849680170575693, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blackbird_classification.json", + "summary": "Blackbird is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Blackcap", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.41, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.2115108255843349, + "target_amplitude": 0.632486441862457, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.06087580296904315, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.04152249134948097, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.25259515570934254, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.9722518676627534, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blackcap_classification.json", + "summary": "Blackcap is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Blue Tit", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.258, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 3, + "peak_label": "March", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.4217387502672212, + "target_amplitude": 0.5854727476001274, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.40450915989234393, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.0477326968973747, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.477326968973747, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.723291626564004, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_classification.json", + "summary": "Blue Tit is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Buzzard", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.24, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 3, + "peak_label": "March", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.6013872841601938, + "target_amplitude": 0.6498656227579029, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.5011297544025949, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.06473214285714286, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.40625, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4757990867579909, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/buzzard_classification.json", + "summary": "Buzzard is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Canada Goose", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.365, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": 11, + "trough_label": "November", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.195070674578276, + "target_amplitude": 0.6199725038934809, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.05484114180302685, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.05928853754940711, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3932806324110672, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.856164383561644, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "late_autumn_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/canada_goose_classification.json", + "summary": "Canada Goose is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around November. The model indicates weak baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Chaffinch", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.237, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 6, + "peak_label": "June", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.30583473679231316, + "target_amplitude": 0.8187244086048439, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.05374213781531037, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.055865921787709494, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.39106145251396646, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.540796963946869, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_classification.json", + "summary": "Chaffinch is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around June and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates weak baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Coal Tit", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.537, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 7, + "trough_label": "July", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.16406511606117974, + "target_amplitude": 0.5953104080888479, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.0806302045920826, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.04780876494023904, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3426294820717131, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.870304114490161, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coal_tit_classification.json", + "summary": "Coal Tit is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around July. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Collared Dove", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.31, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 10, + "trough_label": "October", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.5247953698728599, + "target_amplitude": 0.7547852589099668, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.34191288616697213, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.064343163538874, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.5683646112600537, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 0.8744257274119449, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_classification.json", + "summary": "Collared Dove is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around October. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Common Cleavers", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.443, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.21404045898897828, + "target_amplitude": 0.6575175486696657, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.06803489734013847, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.043859649122807015, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.18771929824561404, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.2490450725744844, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_classification.json", + "summary": "Common Cleavers is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Common Kestrel", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.549, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": 11, + "trough_label": "November", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.3882718232372166, + "target_amplitude": 0.6005388381850569, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.3686350234535814, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.06880733944954129, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.6192660550458715, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.1338199513381995, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "late_autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_classification.json", + "summary": "Common Kestrel is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around November. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Common Starling", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.452, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.7756278512637006, + "target_amplitude": 0.7553959265734586, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.48899329091444604, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.06467661691542288, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.41044776119402987, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.225254394079556, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_classification.json", + "summary": "Common Starling is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Coot", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.234, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.272580850304194, + "target_amplitude": 0.6497519376515021, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.07695244462174697, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.06976744186046512, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.45930232558139533, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.321614063124251, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_classification.json", + "summary": "Coot is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Cormorant", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.154, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": 7, + "trough_label": "July", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.15966405215719734, + "target_amplitude": 0.4645468966315792, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.11624230059775015, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.082687338501292, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.42377260981912146, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4839527027027026, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/cormorant_classification.json", + "summary": "Cormorant is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around July. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Crow", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.477, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.7581203409781896, + "target_amplitude": 0.534852057969918, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.6450181059441938, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.1141732283464567, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.5984251968503937, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.360093896713615, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/crow_classification.json", + "summary": "Crow is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Daisy", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.249, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.34079283471359834, + "target_amplitude": 0.5609681031670967, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.26282033010438555, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.055776892430278883, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3107569721115538, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.5664136622390892, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/daisy_classification.json", + "summary": "Daisy is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Dandelion", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.367, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.17122105315475547, + "target_amplitude": 0.5343576847288469, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.08084497681169209, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.04436860068259386, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.25597269624573377, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.6020618556701032, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/dandelion_classification.json", + "summary": "Dandelion is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Dunnock", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.195, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 3, + "peak_label": "March", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.43861540264734467, + "target_amplitude": 0.6101099673412291, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.3728234258432724, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.046464646464646465, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.4121212121212121, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.343807763401109, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/dunnock_classification.json", + "summary": "Dunnock is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates strong baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Germander Speedwell", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.417, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.19006020014144828, + "target_amplitude": 0.5895043526086411, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.0709205172365685, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.04664179104477612, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.2798507462686567, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.6262178919397696, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_classification.json", + "summary": "Germander Speedwell is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Goldfinch", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.35, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.5558225761604985, + "target_amplitude": 0.7377696378752077, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.36777432055324877, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.10894941634241245, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.669260700389105, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 0.9342492639842983, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/goldfinch_classification.json", + "summary": "Goldfinch is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Great Tit", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.159, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.37448367728894455, + "target_amplitude": 0.6883531447825695, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.2712162837064409, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.060810810810810814, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3761261261261261, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.6836686944314458, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/great_tit_classification.json", + "summary": "Great Tit is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Greenfinch", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.389, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "minimal", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.20198254429648033, + "target_amplitude": 0.6462342810924729, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.0541599246960897, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.03756708407871199, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.2504472271914132, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 2.1115751789976134, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "minimal_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_classification.json", + "summary": "Greenfinch is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates weak baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Grey Heron", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.206, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.44250863140775165, + "target_amplitude": 0.6438349054309149, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.3944245654192382, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.07446808510638298, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3617021276595745, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.3318505338078293, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_classification.json", + "summary": "Grey Heron is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Greylag Goose", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.184, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.3781718655054268, + "target_amplitude": 0.693648113276107, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.2957007791504614, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.050966608084358524, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3409490333919156, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4959546925566343, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_classification.json", + "summary": "Greylag Goose is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Herring Gull", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.347, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.5130236659284254, + "target_amplitude": 0.5921682838531045, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.46416042849786016, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.0676056338028169, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.6816901408450704, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 0.7728026533996684, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_classification.json", + "summary": "Herring Gull is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates strong baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "House Sparrow", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.167, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 10, + "trough_label": "October", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.6149644338983231, + "target_amplitude": 0.8396931269417937, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.35763171629134666, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.05134474327628362, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3276283618581907, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.274323335771763, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_classification.json", + "summary": "House Sparrow is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around October. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Jackdaw", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.435, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.7203418580614599, + "target_amplitude": 0.7061241865815708, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.507571844890725, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.09491525423728814, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.535593220338983, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4302874302874302, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jackdaw_classification.json", + "summary": "Jackdaw is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Jay", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.581, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 10, + "peak_label": "October", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "autumn", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.10859575234282763, + "target_amplitude": 0.24747398820984062, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.14546983406383107, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.1308411214953271, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.7383177570093458, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.329608938547486, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "autumn_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "meaningful_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jay_classification.json", + "summary": "Jay is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around October and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Long Tailed Tit", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.319, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 3, + "peak_label": "March", + "trough_month": 5, + "trough_label": "May", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.15154760741292142, + "target_amplitude": 0.47068776872668894, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.09348022813303479, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.06313131313131314, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.4393939393939394, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.3518164435946463, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_classification.json", + "summary": "Long Tailed Tit is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around May. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Magpie", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.45, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.8662751790538733, + "target_amplitude": 0.7182949488612982, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.5453977731652019, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.06287425149700598, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.46407185628742514, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.3685051958433254, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/magpie_classification.json", + "summary": "Magpie is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Mallard", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.421, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.45620398110730787, + "target_amplitude": 0.5235586614434156, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.4739585836125837, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.048, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.4106666666666667, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 2.0201660735468563, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mallard_classification.json", + "summary": "Mallard is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Mistle Thrush", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.225, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.13845269500030552, + "target_amplitude": 0.42389052211390243, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.08964578828160052, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.08536585365853659, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.47560975609756095, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.0601503759398496, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_classification.json", + "summary": "Mistle Thrush is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Mute Swan", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.259, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.5774560907770357, + "target_amplitude": 0.49953038372288017, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.4937381914483355, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.13358778625954199, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.7557251908396947, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.1929046563192904, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "meaningful_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_classification.json", + "summary": "Mute Swan is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Nettle", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.317, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.49486562136948054, + "target_amplitude": 0.666191092292284, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.29609884286710064, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.05, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3730769230769231, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.6388174807197944, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_classification.json", + "summary": "Nettle is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Pheasant", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.194, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.4213717695284509, + "target_amplitude": 0.7630322641674512, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.27186132392856505, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.04332129963898917, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.33935018050541516, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.9923076923076923, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pheasant_classification.json", + "summary": "Pheasant is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Pied Wagtail", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.396, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.31229921259198684, + "target_amplitude": 0.561793912653357, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.32824313622649515, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.05603448275862069, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.39870689655172414, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.5668789808917198, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pied_wagtail_classification.json", + "summary": "Pied Wagtail is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Red Kite", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.481, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 3, + "peak_label": "March", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "autumn_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.7405183265563009, + "target_amplitude": 0.6011335470203422, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.5876422059605672, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.13592233009708737, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.9466019417475728, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.541724296911019, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "meaningful_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_classification.json", + "summary": "Red Kite is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Robin", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.288, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": 7, + "trough_label": "July", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.3613473640431974, + "target_amplitude": 0.500652881353124, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.4016014388706911, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.0621301775147929, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.636094674556213, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.3521066208082546, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/robin_classification.json", + "summary": "Robin is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around July. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Rook", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.295, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": 7, + "trough_label": "July", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.1652963016372777, + "target_amplitude": 0.6544130305529264, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.07946052045458842, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.050724637681159424, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.26811594202898553, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4050073637702503, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/rook_classification.json", + "summary": "Rook is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around July. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Shepherds Purse", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.316, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "minimal", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.342655888022306, + "target_amplitude": 0.5569413022187641, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.2831615682175547, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.038461538461538464, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.25274725274725274, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.7541345093715546, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "minimal_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_classification.json", + "summary": "Shepherds Purse is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Skylark", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.517, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.2406220517571283, + "target_amplitude": 0.6771691786162352, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.06747710955411745, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.052830188679245285, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.32452830188679244, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.6775032509752925, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_classification.json", + "summary": "Skylark is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Song Thrush", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.239, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 3, + "peak_label": "March", + "trough_month": 9, + "trough_label": "September", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.22259139258049532, + "target_amplitude": 0.7190289491373724, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.07371052314873378, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.049523809523809526, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3295238095238095, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 2.068205666316894, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_classification.json", + "summary": "Song Thrush is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Woodpigeon", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "confidence": "low", + "fit_score": 0.497, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": 10, + "trough_label": "October", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.8199376823763411, + "target_amplitude": 0.7523271555786653, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.5063744983550917, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.07631578947368421, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.48947368421052634, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.6109537299338998, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_classification.json", + "summary": "Woodpigeon is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around October. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Wren", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.208, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": 8, + "trough_label": "August", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "minimal", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "target_mean_value": 0.28277359644625405, + "target_amplitude": 0.8375385729882336, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.04895296923903706, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.025830258302583026, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.23616236162361623, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4504901960784313, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "minimal_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 11, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_classification.json", + "summary": "Wren is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates weak baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." + }, + { + "species": "Bluebell", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "narrow_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.039, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.875, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.08, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 5.55, + "season_end_label": "June", + "season_width_months": 1.47, + "season_midpoint_month": 4.815, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "narrow", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "narrow_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/bluebell_classification.json", + "summary": "Bluebell is classified as narrow spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to June, with a spring peak around May. The season is narrow, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Brimstone Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.053, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.145, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 2.29, + "season_start_label": "February", + "season_end_month": 9.12, + "season_end_label": "September", + "season_width_months": 6.83, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.705, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/brimstone_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Brimstone Butterfly is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about February to September, with a spring peak around April. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Buttercup", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.042, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.41, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 3.41, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_month": 10.31, + "season_end_label": "October", + "season_width_months": 6.9, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.86, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/buttercup_classification.json", + "summary": "Buttercup is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to October, with a spring peak around May. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Chiffchaff", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.024, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.255, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 3.03, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_month": 7.35, + "season_end_label": "July", + "season_width_months": 4.32, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.19, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_classification.json", + "summary": "Chiffchaff is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to July, with a spring peak around April. The season is broad, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Common Comfrey", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.035, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.245, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 3.355, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_month": 9.32, + "season_end_label": "September", + "season_width_months": 5.965, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.3375, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_classification.json", + "summary": "Common Comfrey is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to September, with a spring peak around May. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Common Poppy", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.046, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.91, + "peak_label": "June", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.815, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_month": 9.995, + "season_end_label": "October", + "season_width_months": 5.18, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.405, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_classification.json", + "summary": "Common Poppy is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to October, with a summer peak around June. The season is broad, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Common Vetch", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.036, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.19, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.545, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_month": 7.19, + "season_end_label": "July", + "season_width_months": 2.645, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.8675, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_classification.json", + "summary": "Common Vetch is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to July, with a spring peak around May. The season is moderate, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Cornflower", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.017, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 6.89, + "peak_label": "July", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 6.11, + "season_start_label": "June", + "season_end_month": 10.205, + "season_end_label": "October", + "season_width_months": 4.095, + "season_midpoint_month": 8.1575, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_classification.json", + "summary": "Cornflower is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about June to October, with a summer peak around July. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Cow Parsley", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.015, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.11, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.245, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 7.395, + "season_end_label": "July", + "season_width_months": 3.15, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.82, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cow_parsley_classification.json", + "summary": "Cow Parsley is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to July, with a spring peak around May. The season is moderate, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Cowslip", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.013, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.245, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 3.365, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_month": 5.43, + "season_end_label": "May", + "season_width_months": 2.065, + "season_midpoint_month": 4.3975, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cowslip_classification.json", + "summary": "Cowslip is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to May, with a spring peak around April. The season is moderate, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Cuckoo", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "narrow_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.007, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.49, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.365, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 6.195, + "season_end_label": "June", + "season_width_months": 1.83, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.28, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "narrow", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "narrow_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_classification.json", + "summary": "Cuckoo is classified as narrow spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to June, with a spring peak around May. The season is narrow, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Cuckoo Pint", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.068, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 7.855, + "peak_label": "August", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 3.925, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 9.245, + "season_end_label": "September", + "season_width_months": 5.32, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.585, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "late_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_classification.json", + "summary": "Cuckoo Pint is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to September, with a summer peak around August. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Dog Rose", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.085, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.855, + "peak_label": "June", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 5.12, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_month": 11.455, + "season_end_label": "November", + "season_width_months": 6.335, + "season_midpoint_month": 8.2875, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_classification.json", + "summary": "Dog Rose is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to November, with a summer peak around June. The season is very_broad, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.042, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.4, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.185, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 10.41, + "season_end_label": "October", + "season_width_months": 6.225, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.2975, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_classification.json", + "summary": "Doves Foot Cranesbill is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to October, with a spring peak around May. The season is very_broad, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Garden Warbler", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_early_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.065, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 3.12, + "peak_label": "March", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 2.035, + "season_start_label": "February", + "season_end_month": 6.495, + "season_end_label": "June", + "season_width_months": 4.46, + "season_midpoint_month": 4.265, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "early_spring", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "early_spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_classification.json", + "summary": "Garden Warbler is classified as extended early spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about February to June, with a early spring peak around March. The season is broad, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Garlic Mustard", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.02, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.07, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 3.965, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 6.315, + "season_end_label": "June", + "season_width_months": 2.35, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.14, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garlic_mustard_classification.json", + "summary": "Garlic Mustard is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to June, with a spring peak around May. The season is moderate, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.037, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 7.475, + "peak_label": "July", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 6.125, + "season_start_label": "June", + "season_end_month": 8.56, + "season_end_label": "September", + "season_width_months": 2.435, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.3425, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Gatekeeper Butterfly is classified as moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about June to September, with a summer peak around July. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Goats Beard", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.021, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 6.175, + "peak_label": "June", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 5.005, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_month": 8.31, + "season_end_label": "August", + "season_width_months": 3.305, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.6575, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_classification.json", + "summary": "Goats Beard is classified as moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to August, with a summer peak around June. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Green Alkanet", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.025, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.25, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 3.27, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_month": 8.29, + "season_end_label": "August", + "season_width_months": 5.02, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.78, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_classification.json", + "summary": "Green Alkanet is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to August, with a spring peak around May. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Honeysuckle", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.056, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.96, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.17, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 9.085, + "season_end_label": "September", + "season_width_months": 4.915, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.6275, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_classification.json", + "summary": "Honeysuckle is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to September, with a spring peak around May. The season is broad, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Horsetail", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.026, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 6.58, + "peak_label": "July", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.235, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 8.78, + "season_end_label": "September", + "season_width_months": 4.545, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.5075, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_classification.json", + "summary": "Horsetail is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to September, with a summer peak around July. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Lesser Celandine", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.006, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.36, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 2.28, + "season_start_label": "February", + "season_end_month": 5.25, + "season_end_label": "May", + "season_width_months": 2.97, + "season_midpoint_month": 3.765, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/lesser_celandine_classification.json", + "summary": "Lesser Celandine is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about February to May, with a spring peak around April. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.054, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 6.64, + "peak_label": "July", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.48, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 9.33, + "season_end_label": "September", + "season_width_months": 4.85, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.905, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/meadow_brown_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Meadow Brown Butterfly is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to September, with a summer peak around July. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.038, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.295, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 3.775, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 6.2, + "season_end_label": "June", + "season_width_months": 2.425, + "season_midpoint_month": 4.9875, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/orange_tip_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Orange Tip Butterfly is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to June, with a spring peak around April. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Oxeye Daisy", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.038, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.365, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.47, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 10.18, + "season_end_label": "October", + "season_width_months": 5.71, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.325, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_classification.json", + "summary": "Oxeye Daisy is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to October, with a spring peak around May. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Peacock Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.07, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.125, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 2.53, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_month": 8.25, + "season_end_label": "August", + "season_width_months": 5.72, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.39, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Peacock Butterfly is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to August, with a spring peak around April. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.076, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 7.62, + "peak_label": "August", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 2.855, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_month": 11.63, + "season_end_label": "December", + "season_width_months": 8.775, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.2425, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Red Admiral Butterfly is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to December, with a summer peak around August. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Red Campion", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.037, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.16, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.135, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 9.95, + "season_end_label": "October", + "season_width_months": 5.815, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.0425, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_classification.json", + "summary": "Red Campion is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to October, with a spring peak around May. The season is broad, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Red Clover", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.038, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 6.355, + "peak_label": "June", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.25, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 11.115, + "season_end_label": "November", + "season_width_months": 6.865, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.6825, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_classification.json", + "summary": "Red Clover is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to November, with a summer peak around June. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Red Dead Nettle", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.057, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.215, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 2.37, + "season_start_label": "February", + "season_end_month": 9.965, + "season_end_label": "October", + "season_width_months": 7.595, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.1675, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_classification.json", + "summary": "Red Dead Nettle is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about February to October, with a spring peak around April. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Reed Warbler", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.06, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.12, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 3.29, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_month": 6.115, + "season_end_label": "June", + "season_width_months": 2.825, + "season_midpoint_month": 4.7025, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_classification.json", + "summary": "Reed Warbler is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to June, with a spring peak around April. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Rosebay Willowherb", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.012, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 8.265, + "peak_label": "August", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 6.075, + "season_start_label": "June", + "season_end_month": 9.3, + "season_end_label": "September", + "season_width_months": 3.225, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.6875, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "moderate_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_classification.json", + "summary": "Rosebay Willowherb is classified as moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about June to September, with a summer peak around August. The season is moderate, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Snowdrop", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "narrow_winter_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.003, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2.45, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 1.385, + "season_start_label": "January", + "season_end_month": 3.31, + "season_end_label": "March", + "season_width_months": 1.925, + "season_midpoint_month": 2.3475, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": "narrow", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "winter_peak", + "narrow_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_classification.json", + "summary": "Snowdrop is classified as narrow winter seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about January to March, with a winter peak around February. The season is narrow, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.09, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 8.385, + "peak_label": "August", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 3.595, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 9.77, + "season_end_label": "October", + "season_width_months": 6.175, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.6825, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "late_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Speckled Wood Butterfly is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to October, with a summer peak around August. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Swallow", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.045, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.47, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.08, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 10.295, + "season_end_label": "October", + "season_width_months": 6.215, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.1875, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swallow_classification.json", + "summary": "Swallow is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to October, with a spring peak around May. The season is very_broad, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Swift", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.029, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 6.06, + "peak_label": "June", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 5.11, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_month": 9.305, + "season_end_label": "September", + "season_width_months": 4.195, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.2075, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swift_classification.json", + "summary": "Swift is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to September, with a summer peak around June. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Teasel", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.052, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 7.49, + "peak_label": "July", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 5.46, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_month": 11.475, + "season_end_label": "November", + "season_width_months": 6.015, + "season_midpoint_month": 8.4675, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/teasel_classification.json", + "summary": "Teasel is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to November, with a summer peak around July. The season is very_broad, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "White Campion", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.063, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 6.045, + "peak_label": "June", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.92, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_month": 11.245, + "season_end_label": "November", + "season_width_months": 6.325, + "season_midpoint_month": 8.0825, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_classification.json", + "summary": "White Campion is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to November, with a summer peak around June. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "White Clover", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.009, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 6.305, + "peak_label": "June", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 5.375, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_month": 8.3, + "season_end_label": "August", + "season_width_months": 2.925, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.8375, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_classification.json", + "summary": "White Clover is classified as moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to August, with a summer peak around June. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Whitethroat", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.028, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.19, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.395, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 6.77, + "season_end_label": "July", + "season_width_months": 2.375, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.5825, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_classification.json", + "summary": "Whitethroat is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to July, with a spring peak around May. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Winter Aconite", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "narrow_winter_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.004, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 2.355, + "peak_label": "February", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 1.505, + "season_start_label": "February", + "season_end_month": 2.945, + "season_end_label": "March", + "season_width_months": 1.44, + "season_midpoint_month": 2.225, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "winter", + "season_width_class": "narrow", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "winter_peak", + "narrow_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_classification.json", + "summary": "Winter Aconite is classified as narrow winter seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about February to March, with a winter peak around February. The season is narrow, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Yellow Flag Iris", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "narrow_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.018, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 5.45, + "peak_label": "May", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 5.115, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_month": 5.885, + "season_end_label": "June", + "season_width_months": 0.77, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.5, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "narrow", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "narrow_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/yellow_flag_iris_classification.json", + "summary": "Yellow Flag Iris is classified as narrow spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to June, with a spring peak around May. The season is narrow, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Redwing", + "model_family": "winter_presence", + "schema_version": "winter-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.128, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 1, + "peak_label": "January", + "trough_month": 5, + "trough_label": "May", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "low", + "timing": "core_winter", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "moderate", + "response_dynamics": "slow_arrival_fast_departure", + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.23686723973256923, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 2.658008658008658, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": 7, + "traits": [ + "year_wrapping_winter_presence", + "core_winter_winter_peak", + "moderate_autumn_component", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "low_baseline_presence", + "moderate_winter_bump", + "slow_arrival_fast_departure_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 7, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/redwing_classification.json", + "summary": "Redwing is classified as winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The fitted winter component peaks around February, with a moderate autumn component centred around December. The model has low baseline presence and moderate summer suppression centred around June. The fitted response dynamics suggest slow arrival fast departure." + }, + { + "species": "Snowberry", + "model_family": "winter_presence", + "schema_version": "winter-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.145, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 9, + "peak_label": "September", + "trough_month": 3, + "trough_label": "March", + "season_start_month": null, + "season_start_label": null, + "season_end_month": null, + "season_end_label": null, + "season_width_months": null, + "season_midpoint_month": null, + "baseline_presence": "low", + "timing": "atypical", + "season_width_class": null, + "window_shape": null, + "post_peak_decline": null, + "offseason_suppression": null, + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "moderate", + "response_dynamics": "balanced", + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.452991452991453, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4097560975609755, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": 6, + "traits": [ + "year_wrapping_winter_presence", + "atypical_winter_peak", + "moderate_autumn_component", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "low_baseline_presence", + "moderate_winter_bump", + "balanced_response_dynamics" + ], + "trait_count": 7, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/snowberry_classification.json", + "summary": "Snowberry is classified as winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The fitted winter component peaks around September, with a moderate autumn component centred around October. The model has low baseline presence and moderate summer suppression centred around July. The fitted response dynamics suggest balanced." + } + ] +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/species_similarity.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/species_similarity.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..812a9da --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/species_similarity.json @@ -0,0 +1,90610 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "species-similarity/v1", + "created_utc": "2026-05-25T08:08:55.533132+00:00", + "source_feature_schema_version": "species-feature-table/v1", + "source_feature_created_utc": "2026-05-25T08:08:55.483796+00:00", + "n_species": 88, + "top_n": 5, + "method": { + "description": "Weighted mixed-feature similarity using circular month distance, min-max scaled numeric distance, categorical exact-match distance, and Jaccard trait distance.", + "distance_range": "0 means identical on compared features; 1 means maximally different", + "similarity_range": "1 means most similar; 0 means least similar", + "component_weights": { + "circular_month": 0.4, + "numeric": 0.25, + "categorical": 0.2, + "traits": 0.15 + }, + "circular_month_features": { + "peak_month": 2.0, + "trough_month": 1.25, + "season_start_month": 1.25, + "season_end_month": 1.25, + "season_midpoint_month": 1.5 + }, + "numeric_features": { + "season_width_months": 1.5, + "target_mean_value": 1.0, + "target_amplitude": 1.0, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 1.0, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.75, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.75, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 0.75, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": 1.0, + "fit_score": 0.25 + }, + "categorical_features": { + "model_family": 1.0, + "primary_class": 1.0, + "confidence": 0.25, + "baseline_presence": 0.75, + "timing": 1.0, + "season_width_class": 0.75, + "window_shape": 0.75, + "post_peak_decline": 0.75, + "offseason_suppression": 0.75, + "summer_suppression": 0.75, + "autumn_component": 0.75, + "response_dynamics": 0.75 + }, + "missing_value_policy": "Missing feature values are skipped for that pair/component. Component weights are renormalised over available components." + }, + "species": [ + { + "species": "Black Headed Gull", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Blackbird", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Blackcap", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Blue Tit", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Buzzard", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Canada Goose", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Chaffinch", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Coal Tit", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Collared Dove", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Common Cleavers", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Common Kestrel", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Common Starling", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression" + }, + { + "species": "Coot", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Cormorant", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Crow", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression" + }, + { + "species": "Daisy", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Dandelion", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Dunnock", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Germander Speedwell", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Goldfinch", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression" + }, + { + "species": "Great Tit", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Greenfinch", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Grey Heron", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression" + }, + { + "species": "Greylag Goose", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Herring Gull", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "House Sparrow", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Jackdaw", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression" + }, + { + "species": "Jay", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Long Tailed Tit", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Magpie", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression" + }, + { + "species": "Mallard", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Mistle Thrush", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Mute Swan", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Nettle", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Pheasant", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Pied Wagtail", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Red Kite", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression" + }, + { + "species": "Robin", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Rook", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Shepherds Purse", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Skylark", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Song Thrush", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Woodpigeon", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression" + }, + { + "species": "Wren", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse" + }, + { + "species": "Bluebell", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "narrow_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Brimstone Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Buttercup", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Chiffchaff", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Common Comfrey", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Common Poppy", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Common Vetch", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Cornflower", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Cow Parsley", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Cowslip", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Cuckoo", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "narrow_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Cuckoo Pint", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Dog Rose", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Garden Warbler", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_early_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Garlic Mustard", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Goats Beard", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Green Alkanet", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Honeysuckle", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Horsetail", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Lesser Celandine", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Oxeye Daisy", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Peacock Butterfly", + "model_family": 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0.694245, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.741667, + "numeric": 0.190311, + "categorical": 1.0, + "traits": 1.0 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 1, + "numeric": 1, + "categorical": 4, + "traits": 0 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Yellow Flag Iris", + "species_b": "Snowberry", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "winter_presence", + "primary_class_a": "narrow_spring_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "similarity": 0.358403, + "distance": 0.641597, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.591667, + "numeric": 0.219723, + "categorical": 1.0, + "traits": 1.0 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 1, + "numeric": 1, + "categorical": 4, + "traits": 0 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Redwing", + "species_b": "Snowberry", + "model_family_a": "winter_presence", + "model_family_b": "winter_presence", + "primary_class_a": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "primary_class_b": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "similarity": 0.490729, + "distance": 0.509271, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.538462, + "numeric": 0.684879, + "categorical": 0.28, + "traits": 0.444444 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 2, + "numeric": 4, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 5 + } + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/species_similarity.txt b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/species_similarity.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..519c816 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/species_similarity.txt @@ -0,0 +1,704 @@ + +Black Headed Gull +----------------- + 1. Coot similarity=0.896 distance=0.104 + 2. Herring Gull similarity=0.854 distance=0.146 + 3. Cormorant similarity=0.815 distance=0.185 + 4. Greylag Goose similarity=0.813 distance=0.187 + 5. Robin similarity=0.808 distance=0.192 + +Blackbird +--------- + 1. Dunnock similarity=0.922 distance=0.078 + 2. Blue Tit similarity=0.883 distance=0.117 + 3. Buzzard similarity=0.844 distance=0.156 + 4. Song Thrush similarity=0.841 distance=0.159 + 5. Greylag Goose similarity=0.789 distance=0.211 + +Blackcap +-------- + 1. Skylark similarity=0.937 distance=0.063 + 2. Common Cleavers similarity=0.934 distance=0.066 + 3. Germander Speedwell similarity=0.898 distance=0.102 + 4. Daisy similarity=0.861 distance=0.139 + 5. Coal Tit similarity=0.839 distance=0.161 + +Blue Tit +-------- + 1. Dunnock similarity=0.925 distance=0.075 + 2. Buzzard similarity=0.919 distance=0.081 + 3. Blackbird similarity=0.883 distance=0.117 + 4. Great Tit similarity=0.834 distance=0.166 + 5. Mallard similarity=0.829 distance=0.171 + +Buzzard +------- + 1. Blue Tit similarity=0.919 distance=0.081 + 2. Dunnock similarity=0.869 distance=0.131 + 3. Blackbird similarity=0.844 distance=0.156 + 4. Grey Heron similarity=0.833 distance=0.167 + 5. Red Kite similarity=0.817 distance=0.183 + +Canada Goose +------------ + 1. Song Thrush similarity=0.854 distance=0.146 + 2. Greenfinch similarity=0.819 distance=0.181 + 3. Common Kestrel similarity=0.807 distance=0.193 + 4. Dandelion similarity=0.807 distance=0.193 + 5. Pheasant similarity=0.794 distance=0.206 + +Chaffinch +--------- + 1. Skylark similarity=0.852 distance=0.148 + 2. Coal Tit similarity=0.837 distance=0.163 + 3. Pied Wagtail similarity=0.836 distance=0.164 + 4. Common Cleavers similarity=0.823 distance=0.177 + 5. Blackcap similarity=0.806 distance=0.194 + +Coal Tit +-------- + 1. Skylark similarity=0.867 distance=0.133 + 2. Pied Wagtail similarity=0.862 distance=0.138 + 3. Common Cleavers similarity=0.855 distance=0.145 + 4. Blackcap similarity=0.839 distance=0.161 + 5. Chaffinch similarity=0.837 distance=0.163 + +Collared Dove +------------- + 1. House Sparrow similarity=0.932 distance=0.068 + 2. Nettle similarity=0.810 distance=0.190 + 3. Germander Speedwell similarity=0.795 distance=0.205 + 4. Daisy similarity=0.788 distance=0.212 + 5. Mallard similarity=0.773 distance=0.227 + +Common Cleavers +--------------- + 1. Skylark similarity=0.935 distance=0.065 + 2. Blackcap similarity=0.934 distance=0.066 + 3. Germander Speedwell similarity=0.893 distance=0.107 + 4. Daisy similarity=0.858 distance=0.142 + 5. Coal Tit similarity=0.855 distance=0.145 + +Common Kestrel +-------------- + 1. Greylag Goose similarity=0.835 distance=0.165 + 2. Canada Goose similarity=0.807 distance=0.193 + 3. Great Tit similarity=0.753 distance=0.247 + 4. Pheasant similarity=0.752 distance=0.248 + 5. Dunnock similarity=0.746 distance=0.254 + +Common Starling +--------------- + 1. Magpie similarity=0.878 distance=0.122 + 2. Crow similarity=0.867 distance=0.133 + 3. Woodpigeon similarity=0.828 distance=0.172 + 4. Goldfinch similarity=0.816 distance=0.184 + 5. Mute Swan similarity=0.809 distance=0.191 + +Coot +---- + 1. Black Headed Gull similarity=0.896 distance=0.104 + 2. Cormorant similarity=0.863 distance=0.137 + 3. Herring Gull similarity=0.825 distance=0.175 + 4. Mistle Thrush similarity=0.799 distance=0.201 + 5. Song Thrush similarity=0.780 distance=0.220 + +Cormorant +--------- + 1. Coot similarity=0.863 distance=0.137 + 2. Mistle Thrush similarity=0.836 distance=0.164 + 3. Black Headed Gull similarity=0.815 distance=0.185 + 4. Robin similarity=0.803 distance=0.197 + 5. Rook similarity=0.782 distance=0.218 + +Crow +---- + 1. Magpie similarity=0.936 distance=0.064 + 2. Common Starling similarity=0.867 distance=0.133 + 3. Woodpigeon similarity=0.841 distance=0.159 + 4. Goldfinch similarity=0.839 distance=0.161 + 5. Red Kite similarity=0.807 distance=0.193 + +Daisy +----- + 1. Nettle similarity=0.910 distance=0.090 + 2. Pied Wagtail similarity=0.907 distance=0.093 + 3. Shepherds Purse similarity=0.885 distance=0.115 + 4. Skylark similarity=0.866 distance=0.134 + 5. Blackcap similarity=0.861 distance=0.139 + +Dandelion +--------- + 1. Rook similarity=0.880 distance=0.120 + 2. Greenfinch similarity=0.873 distance=0.127 + 3. Wren similarity=0.863 distance=0.137 + 4. Great Tit similarity=0.837 distance=0.163 + 5. Blue Tit similarity=0.823 distance=0.177 + +Dunnock +------- + 1. Blue Tit similarity=0.925 distance=0.075 + 2. Blackbird similarity=0.922 distance=0.078 + 3. Buzzard similarity=0.869 distance=0.131 + 4. Song Thrush similarity=0.826 distance=0.174 + 5. Greylag Goose similarity=0.824 distance=0.176 + +Germander Speedwell +------------------- + 1. Blackcap similarity=0.898 distance=0.102 + 2. Common Cleavers similarity=0.893 distance=0.107 + 3. Skylark similarity=0.867 distance=0.133 + 4. Coal Tit similarity=0.832 distance=0.168 + 5. Daisy similarity=0.832 distance=0.168 + +Goldfinch +--------- + 1. Woodpigeon similarity=0.913 distance=0.087 + 2. Magpie similarity=0.864 distance=0.136 + 3. Crow similarity=0.839 distance=0.161 + 4. Common Starling similarity=0.816 distance=0.184 + 5. Herring Gull similarity=0.812 distance=0.188 + +Great Tit +--------- + 1. Pheasant similarity=0.957 distance=0.043 + 2. Greylag Goose similarity=0.877 distance=0.123 + 3. Dandelion similarity=0.837 distance=0.163 + 4. Blue Tit similarity=0.834 distance=0.166 + 5. Wren similarity=0.816 distance=0.184 + +Greenfinch +---------- + 1. Wren similarity=0.909 distance=0.091 + 2. Dandelion similarity=0.873 distance=0.127 + 3. Pheasant similarity=0.831 distance=0.169 + 4. Song Thrush similarity=0.820 distance=0.180 + 5. Canada Goose similarity=0.819 distance=0.181 + +Grey Heron +---------- + 1. Buzzard similarity=0.833 distance=0.167 + 2. Common Starling similarity=0.807 distance=0.193 + 3. Blue Tit similarity=0.793 distance=0.207 + 4. Jackdaw similarity=0.785 distance=0.215 + 5. Great Tit similarity=0.782 distance=0.218 + +Greylag Goose +------------- + 1. Great Tit similarity=0.877 distance=0.123 + 2. Pheasant similarity=0.851 distance=0.149 + 3. Common Kestrel similarity=0.835 distance=0.165 + 4. Dunnock similarity=0.824 distance=0.176 + 5. Rook similarity=0.813 distance=0.187 + +Herring Gull +------------ + 1. Black Headed Gull similarity=0.854 distance=0.146 + 2. Mute Swan similarity=0.839 distance=0.161 + 3. Coot similarity=0.825 distance=0.175 + 4. Goldfinch similarity=0.812 distance=0.188 + 5. Common Starling similarity=0.778 distance=0.222 + +House Sparrow +------------- + 1. Collared Dove similarity=0.932 distance=0.068 + 2. Daisy similarity=0.801 distance=0.199 + 3. Nettle similarity=0.788 distance=0.212 + 4. Mallard similarity=0.787 distance=0.213 + 5. Germander Speedwell similarity=0.782 distance=0.218 + +Jackdaw +------- + 1. Mallard similarity=0.845 distance=0.155 + 2. Grey Heron similarity=0.785 distance=0.215 + 3. Pied Wagtail similarity=0.778 distance=0.222 + 4. Buzzard similarity=0.775 distance=0.225 + 5. Magpie similarity=0.761 distance=0.239 + +Jay +--- + 1. Mistle Thrush similarity=0.637 distance=0.363 + 2. Chaffinch similarity=0.613 distance=0.387 + 3. Cormorant similarity=0.591 distance=0.409 + 4. Coal Tit similarity=0.579 distance=0.421 + 5. Pied Wagtail similarity=0.571 distance=0.429 + +Long Tailed Tit +--------------- + 1. Song Thrush similarity=0.788 distance=0.212 + 2. Dandelion similarity=0.788 distance=0.212 + 3. Blue Tit similarity=0.775 distance=0.225 + 4. Rook similarity=0.764 distance=0.236 + 5. Cormorant similarity=0.753 distance=0.247 + +Magpie +------ + 1. Crow similarity=0.936 distance=0.064 + 2. Woodpigeon similarity=0.887 distance=0.113 + 3. Common Starling similarity=0.878 distance=0.122 + 4. Goldfinch similarity=0.864 distance=0.136 + 5. Buzzard similarity=0.774 distance=0.226 + +Mallard +------- + 1. Pied Wagtail similarity=0.897 distance=0.103 + 2. Daisy similarity=0.854 distance=0.146 + 3. Jackdaw similarity=0.845 distance=0.155 + 4. Blue Tit similarity=0.829 distance=0.171 + 5. Coal Tit similarity=0.825 distance=0.175 + +Mistle Thrush +------------- + 1. Robin similarity=0.846 distance=0.154 + 2. Cormorant similarity=0.836 distance=0.164 + 3. Coot similarity=0.799 distance=0.201 + 4. Goldfinch similarity=0.768 distance=0.232 + 5. Crow similarity=0.765 distance=0.235 + +Mute Swan +--------- + 1. Herring Gull similarity=0.839 distance=0.161 + 2. Common Starling similarity=0.809 distance=0.191 + 3. Black Headed Gull similarity=0.791 distance=0.209 + 4. Cormorant similarity=0.771 distance=0.229 + 5. Coot similarity=0.764 distance=0.236 + +Nettle +------ + 1. Daisy similarity=0.910 distance=0.090 + 2. Shepherds Purse similarity=0.885 distance=0.115 + 3. Skylark similarity=0.881 distance=0.119 + 4. Pied Wagtail similarity=0.876 distance=0.124 + 5. Blackcap similarity=0.837 distance=0.163 + +Pheasant +-------- + 1. Great Tit similarity=0.957 distance=0.043 + 2. Greylag Goose similarity=0.851 distance=0.149 + 3. Greenfinch similarity=0.831 distance=0.169 + 4. Nettle similarity=0.823 distance=0.177 + 5. Song Thrush similarity=0.822 distance=0.178 + +Pied Wagtail +------------ + 1. Daisy similarity=0.907 distance=0.093 + 2. Mallard similarity=0.897 distance=0.103 + 3. Nettle similarity=0.876 distance=0.124 + 4. Coal Tit similarity=0.862 distance=0.138 + 5. Skylark similarity=0.845 distance=0.155 + +Red Kite +-------- + 1. Buzzard similarity=0.817 distance=0.183 + 2. Crow similarity=0.807 distance=0.193 + 3. Magpie similarity=0.772 distance=0.228 + 4. Grey Heron similarity=0.762 distance=0.238 + 5. Blue Tit similarity=0.762 distance=0.238 + +Robin +----- + 1. Mistle Thrush similarity=0.846 distance=0.154 + 2. Black Headed Gull similarity=0.808 distance=0.192 + 3. Cormorant similarity=0.803 distance=0.197 + 4. Buzzard similarity=0.784 distance=0.216 + 5. Crow similarity=0.776 distance=0.224 + +Rook +---- + 1. Dandelion similarity=0.880 distance=0.120 + 2. Wren similarity=0.833 distance=0.167 + 3. Greenfinch similarity=0.817 distance=0.183 + 4. Greylag Goose similarity=0.813 distance=0.187 + 5. Germander Speedwell similarity=0.807 distance=0.193 + +Shepherds Purse +--------------- + 1. Daisy similarity=0.885 distance=0.115 + 2. Nettle similarity=0.885 distance=0.115 + 3. Pied Wagtail similarity=0.844 distance=0.156 + 4. Common Cleavers similarity=0.833 distance=0.167 + 5. Blackcap similarity=0.814 distance=0.186 + +Skylark +------- + 1. Blackcap similarity=0.937 distance=0.063 + 2. Common Cleavers similarity=0.935 distance=0.065 + 3. Nettle similarity=0.881 distance=0.119 + 4. Coal Tit similarity=0.867 distance=0.133 + 5. Germander Speedwell similarity=0.867 distance=0.133 + +Song Thrush +----------- + 1. Canada Goose similarity=0.854 distance=0.146 + 2. Blackbird similarity=0.841 distance=0.159 + 3. Dunnock similarity=0.826 distance=0.174 + 4. Pheasant similarity=0.822 distance=0.178 + 5. Greenfinch similarity=0.820 distance=0.180 + +Woodpigeon +---------- + 1. Goldfinch similarity=0.913 distance=0.087 + 2. Magpie similarity=0.887 distance=0.113 + 3. Crow similarity=0.841 distance=0.159 + 4. Common Starling similarity=0.828 distance=0.172 + 5. Herring Gull similarity=0.745 distance=0.255 + +Wren +---- + 1. Greenfinch similarity=0.909 distance=0.091 + 2. Dandelion similarity=0.863 distance=0.137 + 3. Rook similarity=0.833 distance=0.167 + 4. Great Tit similarity=0.816 distance=0.184 + 5. Pheasant similarity=0.803 distance=0.197 + +Bluebell +-------- + 1. Cuckoo similarity=0.887 distance=0.113 + 2. Yellow Flag Iris similarity=0.814 distance=0.186 + 3. Garlic Mustard similarity=0.798 distance=0.202 + 4. Cowslip similarity=0.795 distance=0.205 + 5. Whitethroat similarity=0.730 distance=0.270 + +Brimstone Butterfly +------------------- + 1. Red Dead Nettle similarity=0.957 distance=0.043 + 2. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.881 distance=0.119 + 3. Common Comfrey similarity=0.856 distance=0.144 + 4. Buttercup similarity=0.851 distance=0.149 + 5. Doves Foot Cranesbill similarity=0.818 distance=0.182 + +Buttercup +--------- + 1. Red Dead Nettle similarity=0.856 distance=0.144 + 2. Brimstone Butterfly similarity=0.851 distance=0.149 + 3. Swallow similarity=0.842 distance=0.158 + 4. Doves Foot Cranesbill similarity=0.839 distance=0.161 + 5. Common Comfrey similarity=0.825 distance=0.175 + +Chiffchaff +---------- + 1. Honeysuckle similarity=0.836 distance=0.164 + 2. Garden Warbler similarity=0.821 distance=0.179 + 3. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.811 distance=0.189 + 4. Red Campion similarity=0.790 distance=0.210 + 5. Green Alkanet similarity=0.785 distance=0.215 + +Common Comfrey +-------------- + 1. Oxeye Daisy similarity=0.946 distance=0.054 + 2. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.924 distance=0.076 + 3. Green Alkanet similarity=0.906 distance=0.094 + 4. Red Campion similarity=0.896 distance=0.104 + 5. Honeysuckle similarity=0.878 distance=0.122 + +Common Poppy +------------ + 1. Swift similarity=0.885 distance=0.115 + 2. Dog Rose similarity=0.851 distance=0.149 + 3. Cornflower similarity=0.847 distance=0.153 + 4. Red Campion similarity=0.843 distance=0.157 + 5. Honeysuckle similarity=0.830 distance=0.170 + +Common Vetch +------------ + 1. Cow Parsley similarity=0.976 distance=0.024 + 2. Garlic Mustard similarity=0.889 distance=0.111 + 3. Orange Tip Butterfly similarity=0.868 distance=0.132 + 4. Whitethroat similarity=0.857 distance=0.143 + 5. Reed Warbler similarity=0.851 distance=0.149 + +Cornflower +---------- + 1. Swift similarity=0.936 distance=0.064 + 2. Common Poppy similarity=0.847 distance=0.153 + 3. Cuckoo Pint similarity=0.830 distance=0.170 + 4. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.817 distance=0.183 + 5. Red Clover similarity=0.799 distance=0.201 + +Cow Parsley +----------- + 1. Common Vetch similarity=0.976 distance=0.024 + 2. Garlic Mustard similarity=0.880 distance=0.120 + 3. Orange Tip Butterfly similarity=0.857 distance=0.143 + 4. Reed Warbler similarity=0.850 distance=0.150 + 5. Whitethroat similarity=0.839 distance=0.161 + +Cowslip +------- + 1. Garlic Mustard similarity=0.941 distance=0.059 + 2. Lesser Celandine similarity=0.878 distance=0.122 + 3. Orange Tip Butterfly similarity=0.838 distance=0.162 + 4. Reed Warbler similarity=0.835 distance=0.165 + 5. Common Vetch similarity=0.830 distance=0.170 + +Cuckoo +------ + 1. Bluebell similarity=0.887 distance=0.113 + 2. Garlic Mustard similarity=0.868 distance=0.132 + 3. Cowslip similarity=0.828 distance=0.172 + 4. Common Vetch similarity=0.789 distance=0.211 + 5. Yellow Flag Iris similarity=0.780 distance=0.220 + +Cuckoo Pint +----------- + 1. Speckled Wood Butterfly similarity=0.876 distance=0.124 + 2. Swift similarity=0.857 distance=0.143 + 3. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.846 distance=0.154 + 4. Cornflower similarity=0.830 distance=0.170 + 5. Common Poppy similarity=0.816 distance=0.184 + +Dog Rose +-------- + 1. Teasel similarity=0.937 distance=0.063 + 2. Red Clover similarity=0.870 distance=0.130 + 3. White Campion similarity=0.854 distance=0.146 + 4. Common Poppy similarity=0.851 distance=0.149 + 5. Doves Foot Cranesbill similarity=0.825 distance=0.175 + +Doves Foot Cranesbill +--------------------- + 1. Red Campion similarity=0.905 distance=0.095 + 2. Swallow similarity=0.870 distance=0.130 + 3. Honeysuckle similarity=0.858 distance=0.142 + 4. Oxeye Daisy similarity=0.855 distance=0.145 + 5. Buttercup similarity=0.839 distance=0.161 + +Garden Warbler +-------------- + 1. Chiffchaff similarity=0.821 distance=0.179 + 2. Cowslip similarity=0.684 distance=0.316 + 3. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.682 distance=0.318 + 4. Honeysuckle similarity=0.678 distance=0.322 + 5. Lesser Celandine similarity=0.668 distance=0.332 + +Garlic Mustard +-------------- + 1. Cowslip similarity=0.941 distance=0.059 + 2. Common Vetch similarity=0.889 distance=0.111 + 3. Cow Parsley similarity=0.880 distance=0.120 + 4. Cuckoo similarity=0.868 distance=0.132 + 5. Orange Tip Butterfly similarity=0.850 distance=0.150 + +Gatekeeper Butterfly +-------------------- + 1. Goats Beard similarity=0.916 distance=0.084 + 2. Rosebay Willowherb similarity=0.820 distance=0.180 + 3. White Clover similarity=0.814 distance=0.186 + 4. Cornflower similarity=0.774 distance=0.226 + 5. Swift similarity=0.763 distance=0.237 + +Goats Beard +----------- + 1. Gatekeeper Butterfly similarity=0.916 distance=0.084 + 2. White Clover similarity=0.855 distance=0.145 + 3. Swift similarity=0.818 distance=0.182 + 4. Rosebay Willowherb similarity=0.782 distance=0.218 + 5. Cow Parsley similarity=0.772 distance=0.228 + +Green Alkanet +------------- + 1. Common Comfrey similarity=0.906 distance=0.094 + 2. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.893 distance=0.107 + 3. Oxeye Daisy similarity=0.867 distance=0.133 + 4. Honeysuckle similarity=0.852 distance=0.148 + 5. Red Campion similarity=0.821 distance=0.179 + +Honeysuckle +----------- + 1. Red Campion similarity=0.951 distance=0.049 + 2. Common Comfrey similarity=0.878 distance=0.122 + 3. Oxeye Daisy similarity=0.871 distance=0.129 + 4. Doves Foot Cranesbill similarity=0.858 distance=0.142 + 5. Green Alkanet similarity=0.852 distance=0.148 + +Horsetail +--------- + 1. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.904 distance=0.096 + 2. White Clover similarity=0.823 distance=0.177 + 3. Swift similarity=0.800 distance=0.200 + 4. Cuckoo Pint similarity=0.788 distance=0.212 + 5. Cornflower similarity=0.759 distance=0.241 + +Lesser Celandine +---------------- + 1. Reed Warbler similarity=0.879 distance=0.121 + 2. Cowslip similarity=0.878 distance=0.122 + 3. Orange Tip Butterfly similarity=0.861 distance=0.139 + 4. Garlic Mustard similarity=0.839 distance=0.161 + 5. Cow Parsley similarity=0.764 distance=0.236 + +Meadow Brown Butterfly +---------------------- + 1. Horsetail similarity=0.904 distance=0.096 + 2. Swift similarity=0.855 distance=0.145 + 3. Cuckoo Pint similarity=0.846 distance=0.154 + 4. Cornflower similarity=0.817 distance=0.183 + 5. Common Poppy similarity=0.804 distance=0.196 + +Orange Tip Butterfly +-------------------- + 1. Reed Warbler similarity=0.971 distance=0.029 + 2. Whitethroat similarity=0.885 distance=0.115 + 3. Common Vetch similarity=0.868 distance=0.132 + 4. Lesser Celandine similarity=0.861 distance=0.139 + 5. Cow Parsley similarity=0.857 distance=0.143 + +Oxeye Daisy +----------- + 1. Common Comfrey similarity=0.946 distance=0.054 + 2. Red Campion similarity=0.913 distance=0.087 + 3. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.884 distance=0.116 + 4. Honeysuckle similarity=0.871 distance=0.129 + 5. Green Alkanet similarity=0.867 distance=0.133 + +Peacock Butterfly +----------------- + 1. Common Comfrey similarity=0.924 distance=0.076 + 2. Green Alkanet similarity=0.893 distance=0.107 + 3. Oxeye Daisy similarity=0.884 distance=0.116 + 4. Brimstone Butterfly similarity=0.881 distance=0.119 + 5. Red Dead Nettle similarity=0.841 distance=0.159 + +Red Admiral Butterfly +--------------------- + 1. White Campion similarity=0.744 distance=0.256 + 2. Red Clover similarity=0.729 distance=0.271 + 3. Speckled Wood Butterfly similarity=0.719 distance=0.281 + 4. Horsetail similarity=0.715 distance=0.285 + 5. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.681 distance=0.319 + +Red Campion +----------- + 1. Honeysuckle similarity=0.951 distance=0.049 + 2. Oxeye Daisy similarity=0.913 distance=0.087 + 3. Doves Foot Cranesbill similarity=0.905 distance=0.095 + 4. Common Comfrey similarity=0.896 distance=0.104 + 5. Common Poppy similarity=0.843 distance=0.157 + +Red Clover +---------- + 1. White Campion similarity=0.892 distance=0.108 + 2. Dog Rose similarity=0.870 distance=0.130 + 3. Teasel similarity=0.849 distance=0.151 + 4. Speckled Wood Butterfly similarity=0.838 distance=0.162 + 5. Swift similarity=0.810 distance=0.190 + +Red Dead Nettle +--------------- + 1. Brimstone Butterfly similarity=0.957 distance=0.043 + 2. Buttercup similarity=0.856 distance=0.144 + 3. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.841 distance=0.159 + 4. Common Comfrey similarity=0.840 distance=0.160 + 5. Doves Foot Cranesbill similarity=0.819 distance=0.181 + +Reed Warbler +------------ + 1. Orange Tip Butterfly similarity=0.971 distance=0.029 + 2. Lesser Celandine similarity=0.879 distance=0.121 + 3. Whitethroat similarity=0.856 distance=0.144 + 4. Common Vetch similarity=0.851 distance=0.149 + 5. Cow Parsley similarity=0.850 distance=0.150 + +Rosebay Willowherb +------------------ + 1. Gatekeeper Butterfly similarity=0.820 distance=0.180 + 2. White Clover similarity=0.787 distance=0.213 + 3. Goats Beard similarity=0.782 distance=0.218 + 4. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.727 distance=0.273 + 5. Cornflower similarity=0.701 distance=0.299 + +Snowdrop +-------- + 1. Winter Aconite similarity=0.853 distance=0.147 + 2. Reed Warbler similarity=0.668 distance=0.332 + 3. Orange Tip Butterfly similarity=0.663 distance=0.337 + 4. Lesser Celandine similarity=0.654 distance=0.346 + 5. Cormorant similarity=0.632 distance=0.368 + +Speckled Wood Butterfly +----------------------- + 1. Cuckoo Pint similarity=0.876 distance=0.124 + 2. Red Clover similarity=0.838 distance=0.162 + 3. Teasel similarity=0.787 distance=0.213 + 4. White Campion similarity=0.773 distance=0.227 + 5. Dog Rose similarity=0.769 distance=0.231 + +Swallow +------- + 1. Doves Foot Cranesbill similarity=0.870 distance=0.130 + 2. Buttercup similarity=0.842 distance=0.158 + 3. Red Campion similarity=0.802 distance=0.198 + 4. Oxeye Daisy similarity=0.758 distance=0.242 + 5. Honeysuckle similarity=0.754 distance=0.246 + +Swift +----- + 1. Cornflower similarity=0.936 distance=0.064 + 2. Common Poppy similarity=0.885 distance=0.115 + 3. Cuckoo Pint similarity=0.857 distance=0.143 + 4. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.855 distance=0.145 + 5. Goats Beard similarity=0.818 distance=0.182 + +Teasel +------ + 1. Dog Rose similarity=0.937 distance=0.063 + 2. Red Clover similarity=0.849 distance=0.151 + 3. Common Poppy similarity=0.828 distance=0.172 + 4. White Campion similarity=0.819 distance=0.181 + 5. Doves Foot Cranesbill similarity=0.788 distance=0.212 + +White Campion +------------- + 1. Red Clover similarity=0.892 distance=0.108 + 2. Dog Rose similarity=0.854 distance=0.146 + 3. Teasel similarity=0.819 distance=0.181 + 4. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.795 distance=0.205 + 5. Swift similarity=0.773 distance=0.227 + +White Clover +------------ + 1. Goats Beard similarity=0.855 distance=0.145 + 2. Horsetail similarity=0.823 distance=0.177 + 3. Gatekeeper Butterfly similarity=0.814 distance=0.186 + 4. Rosebay Willowherb similarity=0.787 distance=0.213 + 5. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.755 distance=0.245 + +Whitethroat +----------- + 1. Orange Tip Butterfly similarity=0.885 distance=0.115 + 2. Common Vetch similarity=0.857 distance=0.143 + 3. Reed Warbler similarity=0.856 distance=0.144 + 4. Cow Parsley similarity=0.839 distance=0.161 + 5. Yellow Flag Iris similarity=0.828 distance=0.172 + +Winter Aconite +-------------- + 1. Snowdrop similarity=0.853 distance=0.147 + 2. Cowslip similarity=0.681 distance=0.319 + 3. Cuckoo similarity=0.677 distance=0.323 + 4. Bluebell similarity=0.663 distance=0.337 + 5. Cormorant similarity=0.638 distance=0.362 + +Yellow Flag Iris +---------------- + 1. Whitethroat similarity=0.828 distance=0.172 + 2. Bluebell similarity=0.814 distance=0.186 + 3. Cuckoo similarity=0.780 distance=0.220 + 4. Orange Tip Butterfly similarity=0.742 distance=0.258 + 5. Reed Warbler similarity=0.716 distance=0.284 + +Redwing +------- + 1. Winter Aconite similarity=0.506 distance=0.494 + 2. Snowdrop similarity=0.499 distance=0.501 + 3. Snowberry similarity=0.491 distance=0.509 + 4. Cormorant similarity=0.484 distance=0.516 + 5. Garden Warbler similarity=0.481 distance=0.519 + +Snowberry +--------- + 1. Speckled Wood Butterfly similarity=0.601 distance=0.399 + 2. Red Admiral Butterfly similarity=0.544 distance=0.456 + 3. Rosebay Willowherb similarity=0.543 distance=0.457 + 4. Cuckoo Pint similarity=0.540 distance=0.460 + 5. Teasel similarity=0.509 distance=0.491 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/species_similarity_heatmap.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/species_similarity_heatmap.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..346ee50 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/analysis/species_similarity_heatmap.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1878d9e --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Black Headed Gull", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "detectability_peak_timing": "winter", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 2, + "target_peak_label": "February", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.8099140012788641, + "target_trough_value": 0.15930676225356794, + "target_mean_value": 0.41979462891906966, + "target_amplitude": 0.6506072390252963, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.3630015032901893, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.05286343612334802, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.44493392070484583, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.350471293916024, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.6318578528952912, + "February": 0.8099140012788641, + "March": 0.6404944760906929, + "April": 0.4188149130696801, + "May": 0.35975830561282374, + "June": 0.3560305011107351, + "July": 0.3287524703192311, + "August": 0.23917106433860502, + "September": 0.15930676225356794, + "October": 0.2615133541455453, + "November": 0.3091108146049577, + "December": 0.5228110313088417 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 1.06, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.334, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.152, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.504, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.554, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.035, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 9.25, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.062, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.015, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.321, + "BASELINE": 0.294, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.454, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.024, + "WINTER_PEAK": 2.02, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 11.175, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.97, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 6.019, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 8.676, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 6.91, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 7.022, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.6, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 8.106, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.168, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.151, + "SUMMER_LOW": 8.62, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 7.365, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.97, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.055, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 16.259, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 20.576, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 36.706, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.498, + "SCALE": 1.308, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.202, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.164, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 81.148, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 151.128, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.774 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.224 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Black Headed Gull is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5eb29fc --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.224", + "INITIAL_Y": "1.06", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.334", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.152", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.504", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.554", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.035", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "9.25", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.062", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.015", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.321", + "BASELINE": "0.294", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.454", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.024", + "WINTER_PEAK": "2.02", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "11.175", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.97", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "6.019", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "8.676", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "6.91", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "7.022", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.6", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "8.106", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "8.168", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.151", + "SUMMER_LOW": "8.62", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "7.365", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.97", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.055", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "16.259", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "20.576", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "36.706", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "11.498", + "SCALE": "1.308", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.202", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.164", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "81.148", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "151.128", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "8.774", + "SPECIES": "Black Headed Gull" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1c924ae --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,106 +2,79 +3,91 +4,52 +5,41 +6,38 +7,33 +8,11 +9,10 +10,37 +11,79 +12,92 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..85b36da --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..847ad22 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,106,0.9142086,111.36108974609797 +2,79,0.8114656,98.84581430044656 +3,91,0.6682243,81.39738156348943 +4,52,0.4846478,59.03565898532232 +5,41,0.3923866,47.79718696341977 +6,38,0.3648981,44.448772481773446 +7,33,0.316595,38.56490106105531 +8,11,0.1954987,23.813983237464054 +9,10,0.1769716,21.55717002674286 +10,37,0.2556794,31.14468252609796 +11,79,0.3140196,38.251187811658944 +12,92,0.5160300999999999,62.85838295306771 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d8f2c61 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/black_headed_gull_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blackbird_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blackbird_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6e5bad3 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blackbird_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Blackbird", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "strong", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 3, + "target_peak_label": "March", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 1.00793449391471, + "target_trough_value": 0.18123986301147627, + "target_mean_value": 0.5591013398309653, + "target_amplitude": 0.8266946309032337, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.31946520527280137, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.08418367346938775, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.33163265306122447, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.849680170575693, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.6441390227725977, + "February": 0.8104078043446072, + "March": 1.00793449391471, + "April": 0.8576168468634761, + "May": 0.6590506838496218, + "June": 0.6194507319122071, + "July": 0.569445567129101, + "August": 0.31294291560244564, + "September": 0.18123986301147627, + "October": 0.26836179115940584, + "November": 0.34310620759980665, + "December": 0.4355201498121281 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.953, + "GROWTH_RATE": 1.876, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.47, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.823, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.526, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.855, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 7.54, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.296, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.1, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.284, + "BASELINE": 0.322, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.392, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.033, + "WINTER_PEAK": 3.095, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 11.18, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.845, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 6.64, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 9.886, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 8.54, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.686, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.99, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.187, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.958, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.141, + "SUMMER_LOW": 8.975, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 7.16, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 3.685, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.08, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 12.698, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 26.292, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 41.001, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 13.244, + "SCALE": 1.348, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.13, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.175, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 91.661, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 174.82, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 9.978 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.268 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Blackbird is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blackbird_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blackbird_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c159d98 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blackbird_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.268", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.953", + "GROWTH_RATE": "1.876", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.47", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.823", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.526", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.855", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "7.54", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.296", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.1", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.284", + "BASELINE": "0.322", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.392", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.033", + "WINTER_PEAK": "3.095", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "11.18", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.845", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 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"late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.6735024098302164, + "target_trough_value": 0.04101596796775944, + "target_mean_value": 0.2115108255843349, + "target_amplitude": 0.632486441862457, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.06087580296904315, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.04152249134948097, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.25259515570934254, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.9722518676627534, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.1441784724783836, + "February": 0.1450141574924919, + "March": 0.20241505256838796, + "April": 0.5598528136061425, + "May": 0.6735024098302164, + "June": 0.33031632246587955, + "July": 0.12554419683731582, + "August": 0.04126504489374883, + "September": 0.04101596796775944, + "October": 0.05395510109241276, + "November": 0.06499309309222377, + "December": 0.15607727468705623 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.081, + "GROWTH_RATE": 1.874, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.696, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.926, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.618, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.12, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 9.237, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.103, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.04, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 15.83, + "BASELINE": 0.041, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.578, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.024, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.61, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.98, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 9.685, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.444, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.542, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 12.462, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.358, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.808, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.888, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.566, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.153, + "SUMMER_LOW": 2.11, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 4.085, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.672, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.01, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 14.48, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 26.366, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 43.846, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.5, + "SCALE": 1.057, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.146, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.188, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 78.694, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 147.406, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 11.265 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.41 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Blackcap is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blackcap_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blackcap_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4a97df3 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blackcap_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.41", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.081", + "GROWTH_RATE": "1.874", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.696", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.926", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.618", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.12", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "9.237", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.103", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.04", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "15.83", + "BASELINE": "0.041", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.578", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.024", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.61", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.98", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "9.685", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 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"classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 3, + "target_peak_label": "March", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.7836658138578775, + "target_trough_value": 0.19819306625775013, + "target_mean_value": 0.4217387502672212, + "target_amplitude": 0.5854727476001274, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.40450915989234393, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.0477326968973747, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.477326968973747, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.723291626564004, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.42456968254540567, + "February": 0.6510782130778153, + "March": 0.7836658138578775, + "April": 0.5229357236389086, + "May": 0.38545695529963925, + "June": 0.3746149212400747, + "July": 0.2834618134966642, + "August": 0.19819306625775013, + "September": 0.2894777224917703, + "October": 0.3178007841042193, + "November": 0.3363504871313674, + "December": 0.49325982006516156 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.888, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.078, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.581, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.85, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.631, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.755, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.232, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.058, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.17, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 17.61, + "BASELINE": 0.317, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.419, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.02, + "WINTER_PEAK": 2.815, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.98, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.305, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.894, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.066, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 9.094, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.642, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 8.173, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 8.556, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.972, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.147, + "SUMMER_LOW": 7.435, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 5.6, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.707, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.175, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.184, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 26.046, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 38.7, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.696, + "SCALE": 1.23, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.2, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.136, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 83.998, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 160.188, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.892 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.258 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Blue Tit is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..19408b7 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.258", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.888", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.078", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.581", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.85", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.631", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.755", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.232", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.058", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.17", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "17.61", + "BASELINE": "0.317", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.419", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.02", + "WINTER_PEAK": "2.815", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.98", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.305", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.894", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "10.066", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "9.094", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "10.642", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "8.173", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "8.556", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "7.972", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.147", + "SUMMER_LOW": "7.435", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "5.6", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.707", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.175", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "15.184", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "26.046", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "38.7", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "9.696", + "SCALE": "1.23", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.2", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.136", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "83.998", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "160.188", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "10.892", + "SPECIES": "Blue Tit" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1e07acf --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,74 +2,78 +3,83 +4,75 +5,55 +6,29 +7,18 +8,27 +9,28 +10,29 +11,37 +12,58 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..50a1a39 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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+9,28,0.2798025,31.09273377694712 +10,29,0.3156719,35.07867995304929 +11,37,0.3359084,37.327437941549 +12,58,0.4520546,50.23405198468319 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..046f2b2 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/blue_tit_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/buzzard_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/buzzard_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0bb0a4c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/buzzard_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Buzzard", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 3, + "target_peak_label": "March", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.993754602724945, + "target_trough_value": 0.34388897996704204, + "target_mean_value": 0.6013872841601938, + "target_amplitude": 0.6498656227579029, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.5011297544025949, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.06473214285714286, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.40625, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4757990867579909, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.5666157502465992, + "February": 0.7433717729933225, + "March": 0.993754602724945, + "April": 0.8256562983904419, + "May": 0.5992217417652741, + "June": 0.5500963869237387, + "July": 0.5079521536686785, + "August": 0.34388897996704204, + "September": 0.44315404438611483, + "October": 0.4960167813182803, + "November": 0.5144937447764321, + "December": 0.6324251527614568 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.556, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.19, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.232, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.403, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.514, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.14, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 7.904, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.05, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.065, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 17.292, + "BASELINE": 0.498, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.448, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.029, + "WINTER_PEAK": 3.085, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 9.935, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.305, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.846, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 9.656, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 10.146, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.257, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.064, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 8.126, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.072, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.162, + "SUMMER_LOW": 7.725, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 6.3, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.543, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 6.94, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.391, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 31.803, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 47.513, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.538, + "SCALE": 1.119, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.182, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.174, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 86.39, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 158.823, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.654 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.24 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Buzzard is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/buzzard_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/buzzard_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f51b217 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/buzzard_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.24", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.556", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.19", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.232", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.403", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.514", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.14", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "7.904", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.05", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.065", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "17.292", + "BASELINE": "0.498", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.448", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.029", + "WINTER_PEAK": "3.085", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "9.935", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.305", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.846", 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+9,16 +10,18 +11,15 +12,14 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/buzzard_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/buzzard_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7bb2dc7 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/buzzard_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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"detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "late_autumn", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "late_autumn_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 4, + "target_peak_label": "April", + "target_trough_month": 11, + "target_trough_label": "November", + "target_peak_value": 0.6199725038934809, + "target_trough_value": 0.0, + "target_mean_value": 0.195070674578276, + "target_amplitude": 0.6199725038934809, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.05484114180302685, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.05928853754940711, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3932806324110672, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.856164383561644, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.15548881110238016, + "February": 0.2228089711288166, + "March": 0.5230904166336656, + "April": 0.6199725038934809, + "May": 0.2828531042939495, + "June": 0.15930968263444367, + "July": 0.14569420678251, + "August": 0.03400020352216318, + "September": 0.03399752272842824, + "October": 0.017383941329353787, + "November": 0.0, + "December": 0.14624873089012044 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.166, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.044, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.794, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.59, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.364, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.95, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 9.923, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.119, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.17, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.016, + "BASELINE": 0.034, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.506, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.03, + "WINTER_PEAK": 3.675, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.915, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 11.84, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.548, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.312, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 9.964, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.074, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.456, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.496, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 5.68, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.132, + "SUMMER_LOW": 10.865, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 9.11, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.813, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.12, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 12.831, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 24.517, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 39.8, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.059, + "SCALE": 1.036, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.199, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.15, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 82.822, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 156.426, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.644 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.365 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Canada Goose is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around November. The model indicates weak baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/canada_goose_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/canada_goose_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4ace265 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/canada_goose_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.365", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.166", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.044", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.794", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.59", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.364", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.95", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "9.923", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.119", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.17", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.016", + "BASELINE": "0.034", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.506", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.03", + "WINTER_PEAK": "3.675", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.915", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "11.84", + 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/canada_goose_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/canada_goose_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..280f0de Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/canada_goose_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/canada_goose_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/canada_goose_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f0d7415 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/canada_goose_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,6,0.16605209999999998,13.519903174287908 +2,24,0.25197579999999997,20.515780398222816 +3,40,0.5009612999999999,40.78809162946688 +4,36,0.5435518,44.255795055948745 +5,39,0.2962928,24.124054843260957 +6,20,0.1741724,14.181055124466017 +7,6,0.09165145999999999,7.462229414636257 +8,6,0.03579609,2.914504970536932 +9,3,0.033271629999999996,2.708964331379927 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"late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "strong", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 6, + "target_peak_label": "June", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.8187244086048439, + "target_trough_value": 0.0, + "target_mean_value": 0.30583473679231316, + "target_amplitude": 0.8187244086048439, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.05374213781531037, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.055865921787709494, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.39106145251396646, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.540796963946869, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.31504887789580904, + "February": 0.315149444042533, + "March": 0.3252178919693677, + "April": 0.4347975406485112, + "May": 0.72931403607943, + "June": 0.8187244086048439, + "July": 0.429837293752252, + "August": 0.0, + "September": 0.0, + "October": 0.04432614968397435, + "November": 0.06312213431444091, + "December": 0.19447906451659588 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.284, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.108, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.248, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.87, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.456, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.0, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.154, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.271, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.235, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 14.812, + "BASELINE": 0.044, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.537, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.03, + "WINTER_PEAK": 5.73, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.18, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.01, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 8.054, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 9.954, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 7.058, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 12.792, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.324, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 6.442, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.836, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.101, + "SUMMER_LOW": 8.06, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 5.965, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.644, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.025, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 14.736, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 25.73, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 40.722, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 7.358, + "SCALE": 1.03, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.21, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.172, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 93.064, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 176.662, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.298 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.237 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Chaffinch is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around June and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates weak baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8eaf351 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.237", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.284", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.108", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.248", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.87", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.456", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.154", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.271", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.235", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "14.812", + "BASELINE": "0.044", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.537", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.03", + "WINTER_PEAK": "5.73", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.18", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.01", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "8.054", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "9.954", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "7.058", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "12.792", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.324", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "6.442", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "8.836", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.101", + "SUMMER_LOW": "8.06", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "5.965", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.644", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.025", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "14.736", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "25.73", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "40.722", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "7.358", + "SCALE": "1.03", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.21", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.172", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "93.064", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "176.662", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "10.298", + "SPECIES": "Chaffinch" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f603f85 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,25 +2,43 +3,46 +4,59 +5,65 +6,74 +7,12 +8,1 +9,4 +10,13 +11,17 +12,12 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2afbd47 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 09:46:31,chaffinch_observed.csv,4.050542518734072223112430133,0.651,3.624,0.432,4.257,0.335,6.79,8.991,0.13,6.81,16.68,0.033,0.281,0.015,7.27,11.3,10.44,5.499,8.578,8.165,8.992,7.892,12.75,3.034,0.027,8.36,5.65,6.835,6.86,17.592,34.593,60.14,9.046,1.442,0.323,12.053,97.772,187.205,8.338 +2026-05-21 09:46:32,chaffinch_observed.csv,0.2469008718464824957638574652,0.436,1.955,4.07,7.744,0.022,7.59,15.414,0.436,6.96,19.824,0.058,0.316,0.044,6.35,9.84,9.45,4.544,15.168,11.911,18.424,6.318,7.073,5.564,0.065,6.54,5.21,1.977,6.95,14.416,10.408,15.038,5.777,0.984,0.184,12.033,69.040,124.073,14.007 +2026-05-21 09:46:32,chaffinch_observed.csv,2.373586889956149847923247124,0.301,1.398,4.73,3.32,0.828,6.83,11.006,0.138,6.56,15.684,0.071,0.15,0.008,7.47,10.08,11.16,7.97,8.578,14.856,2.299,4.866,0.424,9.309,0.182,7.61,7.07,1.254,7.23,23.657,36.365,67.518,5.212,1.35,0.034,12.282,67.144,127.727,6.561 +2026-05-21 09:46:32,chaffinch_observed.csv,20.55556062460799823123859213,0.642,0.459,1.586,2.69,0.943,7.62,8.779,0.291,7.53,26.537,0.032,0.603,0.024,5.99,10.55,9.92,3.306,4.434,5.475,3.392,12.906,12.345,13.467,0.188,6.53,5.3,2.85,7.49,20.017,41.496,73.733,9.259,1.611,0.293,12.293,83.583,154.801,12.365 +2026-05-21 09:46:32,chaffinch_observed.csv,1.388580821751718934417790328,0.201,0.617,0.942,2.591,0.764,6.88,5.023,0.047,6.85,22.855,0.028,0.239,0.035,5.77,10.43,9.26,10.205,4.903,6.661,3.145,2.386,3.915,0.856,0.103,8.87,5.59,3.551,7.03,10.184,17.792,17.717,17.867,1.066,0.268,12.188,122.790,238.083,7.498 +2026-05-21 09:46:33,chaffinch_observed.csv,0.8371263507575197934705762361,0.157,1.97,2.311,7.917,0.213,6.74,14.158,0.444,6.99,12.412,0.039,0.102,0.032,5.01,10.68,11.35,9.849,12.522,19.879,5.164,4.478,4.377,4.578,0.101,6.59,6.03,6.397,7.55,22.16,30.118,52.409,7.826,1.366,0.28,12.045,89.960,169.799,10.122 +2026-05-21 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09:46:36,chaffinch_observed.csv,2.180091881769690764745481563,0.622,1.995,2.01,5.411,0.692,6.74,15.842,0.132,7.59,19.938,0.056,0.459,0.041,6.56,11.71,11.29,4.555,10.620,8.924,12.315,5.714,9.974,1.454,0.078,8.1,7.14,3.886,6.71,19.153,6.993,1.87,12.116,1.342,0.295,12.017,61.940,113.745,10.135 +2026-05-21 09:46:36,chaffinch_observed.csv,0.8026807188173980629008394219,0.419,2.707,3.477,5.049,0.362,6.95,3.929,0.191,7.25,13.96,0.038,0.399,0.005,5.42,10.73,10.2,11.84,12.760,8.886,16.634,10.620,9.306,11.933,0.146,8.19,6.47,4.722,7.36,6.862,41.176,62.506,19.846,1.53,0.2,12.111,87.183,164.952,9.414 +2026-05-21 09:46:37,chaffinch_observed.csv,0.6524498311890320796333562637,0.648,1.575,0.75,6.911,0.469,6.76,14.173,0.242,6.82,15.005,0.014,0.681,0.014,4.6,10.27,10.13,5.804,17.458,15.566,19.349,3.710,3.642,3.777,0.093,7.85,7.38,7.61,7.46,16.556,23.462,36.678,10.246,1.103,0.047,12.034,73.502,139.424,7.58 +2026-05-21 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+6,74,0.7468122,76.25628902682817 +7,12,0.27718665,28.303267269573606 +8,1,0.001306914313,0.13344778725551962 +9,4,0.003595319657,0.3671146975210484 +10,13,0.04200192,4.288776416884612 +11,17,0.06017594,6.1445084495152456 +12,12,0.16865760999999999,17.221469406544326 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3705c96 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/chaffinch_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coal_tit_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coal_tit_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3b54e01 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coal_tit_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Coal Tit", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "detectability_peak_timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 7, + "target_trough_label": "July", + "target_peak_value": 0.5953104080888479, + "target_trough_value": 0.0, + "target_mean_value": 0.16406511606117974, + "target_amplitude": 0.5953104080888479, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.0806302045920826, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.04780876494023904, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3426294820717131, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.870304114490161, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.09805528107899339, + "February": 0.10006634081582867, + "March": 0.1530705408885017, + "April": 0.40883168951135435, + "May": 0.5953104080888479, + "June": 0.24998132746428625, + "July": 0.0, + "August": 0.0, + "September": 0.04088854012888354, + "October": 0.054660766072781156, + "November": 0.07192424969309194, + "December": 0.19599224899158804 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.232, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.236, + "DECAY_RATE": 4.182, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 5.048, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.356, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.035, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 8.258, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.05, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.02, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 14.184, + "BASELINE": 0.048, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.502, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.024, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.9, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.95, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.025, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 6.458, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.924, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 8.554, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 13.692, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.082, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.637, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.631, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.1, + "SUMMER_LOW": 6.96, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 5.305, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 5.46, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.02, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 14.572, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 24.202, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 41.938, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.812, + "SCALE": 1.083, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.172, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.148, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 84.342, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 163.234, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.808 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.537 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Coal Tit is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around July. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coal_tit_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coal_tit_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c49bc70 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coal_tit_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.537", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.232", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.236", + "DECAY_RATE": "4.182", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "5.048", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.356", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.035", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "8.258", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.05", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.02", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "14.184", + "BASELINE": "0.048", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.502", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.024", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.9", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.95", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.025", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 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+8,3 +9,3 +10,1 +11,4 +12,1 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coal_tit_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coal_tit_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4f0bd36 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coal_tit_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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+ "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "strong", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 10, + "target_trough_label": "October", + "target_peak_value": 0.9417603519124234, + "target_trough_value": 0.18697509300245654, + "target_mean_value": 0.5247953698728599, + "target_amplitude": 0.7547852589099668, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.34191288616697213, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.064343163538874, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.5683646112600537, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 0.8744257274119449, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.5710956009390109, + "February": 0.5715269202318037, + "March": 0.5936529743970521, + "April": 0.7491520271810249, + "May": 0.9417603519124234, + "June": 0.7608026791469876, + "July": 0.5583969910442957, + "August": 0.32216206232578837, + "September": 0.319171278793318, + "October": 0.18697509300245654, + "November": 0.2425176475944163, + "December": 0.4803308119057407 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.893, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.612, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.284, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.594, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.411, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.16, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.106, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.249, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.115, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 17.566, + "BASELINE": 0.322, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.373, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.024, + "WINTER_PEAK": 5.1, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.895, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 11.385, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.552, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.462, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 8.786, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 12.056, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 5.604, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 6.918, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 5.792, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.136, + "SUMMER_LOW": 10.045, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 8.21, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.972, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.16, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 14.829, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 27.552, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 50.836, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.258, + "SCALE": 1.334, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.212, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.164, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 84.298, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 159.726, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.652 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.31 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Collared Dove is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around October. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7240f2f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.31", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.893", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.612", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.284", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.594", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.411", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.16", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.106", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.249", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.115", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "17.566", + "BASELINE": "0.322", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.373", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.024", + "WINTER_PEAK": "5.1", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.895", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "11.385", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.552", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "10.462", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "8.786", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "12.056", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "5.604", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "6.918", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "5.792", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.136", + "SUMMER_LOW": "10.045", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "8.21", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.972", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.16", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "14.829", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "27.552", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "50.836", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "8.258", + "SCALE": "1.334", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.212", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.164", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "84.298", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "159.726", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "10.652", + "SPECIES": "Collared Dove" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..79446ba --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ 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0000000..0a6d552 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7039f6a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,85,0.7602016,92.15070097920912 +2,60,0.6217963,75.37338110216896 +3,88,0.6204187,75.20639012810503 +4,98,0.7744617,93.8792927251797 +5,99,0.9037474,109.55114593041858 +6,91,0.7915829999999999,95.95471560862971 +7,80,0.5256864,63.72305748269527 +8,70,0.3455362,41.88547227957979 +9,48,0.2960343,35.884912974255094 +10,20,0.2000258,24.246880937802665 +11,34,0.25889280000000003,31.382666122342012 +12,45,0.4510115,54.67105814389837 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dc7c47e Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/collared_dove_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5e163c5 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Common Cleavers", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "detectability_peak_timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.7055202826282726, + "target_trough_value": 0.04800273395860682, + "target_mean_value": 0.21404045898897828, + "target_amplitude": 0.6575175486696657, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.06803489734013847, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.043859649122807015, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.18771929824561404, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.2490450725744844, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.14001506374381778, + "February": 0.14056245031522496, + "March": 0.17567176356656627, + "April": 0.45532036764911293, + "May": 0.7055202826282726, + "June": 0.413111540600952, + "July": 0.16778419527638797, + "August": 0.04892130367703883, + "September": 0.04800273395860682, + "October": 0.05035251321000985, + "November": 0.07248100910281964, + "December": 0.15074228413892982 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.104, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.618, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.27, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.705, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.565, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.845, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 9.964, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.092, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.115, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 19.888, + "BASELINE": 0.048, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.57, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.025, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.885, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.865, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.285, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 6.434, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 9.585, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 10.904, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.511, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.598, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.374, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.79, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.144, + "SUMMER_LOW": 1.945, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 4.47, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 5.689, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.16, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 16.458, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 19.493, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 31.448, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.02, + "SCALE": 1.028, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.107, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.118, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 87.851, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 165.426, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.774 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.443 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Common Cleavers is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..12e8a58 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.443", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.104", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.618", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.27", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.705", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.565", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.845", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "9.964", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.092", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.115", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "19.888", + "BASELINE": "0.048", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.57", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.025", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.885", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.865", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.285", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "6.434", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "9.585", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "10.904", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "8.511", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.598", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "7.374", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "8.79", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.144", + "SUMMER_LOW": "1.945", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "4.47", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "5.689", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.16", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "16.458", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "19.493", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "31.448", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "10.02", + "SCALE": "1.028", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.107", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.118", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "87.851", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "165.426", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "8.774", + "SPECIES": "Common Cleavers" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..07158a9 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,3 +3,14 +4,61 +5,69 +6,44 +7,4 +8,0 +9,0 +10,1 +11,3 +12,2 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e4a3fbe --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..353697d Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d0e1268 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,0.125531,12.462898497433011 +2,3,0.14220249999999998,14.118069031404334 +3,14,0.21100439999999998,20.948820767075492 +4,61,0.48852519999999994,48.50148553774096 +5,69,0.645407,64.07693661751078 +6,44,0.4548736,45.16050621728453 +7,4,0.15092824,14.984373067339611 +8,0,0.05352424,5.313963644615624 +9,0,0.04828479,4.793783501604134 +10,1,0.05620187,5.579802607928921 +11,3,0.07117215,7.066073569827986 +12,2,0.13021902000000002,12.928331875753395 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e1aafa9 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_cleavers_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3465b7d --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Common Kestrel", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "late_autumn", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "late_autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 4, + "target_peak_label": "April", + "target_trough_month": 11, + "target_trough_label": "November", + "target_peak_value": 0.7649842854269909, + "target_trough_value": 0.16444544724193405, + "target_mean_value": 0.3882718232372166, + "target_amplitude": 0.6005388381850569, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.3686350234535814, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.06880733944954129, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.6192660550458715, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.1338199513381995, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.3303514809352735, + "February": 0.3528718668252337, + "March": 0.5526928871315183, + "April": 0.7649842854269909, + "May": 0.5127955885404, + "June": 0.3441731317515394, + "July": 0.32124930848274114, + "August": 0.28200004348626295, + "September": 0.28199951218647074, + "October": 0.2661563066243525, + "November": 0.16444544724193405, + "December": 0.4855420202138818 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.964, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.466, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.796, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.038, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.526, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.875, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 8.56, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.048, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.08, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 18.536, + "BASELINE": 0.282, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.436, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.03, + "WINTER_PEAK": 3.945, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 11.135, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 11.96, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.997, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.67, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 10.864, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.249, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.47, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.179, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.54, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.12, + "SUMMER_LOW": 10.83, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 9.575, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.854, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 6.975, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.392, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 21.988, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 40.029, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.831, + "SCALE": 1.335, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.27, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.105, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 85.708, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 162.576, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 9.071 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.549 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Common Kestrel is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around November. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..10cf22d --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.549", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.964", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.466", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.796", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.038", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.526", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.875", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "8.56", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.048", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.08", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "18.536", + "BASELINE": "0.282", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.436", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.03", + "WINTER_PEAK": "3.945", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "11.135", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "11.96", + 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0000000..c12541b Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2f4665b --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,16,0.7062589,14.375354473733758 +2,13,0.46279519999999996,9.41983888449761 +3,8,0.5862451,11.932566260035085 +4,18,0.7113693,14.479372719029595 +5,5,0.5634924,11.469452623188143 +6,5,0.4075139,8.294630716120803 +7,7,0.3156667,6.425151892675295 +8,4,0.2842186,5.785050104187494 +9,8,0.2816551,5.732872041449571 +10,9,0.22779449999999998,4.636581124382212 +11,2,0.1859877,3.7856359973013465 +12,11,0.423126,8.612402954572424 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a598f4f Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_kestrel_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..759ebe6 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Common Starling", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "winter", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 2, + "target_peak_label": "February", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 1.1902003786424675, + "target_trough_value": 0.43480445206900903, + "target_mean_value": 0.7756278512637006, + "target_amplitude": 0.7553959265734586, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.48899329091444604, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.06467661691542288, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.41044776119402987, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.225254394079556, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 1.0986372154294322, + "February": 1.1902003786424675, + "March": 0.9358653685452204, + "April": 0.8099791607582273, + "May": 0.801069673094801, + "June": 0.8008277169314825, + "July": 0.6652442621258526, + "August": 0.43480445206900903, + "September": 0.551284393855851, + "October": 0.5952835428037899, + "November": 0.6141104812924193, + "December": 0.8102275696158545 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 1.038, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.162, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.649, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.684, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.462, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.175, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 8.584, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.219, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.105, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.184, + "BASELINE": 0.582, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.402, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.026, + "WINTER_PEAK": 1.79, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.82, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 9.81, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.708, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.058, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 6.978, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.7, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.958, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 8.313, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.341, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.186, + "SUMMER_LOW": 7.425, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 5.455, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.504, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 6.915, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 13.182, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 27.942, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 48.424, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.286, + "SCALE": 1.174, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.165, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.13, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 92.974, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 174.256, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.912 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.452 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Common Starling is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0ee00e7 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.452", + "INITIAL_Y": "1.038", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.162", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.649", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.684", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.462", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.175", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "8.584", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.219", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.105", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.184", + "BASELINE": "0.582", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.402", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.026", + "WINTER_PEAK": "1.79", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.82", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "9.81", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.708", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "10.058", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "6.978", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "10.7", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.958", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "8.313", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "8.341", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.186", + "SUMMER_LOW": "7.425", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "5.455", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.504", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "6.915", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "13.182", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "27.942", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "48.424", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "10.286", + "SCALE": "1.174", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.165", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.13", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "92.974", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "174.256", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "8.912", + "SPECIES": "Common Starling" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8c45df9 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,135 +2,101 +3,109 +4,106 +5,127 +6,99 +7,78 +8,79 +9,87 +10,98 +11,99 +12,121 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..31fadb7 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ 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new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5038bbb Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/common_starling_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d1e02b4 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Coot", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "detectability_peak_timing": "winter", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "strong", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 2, + "target_peak_label": "February", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.6497519376515021, + "target_trough_value": 0.0, + "target_mean_value": 0.272580850304194, + "target_amplitude": 0.6497519376515021, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.07695244462174697, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.06976744186046512, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.45930232558139533, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.321614063124251, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.5159699316858576, + "February": 0.6497519376515021, + "March": 0.514911138280055, + "April": 0.345908698138493, + "May": 0.30779982331631744, + "June": 0.3060090129623142, + "July": 0.2962015011240162, + "August": 0.046591044294640206, + "September": 0.0, + "October": 0.0, + "November": 0.051543466033475316, + "December": 0.2362836501636566 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.85, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.503, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.308, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 2.998, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.559, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.0, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 9.338, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.256, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.165, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 19.539, + "BASELINE": 0.05, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.344, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.024, + "WINTER_PEAK": 2.04, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.51, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.86, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 6.876, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 8.069, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 6.578, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 7.812, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.883, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 6.788, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 6.294, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.118, + "SUMMER_LOW": 9.185, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 7.185, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.706, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.08, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 17.162, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 23.89, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 36.011, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.19, + "SCALE": 1.144, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.158, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.129, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 88.313, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 168.751, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 9.57 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.234 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Coot is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c295a9b --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.234", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.85", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.503", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.308", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "2.998", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.559", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "9.338", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.256", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.165", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "19.539", + "BASELINE": "0.05", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.344", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.024", + "WINTER_PEAK": "2.04", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.51", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.86", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "6.876", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "8.069", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "6.578", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "7.812", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "6.883", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "6.788", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "6.294", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.118", + "SUMMER_LOW": "9.185", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "7.185", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.706", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.08", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "17.162", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "23.89", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "36.011", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "8.19", + "SCALE": "1.144", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.158", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.129", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "88.313", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "168.751", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "9.57", + "SPECIES": "Coot" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ee85a19 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,6 +2,7 +3,5 +4,3 +5,3 +6,6 +7,1 +8,1 +9,0 +10,1 +11,3 +12,3 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..535e639 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/coot_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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"resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "detectability_peak_timing": "winter", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 2, + "target_peak_label": "February", + "target_trough_month": 7, + "target_trough_label": "July", + "target_peak_value": 0.4645468966315792, + "target_trough_value": 0.0, + "target_mean_value": 0.15966405215719734, + "target_amplitude": 0.4645468966315792, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.11624230059775015, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.082687338501292, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.42377260981912146, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4839527027027026, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.41156285373699997, + "February": 0.4645468966315792, + "March": 0.23329056358938222, + "April": 0.113994817406412, + "May": 0.1021644544250188, + "June": 0.07169554838666081, + "July": 0.0, + "August": 0.01391969522807205, + "September": 0.05184172899060768, + "October": 0.06575676647597495, + "November": 0.09409221485618724, + "December": 0.293103086159473 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 1.094, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.368, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.514, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.432, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.52, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.06, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.742, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.048, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.005, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.631, + "BASELINE": 0.054, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.387, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.032, + "WINTER_PEAK": 1.67, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.985, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 9.95, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.453, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 8.942, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 7.232, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.734, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.538, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.237, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.128, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.138, + "SUMMER_LOW": 6.74, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 5.115, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.326, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.155, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.867, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 23.735, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 39.568, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.154, + "SCALE": 1.424, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.164, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.156, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 80.72, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 146.312, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 11.258 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.154 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Cormorant is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around July. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/cormorant_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/cormorant_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..056ea10 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/cormorant_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.154", + "INITIAL_Y": "1.094", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.368", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.514", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.432", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.52", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.06", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.742", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.048", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.005", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.631", + "BASELINE": "0.054", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.387", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.032", + "WINTER_PEAK": "1.67", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.985", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "9.95", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 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+6,2 +7,1 +8,4 +9,4 +10,4 +11,8 +12,7 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/cormorant_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/cormorant_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c95e62e --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/cormorant_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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09:52:53,cormorant_observed.csv,0.3614486902159122569380421625,1.207,0.512,1.162,7.137,0.259,7.46,11.46,0.095,6.9,8.301,0.051,0.64,0.033,1.76,11.05,8.9,3.914,7.054,7.262,6.845,8.904,10.914,6.893,0.117,5.99,6.29,6.455,6.67,16.546,13.232,10.162,16.302,1.013,0.268,12.234,45.748,85.873,5.623 +2026-05-21 09:52:53,cormorant_observed.csv,0.7419730978236591756951772035,0.968,1.88,2.826,1.769,0.942,6.79,8.091,0.097,6.87,15.459,0.043,0.227,0.013,11.79,10.85,11.18,6.126,18.528,17.055,20.000,2.746,3.948,1.545,0.045,7.23,5.72,5.334,7.11,19.751,15.643,29.79,1.496,1.595,0.188,12.031,100.645,191.661,9.629 +2026-05-21 09:52:54,cormorant_observed.csv,5.709882493385001411160280825,0.83,2.769,3.796,7.432,0.759,7.23,15.942,0.001,7.01,7.658,0.061,0.512,0.044,11.51,11.79,9.52,3.795,7.348,3.781,10.915,6.116,9.192,3.039,0.221,6.61,5.53,4.326,7.02,21.516,31.216,54.801,7.631,1.72,0.207,12.298,71.895,128.252,15.538 +2026-05-21 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09:52:55,cormorant_observed.csv,0.1167646716777506380301162518,1.32,3.724,3.891,4.475,0.913,6.99,3.153,0.029,7.47,11.724,0.068,0.027,0.002,1.49,10.9,8.5,9.513,10.033,2.381,17.685,6.812,5.602,8.021,0.175,5.92,5.09,5.727,7.33,7.079,22.200,40.593,3.808,1.334,0.063,12.212,123.519,234.991,12.047 +2026-05-21 09:52:55,cormorant_observed.csv,1.140237415354388317872491179,0.759,0.86,4.761,5.716,0.775,7.27,14.244,0.084,6.66,27.011,0.044,0.08,0.003,12.0,11.42,10.94,3.115,6.525,9.297,3.753,5.876,3.614,8.137,0.153,5.85,4.94,2.324,6.85,18.072,25.970,51.241,0.7,0.815,0.172,12.126,103.757,202.354,5.16 +2026-05-21 09:52:56,cormorant_observed.csv,1.078608191707386099313711083,1.32,0.783,5.688,3.128,0.65,7.43,11.028,0.045,7.25,22.456,0.06,0.057,0.044,1.63,11.0,11.23,4.367,5.235,0.711,9.759,5.260,5.276,5.244,0.077,7.53,5.95,4.906,6.71,20.905,33.508,52.921,14.095,1.129,0.187,12.275,93.998,179.315,8.681 +2026-05-21 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"resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "winter", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 2, + "target_peak_label": "February", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 1.0232270907091443, + "target_trough_value": 0.4883750327392263, + "target_mean_value": 0.7581203409781896, + "target_amplitude": 0.534852057969918, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.6450181059441938, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.1141732283464567, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.5984251968503937, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.360093896713615, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.8935750542504153, + "February": 1.0232270907091443, + "March": 0.896201695169356, + "April": 0.7812305784524198, + "May": 0.77011770239967, + "June": 0.7699997387677084, + "July": 0.7542232636890861, + "August": 0.4883750327392263, + "September": 0.5744662563240791, + "October": 0.6489514520238049, + "November": 0.6887934952330353, + "December": 0.8082827319803292 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 1.033, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.13, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.897, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.224, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.381, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.935, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.183, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.11, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.225, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 17.22, + "BASELINE": 0.66, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.254, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.029, + "WINTER_PEAK": 2.07, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.97, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.36, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.895, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.206, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 9.074, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.682, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.536, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 6.237, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.151, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.173, + "SUMMER_LOW": 7.895, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 6.415, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.02, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.065, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 14.336, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 25.775, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 44.337, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.298, + "SCALE": 1.348, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.152, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.162, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 78.144, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 145.342, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.6 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.477 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Crow is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/crow_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/crow_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5a25fb9 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/crow_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.477", + "INITIAL_Y": "1.033", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.13", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.897", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.224", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.381", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.935", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.183", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.11", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.225", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "17.22", + "BASELINE": "0.66", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.254", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.029", + "WINTER_PEAK": "2.07", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.97", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.36", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.895", + 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"late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.7609761387962838, + "target_trough_value": 0.20000803562918706, + "target_mean_value": 0.34079283471359834, + "target_amplitude": 0.5609681031670967, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.26282033010438555, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.055776892430278883, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3107569721115538, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.5664136622390892, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.2790669031943553, + "February": 0.27933038945560984, + "March": 0.3092733217308124, + "April": 0.5796870220128069, + "May": 0.7609761387962838, + "June": 0.44632662916732724, + "July": 0.2822175557153291, + "August": 0.20010541373650922, + "September": 0.20000803562918706, + "October": 0.20958484845817021, + "November": 0.21586915667749368, + "December": 0.32706860198929505 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.202, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.108, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.302, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.968, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.506, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.83, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 7.38, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.079, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.13, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.114, + "BASELINE": 0.2, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.502, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.028, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.76, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 9.88, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.09, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.147, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 11.22, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 12.734, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.24, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.515, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 6.896, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 6.492, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.102, + "SUMMER_LOW": 2.17, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 4.265, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 5.042, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.13, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 16.48, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 22.143, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 33.063, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.028, + "SCALE": 1.072, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.156, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.148, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 82.315, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 154.602, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.024 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.249 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Daisy is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/daisy_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/daisy_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9fa4862 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/daisy_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.249", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.202", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.108", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.302", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.968", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.506", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.83", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "7.38", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.079", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.13", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.114", + "BASELINE": "0.2", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.502", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.028", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.76", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "9.88", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.09", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.147", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "11.22", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "12.734", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "10.24", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "6.515", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "6.896", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "6.492", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.102", + "SUMMER_LOW": "2.17", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "4.265", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "5.042", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.13", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "16.48", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "22.143", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "33.063", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "11.028", + "SCALE": "1.072", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.156", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.148", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "82.315", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "154.602", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "8.024", + "SPECIES": "Daisy" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/daisy_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/daisy_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6630c8e --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/daisy_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,10 +2,21 +3,59 +4,101 +5,103 +6,64 +7,34 +8,24 +9,10 +10,20 +11,19 +12,20 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/daisy_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/daisy_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5717ebd --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/daisy_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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"resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 4, + "target_peak_label": "April", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.5813595581760709, + "target_trough_value": 0.04700187344722388, + "target_mean_value": 0.17122105315475547, + "target_amplitude": 0.5343576847288469, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.08084497681169209, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.04436860068259386, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.25597269624573377, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.6020618556701032, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.08709481169297376, + "February": 0.088699996306469, + "March": 0.17306065184692884, + "April": 0.5813595581760709, + "May": 0.5296556709651279, + "June": 0.15660748894530968, + "July": 0.07949449270923001, + "August": 0.04700187344722388, + "September": 0.047065378637895956, + "October": 0.06463262434817338, + "November": 0.05940930789036488, + "December": 0.14057078289129765 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.058, + "GROWTH_RATE": 1.94, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.108, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.798, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.466, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.015, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.756, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.04, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.075, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.555, + "BASELINE": 0.047, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.586, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.026, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.42, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 9.78, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 9.875, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 6.566, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 11.383, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 13.532, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 12.09, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.428, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 5.649, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.12, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.124, + "SUMMER_LOW": 1.94, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 4.18, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.58, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.21, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 16.496, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 24.048, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 34.624, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.238, + "SCALE": 1.064, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.15, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.206, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 87.912, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 169.682, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 9.723 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.367 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Dandelion is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/dandelion_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/dandelion_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d01a462 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/dandelion_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.367", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.058", + "GROWTH_RATE": "1.94", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.108", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.798", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.466", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.015", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.756", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.04", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.075", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.555", + "BASELINE": "0.047", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.586", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.026", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.42", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "9.78", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "9.875", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 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"model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 3, + "target_peak_label": "March", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.8207638758424917, + "target_trough_value": 0.21065390850126253, + "target_mean_value": 0.43861540264734467, + "target_amplitude": 0.6101099673412291, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.3728234258432724, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.046464646464646465, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.4121212121212121, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.343807763401109, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.3839029367485618, + "February": 0.5301768318107837, + "March": 0.8207638758424917, + "April": 0.7661287283574738, + "May": 0.46898141603003707, + "June": 0.3738835683898542, + "July": 0.34477394612211226, + "August": 0.293460173253657, + "September": 0.21065390850126253, + "October": 0.26979692389142923, + "November": 0.3146912368533844, + "December": 0.48617128596708836 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.887, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.164, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.908, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.706, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.552, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.995, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 8.041, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.062, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.025, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 20.38, + "BASELINE": 0.306, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.495, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.023, + "WINTER_PEAK": 3.4, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.925, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.99, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.64, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 9.161, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 8.118, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.79, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.124, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 5.902, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.32, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.099, + "SUMMER_LOW": 8.76, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 7.42, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.722, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.025, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 13.72, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 29.968, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 50.275, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.374, + "SCALE": 1.207, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.204, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.134, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 84.33, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 161.75, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.602 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.195 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Dunnock is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates strong baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/dunnock_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/dunnock_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..49ed1a3 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/dunnock_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.195", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.887", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.164", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.908", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.706", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.552", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.995", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "8.041", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.062", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.025", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "20.38", + "BASELINE": "0.306", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.495", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.023", + "WINTER_PEAK": "3.4", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.925", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.99", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 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"resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "detectability_peak_timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.6345131388409673, + "target_trough_value": 0.04500878623232617, + "target_mean_value": 0.19006020014144828, + "target_amplitude": 0.5895043526086411, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.0709205172365685, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.04664179104477612, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.2798507462686567, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.6262178919397696, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.09902023455679551, + "February": 0.09961152076355817, + "March": 0.13027072448861368, + "April": 0.362735725168769, + "May": 0.6345131388409673, + "June": 0.41244375578954634, + "July": 0.13162506242647173, + "August": 0.04695606201662694, + "September": 0.04500878623232617, + "October": 0.05592676155416461, + "November": 0.0698874058913968, + "December": 0.19272322396814306 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.09, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.258, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.672, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.096, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.41, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.07, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.622, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.054, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.025, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 18.612, + "BASELINE": 0.045, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.536, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.025, + "WINTER_PEAK": 5.035, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.9, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 9.935, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 8.308, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.086, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 9.512, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.316, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.231, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 6.576, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 6.386, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.118, + "SUMMER_LOW": 1.76, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 4.46, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.152, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.23, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.472, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 19.501, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 26.952, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.069, + "SCALE": 1.152, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.15, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.104, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 85.376, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 161.104, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.909 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.417 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Germander Speedwell is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..14d67d5 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.417", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.09", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.258", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.672", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.096", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.41", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.07", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.622", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.054", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.025", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "18.612", + "BASELINE": "0.045", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.536", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.025", + "WINTER_PEAK": "5.035", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.9", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "9.935", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "8.308", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "10.086", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "9.512", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "8.316", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.231", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "6.576", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "6.386", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.118", + "SUMMER_LOW": "1.76", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "4.46", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.152", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.23", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "15.472", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "19.501", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "26.952", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "9.069", + "SCALE": "1.152", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.15", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.104", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "85.376", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "161.104", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "10.909", + "SPECIES": "Germander Speedwell" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bd8ba35 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,2 +3,2 +4,8 +5,18 +6,8 +7,1 +8,0 +9,0 +10,0 +11,1 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e5dcb46 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..11d0fd1 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6d3de20 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/germander_speedwell_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,0.09503565,2.254011356565009 +2,2,0.10139400999999999,2.4048159825041027 +3,2,0.15480290000000002,3.6715432012007856 +4,8,0.3835778,9.097519902544168 +5,18,0.5685693,13.485062281304096 +6,8,0.3971308,9.418963654604848 +7,1,0.13093878,3.105545099494424 +8,0,0.04954762,1.1751474122686334 +9,0,0.04544516,1.0778471735702746 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"detectability_peak_timing": "winter", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "strong", + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 2, + "target_peak_label": "February", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.9108846955275566, + "target_trough_value": 0.17311505765234897, + "target_mean_value": 0.5558225761604985, + "target_amplitude": 0.7377696378752077, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.36777432055324877, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.10894941634241245, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.669260700389105, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 0.9342492639842983, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.7803719680209059, + "February": 0.9108846955275566, + "March": 0.796778465231346, + "April": 0.6723362655673576, + "May": 0.6553263140204123, + "June": 0.6550003660110784, + "July": 0.6259200503283917, + "August": 0.3199066535628957, + "September": 0.17311505765234897, + "October": 0.25040835834807035, + "November": 0.3384349591360881, + "December": 0.4913877605195299 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 1.052, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.038, + "DECAY_RATE": 1.904, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.236, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.486, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.17, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 9.978, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.32, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.13, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 17.716, + "BASELINE": 0.335, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.257, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.028, + "WINTER_PEAK": 2.085, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.945, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 11.01, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 5.828, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 9.282, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 8.782, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.266, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.82, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 8.72, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.902, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.162, + "SUMMER_LOW": 9.015, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 7.29, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.968, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.065, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 13.058, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 19.861, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 32.808, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.654, + "SCALE": 1.264, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.172, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.168, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 87.811, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 164.334, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.894 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.35 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Goldfinch is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/goldfinch_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/goldfinch_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6b87633 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/goldfinch_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.35", + "INITIAL_Y": "1.052", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.038", + "DECAY_RATE": "1.904", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.236", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.486", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.17", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "9.978", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.32", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.13", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "17.716", + "BASELINE": "0.335", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.257", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.028", + "WINTER_PEAK": "2.085", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.945", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "11.01", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 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"detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 4, + "target_peak_label": "April", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.7816639808746313, + "target_trough_value": 0.09331083609206177, + "target_mean_value": 0.37448367728894455, + "target_amplitude": 0.6883531447825695, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.2712162837064409, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.060810810810810814, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3761261261261261, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.6836686944314458, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.3583668965712486, + "February": 0.4159384081328567, + "March": 0.6675438348210644, + "April": 0.7816639808746313, + "May": 0.512982174573322, + "June": 0.3692937277379937, + "July": 0.3142514632493012, + "August": 0.09331083609206177, + "September": 0.17611611628420815, + "October": 0.2102017641294908, + "November": 0.23709934080472178, + "December": 0.35703558419643405 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.792, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.137, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.598, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.674, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.384, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.02, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.124, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 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The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/great_tit_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/great_tit_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bc577da --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/great_tit_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.159", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.792", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.137", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.598", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.674", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.384", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.02", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.124", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.144", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.18", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "15.978", + "BASELINE": "0.212", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.444", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.027", + "WINTER_PEAK": "3.745", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.88", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.64", + 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Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/great_tit_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/great_tit_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/great_tit_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..51f7edc --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/great_tit_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,70,0.5581864,70.74125483956729 +2,69,0.4631776,58.70039943212369 +3,86,0.6597255000000001,83.60972198473657 +4,93,0.7220021,91.50229126113203 +5,75,0.5225073,66.2194959691498 +6,48,0.387338,49.08893546501369 +7,15,0.20002755,25.35031288738724 +8,9,0.10747820999999999,13.621154946287708 +9,12,0.1699774,21.54193396751885 +10,23,0.20734919999999998,26.278215660539928 +11,21,0.2328259,29.5069824796011 +12,28,0.32583599999999996,41.29453442775611 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/great_tit_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/great_tit_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f5762e4 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/great_tit_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..178909b --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Greenfinch", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "minimal", + "year_end_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "minimal_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 4, + "target_peak_label": "April", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.6462342810924729, + "target_trough_value": 0.0, + "target_mean_value": 0.20198254429648033, + "target_amplitude": 0.6462342810924729, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.0541599246960897, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.03756708407871199, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.2504472271914132, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 2.1115751789976134, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.16596442518928473, + "February": 0.22399949025723245, + "March": 0.5863931062878311, + "April": 0.6462342810924729, + "May": 0.27340366791625514, + "June": 0.16896843653136892, + "July": 0.1125556666412539, + "August": 0.0, + "September": 0.0, + "October": 0.024796698449594905, + "November": 0.05559680373508381, + "December": 0.16587795545738593 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.142, + "GROWTH_RATE": 1.676, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.539, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.687, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.398, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.92, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 9.764, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.13, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.02, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 19.58, + "BASELINE": 0.035, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.559, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.021, + "WINTER_PEAK": 3.56, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.98, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.055, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.448, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 11.503, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 13.1, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.264, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.926, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 8.318, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.255, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.1, + "SUMMER_LOW": 8.51, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 6.23, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.848, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.12, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 16.084, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 31.914, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 51.931, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 12.138, + "SCALE": 1.106, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.14, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.122, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 86.695, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 163.925, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 9.023 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.389 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Greenfinch is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates weak baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3ef16f4 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.389", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.142", + "GROWTH_RATE": "1.676", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.539", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.687", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.398", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.92", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "9.764", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.13", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.02", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "19.58", + "BASELINE": "0.035", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.559", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.021", + "WINTER_PEAK": "3.56", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.98", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.055", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.448", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "11.503", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "13.1", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "11.264", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "6.926", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "8.318", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "7.255", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.1", + "SUMMER_LOW": "8.51", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "6.23", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.848", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.12", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "16.084", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "31.914", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "51.931", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "12.138", + "SCALE": "1.106", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.14", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.122", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "86.695", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "163.925", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "9.023", + "SPECIES": "Greenfinch" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c2c25dd --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,7 +2,27 +3,39 +4,29 +5,34 +6,25 +7,10 +8,1 +9,1 +10,2 +11,1 +12,7 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..18ca33f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3bcf49b Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e2397b7 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,7,0.15685670000000002,11.585410290633405 +2,27,0.2484133,18.347765840733633 +3,39,0.5241564999999999,38.714113640044616 +4,29,0.5631306,41.5927343123409 +5,34,0.3069176,22.668883901143573 +6,25,0.1878172,13.87214777333676 +7,10,0.07976652,5.8915421633632175 +8,1,0.0038093985400000003,0.28136155514198546 +9,1,0.0005739948753000001,0.04239516791486407 +10,2,0.023469077999999997,1.7334222750630224 +11,1,0.050176149999999996,3.706002259096138 +12,7,0.123121,9.093696988353544 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2eea7b6 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greenfinch_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a8f1565 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Grey Heron", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 4, + "target_peak_label": "April", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.8011671374071747, + "target_trough_value": 0.15733223197625978, + "target_mean_value": 0.44250863140775165, + "target_amplitude": 0.6438349054309149, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.3944245654192382, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.07446808510638298, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3617021276595745, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.3318505338078293, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.43137308321306045, + "February": 0.4494463546925749, + "March": 0.5942189655048495, + "April": 0.8011671374071747, + "May": 0.6703585568204801, + "June": 0.47110212102530874, + "July": 0.39115641929170963, + "August": 0.15733223197625978, + "September": 0.2589597739944958, + "October": 0.3189252163476102, + "November": 0.33729484980567004, + "December": 0.42876886681382603 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.866, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.248, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.994, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.076, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.589, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.065, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 9.91, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.115, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.105, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.98, + "BASELINE": 0.316, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.376, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.028, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.16, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.195, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.12, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 8.75, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 9.04, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 8.908, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.263, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.977, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 6.647, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 6.066, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.164, + "SUMMER_LOW": 7.785, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 6.195, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.202, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.145, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 14.202, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 27.423, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 43.836, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.26, + "SCALE": 1.308, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.136, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.142, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 97.004, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 180.832, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 11.088 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.206 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Grey Heron is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b7e28bc --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.206", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.866", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.248", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.994", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.076", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.589", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.065", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "9.91", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.115", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.105", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.98", + "BASELINE": "0.316", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.376", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.028", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.16", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.195", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.12", + 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+1,10 +2,5 +3,10 +4,11 +5,9 +6,7 +7,3 +8,2 +9,3 +10,5 +11,5 +12,2 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4e815e3 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..074b55e --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,10,0.6979771,9.172221911197079 +2,5,0.5325077,6.9977636713599365 +3,10,0.6203219,8.151743263748056 +4,11,0.7610306,10.000817425688407 +5,9,0.6876501,9.036513253023434 +6,7,0.5400482999999999,7.096855828600584 +7,3,0.3066892,4.030248843647597 +8,2,0.1767163,2.3222554420849573 +9,3,0.25530970000000003,3.355063116656912 +10,5,0.3169243,4.164749830117344 +11,5,0.3347784,4.399373240003863 +12,2,0.405023,5.32246807973897 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7a5ed3d Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/grey_heron_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..917fc68 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Greylag Goose", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 4, + "target_peak_label": "April", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.8454492433812375, + "target_trough_value": 0.1518011301051305, + "target_mean_value": 0.3781718655054268, + "target_amplitude": 0.693648113276107, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.2957007791504614, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.050966608084358524, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3409490333919156, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4959546925566343, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.30421298468412555, + "February": 0.31930573535796963, + "March": 0.4960077677879524, + "April": 0.8454492433812375, + "May": 0.6774407313389537, + "June": 0.35286261078660697, + "July": 0.3034442966777619, + "August": 0.24899289266141714, + "September": 0.1518011301051305, + "October": 0.1583647876677532, + "November": 0.251005205679679, + "December": 0.4291749999365341 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.386, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.472, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.698, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.037, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.407, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.12, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.087, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.054, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.275, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 13.147, + "BASELINE": 0.25, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.569, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.029, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.275, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.72, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.8, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 6.285, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.064, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 9.567, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.619, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.726, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 5.16, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.256, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.124, + "SUMMER_LOW": 9.29, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 7.585, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.088, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.055, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 12.868, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 25.072, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 39.901, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.653, + "SCALE": 1.048, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.194, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.114, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 81.78, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 155.184, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.944 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.184 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Greylag Goose is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fb69e23 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.184", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.386", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.472", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.698", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.037", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.407", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.12", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.087", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.054", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.275", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "13.147", + "BASELINE": "0.25", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.569", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.029", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.275", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.72", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.8", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "6.285", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "10.064", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "9.567", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "11.619", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "6.726", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "5.16", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "8.256", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.124", + "SUMMER_LOW": "9.29", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "7.585", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.088", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.055", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "12.868", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "25.072", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "39.901", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "8.653", + "SCALE": "1.048", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.194", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.114", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "81.78", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "155.184", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "8.944", + "SPECIES": "Greylag Goose" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9d57937 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,14 +2,10 +3,23 +4,36 +5,25 +6,10 +7,8 +8,10 +9,4 +10,4 +11,8 +12,5 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5ed0d5c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ec9eae8 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/greylag_goose_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7913e84 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Herring Gull", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "winter", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 2, + "target_peak_label": "February", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.8445355871214842, + "target_trough_value": 0.25236730326837964, + "target_mean_value": 0.5130236659284254, + "target_amplitude": 0.5921682838531045, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.46416042849786016, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.0676056338028169, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.6816901408450704, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 0.7728026533996684, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.6188440326476626, + "February": 0.8445355871214842, + "March": 0.7152420598134012, + "April": 0.524142635214259, + "May": 0.5041981526208165, + "June": 0.504000070928414, + "July": 0.48560338632925654, + "August": 0.3820528029209812, + "September": 0.25236730326837964, + "October": 0.316539395299995, + "November": 0.39886661249638494, + "December": 0.6098919524800703 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.996, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.412, + "DECAY_RATE": 1.864, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.397, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.399, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.1, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 7.232, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.112, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.095, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 17.126, + "BASELINE": 0.392, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.355, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.024, + "WINTER_PEAK": 2.24, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 11.11, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.845, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 6.513, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 11.098, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 10.53, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 13.026, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.599, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.26, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.61, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.14, + "SUMMER_LOW": 9.005, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 7.23, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 3.37, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.07, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 12.656, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 20.574, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 36.727, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.993, + "SCALE": 1.246, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.242, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.145, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 78.685, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 147.492, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.476 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.347 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Herring Gull is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates strong baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4309432 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.347", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.996", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.412", + "DECAY_RATE": "1.864", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.397", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.399", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.1", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "7.232", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.112", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.095", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "17.126", + "BASELINE": "0.392", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.355", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.024", + "WINTER_PEAK": "2.24", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "11.11", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.845", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "6.513", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "11.098", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "10.53", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "13.026", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.599", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "7.26", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "8.61", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.14", + "SUMMER_LOW": "9.005", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "7.23", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "3.37", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.07", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "12.656", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "20.574", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "36.727", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "8.993", + "SCALE": "1.246", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.242", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.145", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "78.685", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "147.492", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "8.476", + "SPECIES": "Herring Gull" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..97664bb --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,104 +2,68 +3,86 +4,76 +5,60 +6,58 +7,68 +8,51 +9,28 +10,43 +11,71 +12,86 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..97c415f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ 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0000000..d743af4 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..362c28d --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,104,0.8888611,105.01358954578728 +2,68,0.8418675999999999,99.4615903410522 +3,86,0.7487094,88.45550966362762 +4,76,0.605105,71.48951405579975 +5,60,0.5376551,63.520714303505045 +6,58,0.5149177,60.83442733365297 +7,68,0.46123390000000003,54.492009448048414 +8,51,0.35864440000000003,42.3716774358729 +9,28,0.2651735,31.32865313536595 +10,43,0.322299,38.07768716283984 +11,71,0.3969884,46.90179027076202 +12,86,0.5776897,68.25056135388195 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..310e619 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/herring_gull_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4687092 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "House Sparrow", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "strong", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 10, + "target_trough_label": "October", + "target_peak_value": 1.0849149623069607, + "target_trough_value": 0.24522183536516706, + "target_mean_value": 0.6149644338983231, + "target_amplitude": 0.8396931269417937, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.35763171629134666, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.05134474327628362, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3276283618581907, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.274323335771763, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.6860219428975276, + "February": 0.6873124351632354, + "March": 0.730244463948236, + "April": 0.9547377688094566, + "May": 1.0849149623069607, + "June": 0.8620917243617664, + "July": 0.5462290542194506, + "August": 0.3885124554671588, + "September": 0.3853847375339286, + "October": 0.24522183536516706, + "November": 0.30579843114365557, + "December": 0.5031033955633336 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.759, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.734, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.484, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.741, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.524, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.11, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 8.558, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.298, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 6.99, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.872, + "BASELINE": 0.388, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.409, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.021, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.79, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.855, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 11.355, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 8.004, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 9.438, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 9.748, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.256, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.529, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.472, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 6.068, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.148, + "SUMMER_LOW": 10.105, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 8.255, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.784, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.015, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.738, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 29.904, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 47.214, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.362, + "SCALE": 1.144, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.134, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.121, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 86.766, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 166.07, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.69 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.167 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "House Sparrow is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around October. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1f1dc73 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.167", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.759", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.734", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.484", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.741", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.524", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.11", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "8.558", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.298", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "6.99", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.872", + "BASELINE": "0.388", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.409", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.021", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.79", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.855", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "11.355", + 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0000000..f3a84be Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..419a66f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,98,0.7247186,101.68747714265773 +2,87,0.6977739,97.9067841048831 +3,108,0.7619952,106.91787058151247 +4,130,0.9707941999999999,136.21509510412 +5,147,1.0448242,146.60247019408038 +6,126,0.8874620999999999,124.52251399194807 +7,89,0.5430393,76.19550044157118 +8,67,0.3941874,55.30963635737193 +9,57,0.3578844,50.21585170397693 +10,49,0.2544938,35.70880127879719 +11,51,0.3231674,45.344603547848955 +12,55,0.47373560000000003,66.47128691972753 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1753ba9 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/house_sparrow_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jackdaw_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jackdaw_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..97224af --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jackdaw_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Jackdaw", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "strong", + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 1.0855606069296941, + "target_trough_value": 0.3794364203481232, + "target_mean_value": 0.7203418580614599, + "target_amplitude": 0.7061241865815708, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.507571844890725, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.09491525423728814, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.535593220338983, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4302874302874302, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.80002742601049, + "February": 0.8000489417626719, + "March": 0.806463974124809, + "April": 0.8984243632003523, + "May": 1.0855606069296941, + "June": 0.9729038410845438, + "July": 0.6137805534765457, + "August": 0.3794364203481232, + "September": 0.4718410843872588, + "October": 0.5433715199551731, + "November": 0.5768452708148974, + "December": 0.695398294642959 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.951, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.331, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.334, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.832, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.468, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.905, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.428, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.249, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 6.93, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 17.086, + "BASELINE": 0.551, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.295, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.028, + "WINTER_PEAK": 5.21, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.89, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.66, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.752, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 11.016, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 10.754, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 12.4, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.472, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 6.728, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.124, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.172, + "SUMMER_LOW": 7.96, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 6.285, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.835, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.075, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.954, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 26.527, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 40.632, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.338, + "SCALE": 1.368, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.158, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.13, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 89.4, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 165.468, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.85 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.435 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Jackdaw is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jackdaw_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jackdaw_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..676abaf --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jackdaw_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.435", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.951", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.331", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.334", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.832", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.468", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.905", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.428", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.249", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "6.93", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "17.086", + "BASELINE": "0.551", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.295", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.028", + "WINTER_PEAK": "5.21", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.89", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.66", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 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+7,62 +8,56 +9,68 +10,77 +11,101 +12,89 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jackdaw_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jackdaw_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b92c4db --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jackdaw_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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"detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "meaningful", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "autumn_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "meaningful_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 10, + "target_peak_label": "October", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.24747398820984062, + "target_trough_value": 0.0, + "target_mean_value": 0.10859575234282763, + "target_amplitude": 0.24747398820984062, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.14546983406383107, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.1308411214953271, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.7383177570093458, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.329608938547486, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.10211848249782211, + "February": 0.10200000104206225, + "March": 0.10200000000000001, + "April": 0.102, + "May": 0.10199999999999944, + "June": 0.10199972512552061, + "July": 0.06884233383832522, + "August": 0.0, + "September": 0.046936862805024605, + "October": 0.24747398820984062, + "November": 0.14960198398985217, + "December": 0.17817565060548454 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.964, + "GROWTH_RATE": 1.611, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.142, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 5.203, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.652, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.97, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 9.579, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.066, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.025, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.434, + "BASELINE": 0.036, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.214, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.028, + "WINTER_PEAK": 10.015, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.105, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.225, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 5.652, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 12.324, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 13.943, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 12.457, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.298, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 5.852, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 4.806, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.132, + "SUMMER_LOW": 7.995, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 6.095, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 3.804, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.17, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.33, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 25.27, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 42.635, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.45, + "SCALE": 1.284, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.158, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.146, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 78.982, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 145.46, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.68 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.581 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Jay is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around October and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jay_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jay_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a5f4d56 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jay_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.581", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.964", + "GROWTH_RATE": "1.611", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.142", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "5.203", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.652", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.97", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "9.579", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.066", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.025", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.434", + "BASELINE": "0.036", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.214", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.028", + "WINTER_PEAK": "10.015", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.105", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.225", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "5.652", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "12.324", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "13.943", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "12.457", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.298", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "5.852", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "4.806", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.132", + "SUMMER_LOW": "7.995", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "6.095", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "3.804", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.17", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "15.33", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "25.27", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "42.635", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "9.45", + "SCALE": "1.284", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.158", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.146", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "78.982", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "145.46", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "8.68", + "SPECIES": "Jay" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jay_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jay_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d283a96 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jay_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,9 +2,8 +3,6 +4,7 +5,2 +6,2 +7,2 +8,0 +9,2 +10,10 +11,8 +12,5 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jay_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jay_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5ab79da --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/jay_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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"baseline_presence": "weak", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 3, + "target_peak_label": "March", + "target_trough_month": 5, + "target_trough_label": "May", + "target_peak_value": 0.47068776872668894, + "target_trough_value": 0.0, + "target_mean_value": 0.15154760741292142, + "target_amplitude": 0.47068776872668894, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.09348022813303479, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.06313131313131314, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.4393939393939394, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.3518164435946463, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.1670295603802078, + "February": 0.40623213562271965, + "March": 0.47068776872668894, + "April": 0.27344319708715903, + "May": 0.0, + "June": 0.01347300975656178, + "July": 0.07728834609976509, + "August": 0.043744787645017214, + "September": 0.04403168428690156, + "October": 0.05495030223680121, + "November": 0.06891210576537947, + "December": 0.19877839134785516 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.865, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.092, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.828, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.102, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.496, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.04, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.016, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.053, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.11, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 15.116, + "BASELINE": 0.044, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.396, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.025, + "WINTER_PEAK": 2.62, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 11.085, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 9.87, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 5.719, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 8.103, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 9.346, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 5.85, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.605, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 5.337, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.283, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.158, + "SUMMER_LOW": 5.035, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 4.175, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.039, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.09, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 14.452, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 19.302, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 31.706, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.523, + "SCALE": 1.25, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.174, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.155, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 79.582, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 149.49, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.574 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.319 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Long Tailed Tit is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around May. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7c35765 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.319", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.865", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.092", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.828", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.102", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.496", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.04", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.016", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.053", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.11", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "15.116", + "BASELINE": "0.044", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.396", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.025", + "WINTER_PEAK": "2.62", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "11.085", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "9.87", + 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d30d055 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7db6108 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,18,0.5972571,18.711382062495275 +2,8,0.4539733,14.222464433611231 +3,21,0.4481892,14.041255193925878 +4,5,0.2933166,9.189273711224365 +5,1,0.09091221000000001,2.848175593820155 +6,2,0.0438546,1.3739144763585152 +7,3,0.054212329999999996,1.6984103146334708 +8,1,0.04439241,1.390763448747509 +9,3,0.04461546,1.397751350220827 +10,5,0.05573475,1.7461059925577418 +11,3,0.06934757999999999,2.172580392078145 +12,12,0.17169410000000002,5.3789798446536174 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2c57a82 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/long_tailed_tit_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/magpie_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/magpie_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..571e16a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/magpie_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Magpie", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "winter", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "strong", + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 2, + "target_peak_label": "February", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 1.2467964363947392, + "target_trough_value": 0.528501487533441, + "target_mean_value": 0.8662751790538733, + "target_amplitude": 0.7182949488612982, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.5453977731652019, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.06287425149700598, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.46407185628742514, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.3685051958433254, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 1.130873428724485, + "February": 1.2467964363947392, + "March": 1.1039852316090435, + "April": 0.9343077935437688, + "May": 0.9162034711620163, + "June": 0.9160000755661624, + "July": 0.7746361122664497, + "August": 0.528501487533441, + "September": 0.5852748528416601, + "October": 0.6699984273920512, + "November": 0.7096624369114307, + "December": 0.879062394701232 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.948, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.502, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.424, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.088, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.438, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.015, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 8.662, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.236, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 6.98, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 17.536, + "BASELINE": 0.68, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.334, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.021, + "WINTER_PEAK": 2.175, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 11.01, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.25, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 8.01, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 8.989, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 4.59, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 12.225, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.896, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.629, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 5.65, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.162, + "SUMMER_LOW": 8.15, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 6.6, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.378, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 6.92, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 14.188, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 26.104, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 42.038, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.746, + "SCALE": 1.348, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.155, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.162, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 86.157, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 162.472, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.124 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.45 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Magpie is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/magpie_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/magpie_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a2e6524 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/magpie_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.45", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.948", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.502", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.424", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.088", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.438", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.015", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "8.662", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.236", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "6.98", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "17.536", + "BASELINE": "0.68", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.334", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.021", + "WINTER_PEAK": "2.175", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "11.01", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.25", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "8.01", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "8.989", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "4.59", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "12.225", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "6.896", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "7.629", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "5.65", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.162", + "SUMMER_LOW": "8.15", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "6.6", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.378", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "6.92", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "14.188", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "26.104", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "42.038", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "10.746", + "SCALE": "1.348", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.155", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.162", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "86.157", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "162.472", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "10.124", + "SPECIES": "Magpie" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/magpie_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/magpie_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9d31e56 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/magpie_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,158 +2,133 +3,131 +4,124 +5,122 +6,113 +7,118 +8,102 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"spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.7848787064147251, + "target_trough_value": 0.26132004497130956, + "target_mean_value": 0.45620398110730787, + "target_amplitude": 0.5235586614434156, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.4739585836125837, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.048, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.4106666666666667, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 2.0201660735468563, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.4300334983219825, + "February": 0.43088146044493775, + "March": 0.4677281684385085, + "April": 0.6813342094796644, + "May": 0.7848787064147251, + "June": 0.5338988944208285, + "July": 0.2894760362432284, + "August": 0.26132004497130956, + "September": 0.3423192825498804, + "October": 0.37987702510837046, + "November": 0.3799031887658213, + "December": 0.4927972581284379 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.75, + "GROWTH_RATE": 1.686, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.406, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 2.509, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.468, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.02, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.564, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.058, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 6.975, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 17.462, + "BASELINE": 0.372, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.375, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.018, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.735, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 9.665, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 9.95, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.024, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 11.905, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 10.74, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.449, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.701, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 5.923, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 6.57, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.145, + "SUMMER_LOW": 7.28, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 5.17, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.038, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.205, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.27, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 28.79, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 50.49, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 7.55, + "SCALE": 1.194, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.154, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.148, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 89.252, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 168.94, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.783 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.421 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Mallard is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mallard_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mallard_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..eb8e0a3 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mallard_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.421", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.75", + "GROWTH_RATE": "1.686", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.406", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "2.509", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.468", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.02", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.564", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.058", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "6.975", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "17.462", + "BASELINE": "0.372", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.375", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.018", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.735", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "9.665", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "9.95", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.024", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "11.905", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "10.74", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "11.449", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "6.701", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "5.923", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "6.57", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.145", + "SUMMER_LOW": "7.28", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "5.17", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.038", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.205", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "15.27", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "28.79", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "50.49", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "7.55", + "SCALE": "1.194", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.154", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.148", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "89.252", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "168.94", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "10.783", + "SPECIES": "Mallard" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mallard_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mallard_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..40ad262 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mallard_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,17 +2,17 +3,21 +4,20 +5,23 +6,11 +7,6 +8,9 +9,6 +10,16 +11,12 +12,11 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mallard_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mallard_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..87f8cea --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mallard_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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"detectability_peak_timing": "winter", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 2, + "target_peak_label": "February", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.42389052211390243, + "target_trough_value": 0.0, + "target_mean_value": 0.13845269500030552, + "target_amplitude": 0.42389052211390243, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.08964578828160052, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.08536585365853659, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.47560975609756095, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.0601503759398496, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.25453673606619265, + "February": 0.42389052211390243, + "March": 0.281857972633305, + "April": 0.1288438794701441, + "May": 0.09733460706032249, + "June": 0.09600546446752863, + "July": 0.08367338837368603, + "August": 0.0, + "September": 0.0, + "October": 0.028695759245436808, + "November": 0.06535411266715686, + "December": 0.20123989790599128 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.956, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.128, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.256, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.542, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.652, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.25, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 8.534, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.058, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.175, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 17.308, + "BASELINE": 0.038, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.328, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.028, + "WINTER_PEAK": 1.975, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 11.18, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.205, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 6.834, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 9.936, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 11.04, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 7.793, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 5.667, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 4.683, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 5.872, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.16, + "SUMMER_LOW": 7.925, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 6.35, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.537, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.105, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 12.341, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 26.25, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 46.552, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.12, + "SCALE": 1.39, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.156, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.136, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 86.744, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 161.908, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.806 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.225 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Mistle Thrush is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b274c5a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.225", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.956", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.128", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.256", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.542", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.652", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.25", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "8.534", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.058", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.175", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "17.308", + "BASELINE": "0.038", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.328", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.028", + "WINTER_PEAK": "1.975", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "11.18", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.205", + 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..29852ed Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a47a70f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,28,0.7814705,32.64300915525758 +2,16,0.5705525,23.83269807504583 +3,23,0.4121954,17.217922130080485 +4,26,0.26335349999999996,11.000608099178569 +5,11,0.174078,7.271457780848963 +6,8,0.13152029999999998,5.493768935618457 +7,2,0.056303968999999995,2.351887851869442 +8,0,0.00038533734199999996,0.016096027147241797 +9,0,0.0015704423956,0.06559936107297135 +10,6,0.031147189999999998,1.3010574402111754 +11,6,0.06356149,2.655043664465662 +12,10,0.18009599999999998,7.5228372367546426 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..817eb9b Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mistle_thrush_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..210f72a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Mute Swan", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "winter", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "meaningful", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "meaningful_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 2, + "target_peak_label": "February", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.864830809922633, + "target_trough_value": 0.36530042619975284, + "target_mean_value": 0.5774560907770357, + "target_amplitude": 0.49953038372288017, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.4937381914483355, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.13358778625954199, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.7557251908396947, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.1929046563192904, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.7472873467886398, + "February": 0.864830809922633, + "March": 0.7242050510730234, + "April": 0.6147036808791292, + "May": 0.6031561445528912, + "June": 0.5968176393047385, + "July": 0.45836266845111745, + "August": 0.36530042619975284, + "September": 0.4189337127584466, + "October": 0.4511809551120824, + "November": 0.4613652381412082, + "December": 0.6233294161407664 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 1.049, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.706, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.228, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.576, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.46, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.01, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 8.892, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.176, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.105, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 18.122, + "BASELINE": 0.427, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.262, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.035, + "WINTER_PEAK": 1.97, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.715, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 9.745, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.358, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 9.236, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 9.166, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.472, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.259, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 6.224, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 6.036, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.122, + "SUMMER_LOW": 6.955, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 5.07, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.004, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.06, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 12.592, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 28.826, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 46.832, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.994, + "SCALE": 1.241, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.198, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.15, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 78.218, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 144.166, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 9.235 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.259 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Mute Swan is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b628014 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.259", + "INITIAL_Y": "1.049", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.706", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.228", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.576", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.46", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.01", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "8.892", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.176", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.105", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "18.122", + "BASELINE": "0.427", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.262", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.035", + "WINTER_PEAK": "1.97", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.715", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "9.745", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.358", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "9.236", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "9.166", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "10.472", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.259", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "6.224", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "6.036", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.122", + "SUMMER_LOW": "6.955", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "5.07", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.004", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.06", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "12.592", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "28.826", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "46.832", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "8.994", + "SCALE": "1.241", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.198", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.15", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "78.218", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "144.166", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "9.235", + "SPECIES": "Mute Swan" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dc009b2 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,18 +2,14 +3,10 +4,9 +5,7 +6,8 +7,6 +8,7 +9,6 +10,10 +11,11 +12,9 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1c85baf --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ed35640 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,18,0.9310122,15.11075811923792 +2,14,0.8544,13.86730671958636 +3,10,0.7394969,12.002376323131182 +4,9,0.6397995,10.384241462474241 +5,7,0.6097731,9.896899118741812 +6,8,0.5813965,9.436333791191467 +7,6,0.3867275,6.276765987124103 +8,7,0.373182,6.05691626431259 +9,6,0.41765100000000005,6.77866867830286 +10,10,0.4496741,7.298418385479809 +11,11,0.4647101,7.542459611879271 +12,9,0.6125181000000001,9.941451736889361 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8faf480 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/mute_swan_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..193bbdc --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Nettle", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "detectability_peak_timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.9523846742169517, + "target_trough_value": 0.28619358192466765, + "target_mean_value": 0.49486562136948054, + "target_amplitude": 0.666191092292284, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.29609884286710064, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.05, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3730769230769231, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.6388174807197944, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.45402642155069334, + "February": 0.4546337186309928, + "March": 0.48001640960213815, + "April": 0.6643236435973341, + "May": 0.9523846742169517, + "June": 0.8362115899930532, + "July": 0.4951066624434455, + "August": 0.28629821029966007, + "September": 0.28619358192466765, + "October": 0.30796920332770933, + "November": 0.29706409898466724, + "December": 0.42415924186245346 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.197, + "GROWTH_RATE": 1.556, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.55, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.045, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.408, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.1, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.355, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.172, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.065, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.385, + "BASELINE": 0.282, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.52, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.026, + "WINTER_PEAK": 5.28, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 9.965, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 9.125, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 8.539, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 8.296, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 7.883, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.613, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.872, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.249, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.342, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.1, + "SUMMER_LOW": 1.85, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 4.26, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 5.286, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.085, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 16.831, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 24.241, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 40.196, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.454, + "SCALE": 1.039, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.194, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.162, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 99.08, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 184.284, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.308 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.317 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Nettle is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..25c5e3a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.317", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.197", + "GROWTH_RATE": "1.556", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.55", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.045", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.408", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.1", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.355", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.172", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.065", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.385", + "BASELINE": "0.282", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.52", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.026", + "WINTER_PEAK": "5.28", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "9.965", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "9.125", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "8.539", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "8.296", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "7.883", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "8.613", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.872", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "7.249", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "7.342", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.1", + "SUMMER_LOW": "1.85", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "4.26", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "5.286", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.085", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "16.831", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "24.241", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "40.196", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "10.454", + "SCALE": "1.039", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.194", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.162", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "99.08", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "184.284", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "10.308", + "SPECIES": "Nettle" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8fedfd4 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,8 +2,10 +3,24 +4,67 +5,74 +6,57 +7,42 +8,36 +9,20 +10,29 +11,20 +12,25 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d7b2685 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/nettle_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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"detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 4, + "target_peak_label": "April", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.9416565633560556, + "target_trough_value": 0.17862429918860445, + "target_mean_value": 0.4213717695284509, + "target_amplitude": 0.7630322641674512, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.27186132392856505, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.04332129963898917, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.33935018050541516, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.9923076923076923, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.3891571271376412, + "February": 0.4065828848946221, + "March": 0.6413419683172408, + "April": 0.9416565633560556, + "May": 0.6131391125995524, + "June": 0.40461260274212485, + "July": 0.30533026640187855, + "August": 0.17862429918860445, + "September": 0.22795835923042812, + "October": 0.2538033153446911, + "November": 0.27229065819280523, + "December": 0.4219640769357664 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.18, + "GROWTH_RATE": 1.82, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.626, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.168, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.42, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.23, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 11.15, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.133, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.025, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 16.04, + "BASELINE": 0.256, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.554, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.024, + "WINTER_PEAK": 3.945, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.05, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.585, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 6.982, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 11.067, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 12.716, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.71, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.402, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.908, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 5.302, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.083, + "SUMMER_LOW": 7.66, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 6.39, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 3.972, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.185, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.375, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 20.768, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 30.594, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.634, + "SCALE": 1.076, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.188, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.121, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 84.574, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 158.728, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 9.546 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.194 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Pheasant is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pheasant_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pheasant_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5b66576 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pheasant_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.194", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.18", + "GROWTH_RATE": "1.82", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.626", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.168", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.42", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.23", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "11.15", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.133", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.025", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.04", + "BASELINE": "0.256", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.554", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.024", + "WINTER_PEAK": "3.945", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.05", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.585", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 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+7,6 +8,3 +9,5 +10,13 +11,10 +12,7 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pheasant_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pheasant_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6b75050 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pheasant_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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"baseline_presence": "moderate", + "detectability_peak_timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.6489092276190818, + "target_trough_value": 0.08711531496572479, + "target_mean_value": 0.31229921259198684, + "target_amplitude": 0.561793912653357, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.32824313622649515, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.05603448275862069, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.39870689655172414, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.5668789808917198, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.25502884227876366, + "February": 0.2581827990638888, + "March": 0.33696528323034225, + "April": 0.6328073708428182, + "May": 0.6489092276190818, + "June": 0.34297126803556494, + "July": 0.250017201392909, + "August": 0.08711531496572479, + "September": 0.12637036673415464, + "October": 0.20133458946664998, + "November": 0.23621712556422395, + "December": 0.37167116190972005 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.917, + "GROWTH_RATE": 1.884, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.952, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.564, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.539, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.87, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 9.38, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.042, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.14, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 17.158, + "BASELINE": 0.213, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.464, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.026, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.535, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.575, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.245, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 6.37, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.335, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 10.441, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.023, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.018, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.962, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 6.558, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.134, + "SUMMER_LOW": 8.16, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 5.89, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.888, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.165, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.358, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 21.244, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 35.528, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.946, + "SCALE": 1.4, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.185, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.134, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 95.438, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 178.752, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 11.356 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.396 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Pied Wagtail is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pied_wagtail_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pied_wagtail_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..91fb46f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pied_wagtail_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.396", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.917", + "GROWTH_RATE": "1.884", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.952", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.564", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.539", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.87", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "9.38", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.042", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.14", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "17.158", + "BASELINE": "0.213", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.464", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.026", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.535", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.575", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.245", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "6.37", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "10.335", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "10.441", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "11.023", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.018", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "7.962", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "6.558", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.134", + "SUMMER_LOW": "8.16", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "5.89", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.888", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.165", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "15.358", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "21.244", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "35.528", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "8.946", + "SCALE": "1.4", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.185", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.134", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "95.438", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "178.752", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "11.356", + "SPECIES": "Pied Wagtail" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pied_wagtail_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pied_wagtail_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..725d687 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pied_wagtail_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pied_wagtail_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..39238cf Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/pied_wagtail_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cfb252b --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Red Kite", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_spring_persistence_and_summer_suppression", + "baseline_presence": "strong", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "meaningful", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "meaningful_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 3, + "target_peak_label": "March", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 1.0074157267725683, + "target_trough_value": 0.4062821797522262, + "target_mean_value": 0.7405183265563009, + "target_amplitude": 0.6011335470203422, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.5876422059605672, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.13592233009708737, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.9466019417475728, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.541724296911019, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.8214395025283195, + "February": 0.922787408067599, + "March": 1.0074157267725683, + "April": 0.8971379469654726, + "May": 0.8120719678650505, + "June": 0.8021635741366454, + "July": 0.7878646327678699, + "August": 0.4062821797522262, + "September": 0.5041671156189299, + "October": 0.5835060958044874, + "November": 0.6179032767734312, + "December": 0.7234804916230109 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 1.003, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.169, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.344, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.088, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.545, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.05, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.364, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.21, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.245, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 15.318, + "BASELINE": 0.592, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.206, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.028, + "WINTER_PEAK": 2.935, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.78, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.585, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.288, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.11, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 8.82, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.808, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.861, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.814, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.742, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.186, + "SUMMER_LOW": 7.98, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 6.555, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.641, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.18, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 16.595, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 26.718, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 43.176, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.396, + "SCALE": 1.33, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.195, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.208, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 90.306, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 168.367, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 8.389 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.481 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Red Kite is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e4d6baf --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.481", + "INITIAL_Y": "1.003", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.169", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.344", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.088", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.545", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.05", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.364", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.21", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.245", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "15.318", + "BASELINE": "0.592", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.206", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.028", + "WINTER_PEAK": "2.935", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.78", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.585", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.288", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "10.11", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "8.82", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "9.808", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.861", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "7.814", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "7.742", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.186", + "SUMMER_LOW": "7.98", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "6.555", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.641", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.18", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "16.595", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "26.718", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "43.176", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "10.396", + "SCALE": "1.33", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.195", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.208", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "90.306", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "168.367", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "8.389", + "SPECIES": "Red Kite" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a0f1362 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,145 +2,131 +3,147 +4,142 +5,138 +6,119 +7,132 +8,97 +9,105 +10,112 +11,128 +12,127 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..430c748 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/red_kite_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH 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"moderate", + "detectability_peak_timing": "winter", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 2, + "target_peak_label": "February", + "target_trough_month": 7, + "target_trough_label": "July", + "target_peak_value": 0.6573681626798243, + "target_trough_value": 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The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around July. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/robin_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/robin_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e6a6546 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/robin_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.288", + "INITIAL_Y": "1.002", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.326", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.145", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.998", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.553", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "8.601", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.058", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.085", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "16.108", + "BASELINE": "0.264", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.338", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.021", + "WINTER_PEAK": "1.875", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.79", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "9.685", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.41", + 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+11,50,0.2931106,55.94366394487974 +12,85,0.4748795,90.63643267187375 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/robin_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/robin_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..94bf6d0 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/robin_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/rook_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/rook_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b72e96c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/rook_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Rook", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 4, + "target_peak_label": "April", + "target_trough_month": 7, + "target_trough_label": "July", + "target_peak_value": 0.6544130305529264, + "target_trough_value": 0.0, + "target_mean_value": 0.1652963016372777, + "target_amplitude": 0.6544130305529264, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.07946052045458842, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.050724637681159424, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.26811594202898553, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4050073637702503, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.1041577613333837, + "February": 0.11950833109424067, + "March": 0.326119599334564, + "April": 0.6544130305529264, + "May": 0.3689333722389035, + "June": 0.0070540232835043645, + "July": 0.0, + "August": 0.033580597587291615, + "September": 0.05122662179023644, + "October": 0.06971303733671011, + "November": 0.07982194411505632, + "December": 0.16902730098051527 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.566, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.716, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.816, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.372, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.394, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.925, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 7.858, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.052, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 6.875, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 15.716, + "BASELINE": 0.052, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.552, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.028, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.06, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.88, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 9.62, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.891, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 11.347, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 11.668, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.918, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.188, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.638, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 6.444, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.135, + "SUMMER_LOW": 6.2, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 4.625, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 3.994, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.23, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 14.516, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 26.257, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 44.242, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.63, + "SCALE": 1.13, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.148, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.178, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 94.904, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 175.578, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 9.714 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.295 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Rook is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around July. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/rook_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/rook_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1ef93f4 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/rook_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.295", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.566", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.716", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.816", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.372", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.394", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.925", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "7.858", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.052", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "6.875", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "15.716", + "BASELINE": "0.052", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.552", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.028", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.06", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.88", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "9.62", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.891", + 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"resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "moderate", + "detectability_peak_timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "weak", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "minimal", + "year_end_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "moderate_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "weak_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "minimal_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.7769415933979172, + "target_trough_value": 0.22000029117915312, + "target_mean_value": 0.342655888022306, + "target_amplitude": 0.5569413022187641, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.2831615682175547, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.038461538461538464, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.25274725274725274, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.7541345093715546, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.26202416713248283, + "February": 0.2628615801754669, + "March": 0.3087337510963508, + "April": 0.6134127815364601, + "May": 0.7769415933979172, + "June": 0.39861442149135673, + "July": 0.2509616036428726, + "August": 0.2200152497838311, + "September": 0.22000029117915312, + "October": 0.2230723387178499, + "November": 0.2407435281452313, + "December": 0.33448934996869933 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.226, + "GROWTH_RATE": 1.814, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.182, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.073, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.363, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.965, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 8.754, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.042, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.03, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 15.445, + "BASELINE": 0.22, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.546, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.021, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.74, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.86, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.165, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 8.192, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 12.293, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 11.38, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 12.499, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.341, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 6.655, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.35, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.13, + "SUMMER_LOW": 2.09, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 4.16, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.366, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.08, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 14.378, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 19.018, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 28.742, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.272, + "SCALE": 1.09, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.138, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.152, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 90.766, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 174.83, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 11.397 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.316 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Shepherds Purse is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8fcfce9 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.316", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.226", + "GROWTH_RATE": "1.814", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.182", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.073", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.363", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.965", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "8.754", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.042", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.03", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "15.445", + "BASELINE": "0.22", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.546", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.021", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.74", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.86", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.165", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "8.192", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "12.293", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "11.38", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "12.499", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "7.341", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "6.655", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "8.35", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.13", + "SUMMER_LOW": "2.09", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "4.16", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.366", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.08", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "14.378", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "19.018", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "28.742", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "9.272", + "SCALE": "1.09", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.138", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.152", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "90.766", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "174.83", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "11.397", + "SPECIES": "Shepherds Purse" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..56e154a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,1 +2,1 +3,6 +4,13 +5,17 +6,7 +7,2 +8,1 +9,1 +10,4 +11,7 +12,5 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c5acd34 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..78da3ae Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0680aba --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,1,0.243863,4.538165090783266 +2,1,0.2626233,4.887284631478743 +3,6,0.33300260000000004,6.197007231355571 +4,13,0.5875381,10.933782061752407 +5,17,0.6825495,12.701895382372777 +6,7,0.4323937,8.046624517924458 +7,2,0.2585213,4.810948519799674 +8,1,0.2217758,4.12713365102755 +9,1,0.22011889999999998,4.096299593630901 +10,4,0.22699799999999998,4.224316108953058 +11,7,0.2384384,4.4372160728860734 +12,5,0.3046859,5.670047998400253 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6a1f802 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/shepherds_purse_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9c11442 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Skylark", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "detectability_peak_timing": "late_spring_early_summer", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "late_spring_early_summer_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 5, + "target_peak_label": "May", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.726172183778877, + "target_trough_value": 0.04900300516264195, + "target_mean_value": 0.2406220517571283, + "target_amplitude": 0.6771691786162352, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.06747710955411745, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.052830188679245285, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.32452830188679244, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.6775032509752925, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.22101930674541034, + "February": 0.22118146706616718, + "March": 0.2473611513124377, + "April": 0.5387042667452578, + "May": 0.726172183778877, + "June": 0.4121005909587201, + "July": 0.10859642984674153, + "August": 0.04926933651983778, + "September": 0.04900300516264195, + "October": 0.053538354007424946, + "November": 0.06841234058998162, + "December": 0.19210618835204163 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.118, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.307, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.87, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.264, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.47, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.975, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 10.571, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.172, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 6.925, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 15.224, + "BASELINE": 0.049, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.53, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.028, + "WINTER_PEAK": 4.72, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.175, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.235, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 6.917, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 11.493, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 14.252, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.912, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.73, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 6.897, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.684, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.126, + "SUMMER_LOW": 1.88, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 4.285, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.215, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.155, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 18.226, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 23.698, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 39.219, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.265, + "SCALE": 1.079, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.172, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.134, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 92.416, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 175.438, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.08 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.517 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Skylark is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4ab6404 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.517", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.118", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.307", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.87", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.264", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.47", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.975", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "10.571", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.172", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "6.925", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "15.224", + "BASELINE": "0.049", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.53", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.028", + "WINTER_PEAK": "4.72", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.175", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.235", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 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+7,8 +8,1 +9,0 +10,5 +11,2 +12,1 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ec295c2 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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+6,28,0.4278149,23.172157144210736 +7,8,0.1265396,6.85388820297182 +8,1,0.051130869999999995,2.7694513551543207 +9,0,0.0491696,2.663221168589463 +10,5,0.05888824,3.1896213788392984 +11,2,0.06731996,3.646316881581219 +12,1,0.16040658000000002,8.688258587359654 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4f7653e Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/skylark_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ecb7eaf --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Song Thrush", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "autumn", + "spring_carryover": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "moderate_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 3, + "target_peak_label": "March", + "target_trough_month": 9, + "target_trough_label": "September", + "target_peak_value": 0.7190289491373724, + "target_trough_value": 0.0, + "target_mean_value": 0.22259139258049532, + "target_amplitude": 0.7190289491373724, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.07371052314873378, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.049523809523809526, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.3295238095238095, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 2.068205666316894, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.2062920580142298, + "February": 0.3810273166610272, + "March": 0.7190289491373724, + "April": 0.4783577911044195, + "May": 0.22854743717546538, + "June": 0.19750631503379687, + "July": 0.14652008139798656, + "August": 0.04825982543349456, + "September": 0.0, + "October": 0.0009465058999684891, + "November": 0.056255710220360175, + "December": 0.2083547208878229 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.55, + "GROWTH_RATE": 1.906, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.942, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 5.001, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.408, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.97, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 9.769, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.144, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.045, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 13.702, + "BASELINE": 0.053, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.525, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.026, + "WINTER_PEAK": 3.08, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.985, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 11.035, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.702, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 11.898, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 12.937, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.648, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 7.171, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.422, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 7.294, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.094, + "SUMMER_LOW": 9.005, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 7.43, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.14, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.0, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 14.785, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 24.964, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 41.361, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 8.609, + "SCALE": 1.098, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.173, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.142, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 82.164, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 152.424, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 10.38 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.239 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Song Thrush is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around March and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..40161ae --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.239", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.55", + "GROWTH_RATE": "1.906", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.942", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "5.001", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.408", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.97", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "9.769", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.144", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.045", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "13.702", + "BASELINE": "0.053", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.525", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.026", + "WINTER_PEAK": "3.08", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.985", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "11.035", + 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..279bc26 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bc978a9 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/song_thrush_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,36,0.3749308,43.444457634018406 +2,50,0.4238385,49.111552736974154 +3,63,0.628692,72.8485975514583 +4,53,0.4574642,53.00787253535885 +5,48,0.25440999999999997,29.479318494694542 +6,39,0.20327199999999998,23.55379123876243 +7,12,0.10489944,12.155041082013682 +8,3,0.028482570000000002,3.300368509796911 +9,2,9.108077850000001e-05,0.010553827593829754 +10,4,0.01082169359,1.253945017851517 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"autumn", + "spring_carryover": "strong", + "summer_suppression": "strong", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "strong", + "pre_summer_retention": "strong", + "autumn_component": "weak", + "year_end_component": "meaningful", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "strong_baseline_presence", + "winter_detectability_peak", + "autumn_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "strong_summer_suppression", + "strong_summer_decay_acceleration", + "strong_pre_summer_retention", + "weak_autumn_component", + "meaningful_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "low" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 2, + "target_peak_label": "February", + "target_trough_month": 10, + "target_trough_label": "October", + "target_peak_value": 1.2362391906257129, + "target_trough_value": 0.4839120350470476, + "target_mean_value": 0.8199376823763411, + "target_amplitude": 0.7523271555786653, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.5063744983550917, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.07631578947368421, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.48947368421052634, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.6109537299338998, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 1.0818273004031713, + "February": 1.2362391906257129, + "March": 0.9979242261409191, + "April": 0.8707381185639018, + "May": 0.8620605109815165, + "June": 0.862000012031215, + "July": 0.861499631598903, + "August": 0.6259622270453793, + "September": 0.5492537731893515, + "October": 0.4839120350470476, + "November": 0.5898589374932284, + "December": 0.8179762253957469 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.969, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.118, + "DECAY_RATE": 3.412, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 4.049, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.536, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 6.92, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 8.544, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.236, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.31, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 19.852, + "BASELINE": 0.626, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.38, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.029, + "WINTER_PEAK": 1.86, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.895, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 11.35, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 7.592, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.484, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 10.716, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 11.369, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.813, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 7.444, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 6.438, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.167, + "SUMMER_LOW": 9.495, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 8.23, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 4.702, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.055, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.062, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 24.865, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 44.598, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 9.201, + "SCALE": 1.248, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.186, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.145, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 77.628, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 145.893, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 9.146 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.497 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Woodpigeon is classified as resident with spring persistence and summer suppression. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around October. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, strong summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b95f560 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.497", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.969", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.118", + "DECAY_RATE": "3.412", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "4.049", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.536", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "6.92", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "8.544", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.236", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.31", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "19.852", + "BASELINE": "0.626", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.38", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.029", + "WINTER_PEAK": "1.86", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.895", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "11.35", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "7.592", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "10.484", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "10.716", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "11.369", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "6.813", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "7.444", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "6.438", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.167", + "SUMMER_LOW": "9.495", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "8.23", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "4.702", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.055", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "15.062", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "24.865", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "44.598", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "9.201", + "SCALE": "1.248", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.186", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.145", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "77.628", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "145.893", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "9.146", + "SPECIES": "Woodpigeon" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ced5c94 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,183 +2,152 +3,169 +4,159 +5,166 +6,139 +7,154 +8,138 +9,133 +10,128 +11,150 +12,169 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..720b614 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6295e1c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,183,1.0773593,194.39777068781473 +2,152,1.1798680000000001,212.89435094298685 +3,169,1.0328525000000002,186.36700258617176 +4,159,0.9083888,163.90888131543414 +5,166,0.8717791,157.30305903724926 +6,139,0.8639825999999999,155.89626538988614 +7,154,0.7726259,139.4119422700175 +8,138,0.6282607,113.36281172935155 +9,133,0.5029542,90.75261636305856 +10,128,0.4978431,89.83037394517393 +11,150,0.5913236,106.69791368125108 +12,169,0.789693,142.49151488066468 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a29a043 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/woodpigeon_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6748a80 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "resident-classification/v1", + "species": "Wren", + "model_family": "resident_detectability", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "resident_with_summer_detectability_collapse", + "baseline_presence": "weak", + "detectability_peak_timing": "spring", + "detectability_trough_timing": "summer", + "spring_carryover": "strong", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_decay_acceleration": "moderate", + "pre_summer_retention": "moderate", + "autumn_component": "minimal", + "year_end_component": "weak", + "response_dynamics": "rapid_decline_biased", + "traits": [ + "resident_detectability_pattern", + "weak_baseline_presence", + "spring_detectability_peak", + "summer_detectability_trough", + "strong_spring_carryover", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "moderate_summer_decay_acceleration", + "moderate_pre_summer_retention", + "minimal_autumn_component", + "weak_year_end_component", + "rapid_decline_biased_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "target_peak_month": 4, + "target_peak_label": "April", + "target_trough_month": 8, + "target_trough_label": "August", + "target_peak_value": 0.8375385729882336, + "target_trough_value": 0.0, + "target_mean_value": 0.28277359644625405, + "target_amplitude": 0.8375385729882336, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 0.04895296923903706, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.025830258302583026, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.23616236162361623, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4504901960784313, + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.29615009693304295, + "February": 0.31465319794402963, + "March": 0.5434330352298322, + "April": 0.8375385729882336, + "May": 0.5509815533442022, + "June": 0.3222732197186637, + "July": 0.2834142634162588, + "August": 0.0, + "September": 0.0, + "October": 0.03265105252936425, + "November": 0.05374355068020236, + "December": 0.15844461457121906 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.308, + "GROWTH_RATE": 2.04, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.959, + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": 3.892, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": 0.417, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": 7.185, + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": 8.976, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": 0.255, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": 7.18, + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": 17.378, + "BASELINE": 0.041, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.542, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.014, + "WINTER_PEAK": 3.965, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 10.705, + "AUTUMN_ONSET": 10.425, + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": 5.818, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 10.909, + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": 12.154, + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": 10.144, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 6.993, + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": 4.646, + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": 8.577, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.158, + "SUMMER_LOW": 8.21, + "SUMMER_ONSET": 6.33, + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": 3.716, + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": 7.015, + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": 15.638, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 25.057, + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": 40.736, + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": 12.426, + "SCALE": 1.009, + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": 0.128, + "YEAR_END_PEAK": 12.098, + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": 103.605, + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": 198.472, + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": 9.866 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.208 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Wren is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates weak baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b73fefe --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.208", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.308", + "GROWTH_RATE": "2.04", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.959", + "SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST": "3.892", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION": "0.417", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END": "7.185", + "PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS": "8.976", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT": "0.255", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_END": "7.18", + "SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS": "17.378", + "BASELINE": "0.041", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.542", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.014", + "WINTER_PEAK": "3.965", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "10.705", + "AUTUMN_ONSET": "10.425", + "AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS": "5.818", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "10.909", + "WINTER_RISE_WIDTH": "12.154", + "WINTER_FALL_WIDTH": "10.144", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "6.993", + "AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH": "4.646", + "AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH": "8.577", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.158", + "SUMMER_LOW": "8.21", + "SUMMER_ONSET": "6.33", + "SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS": "3.716", + "SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET": "7.015", + "SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS": "15.638", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "25.057", + "SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH": "40.736", + "SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH": "12.426", + "SCALE": "1.009", + "YEAR_END_WEIGHT": "0.128", + "YEAR_END_PEAK": "12.098", + "YEAR_END_WIDTH": "103.605", + "YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH": "198.472", + "YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH": "9.866", + "SPECIES": "Wren" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c231e0a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,21 +2,31 +3,52 +4,60 +5,60 +6,47 +7,11 +8,1 +9,3 +10,1 +11,12 +12,7 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9689a6f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/resident/wren_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,SCORE,INITIAL_Y,GROWTH_RATE,DECAY_RATE,SUMMER_DECAY_BOOST,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_REDUCTION,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_END,PRE_SUMMER_DECAY_SHARPNESS,SPRING_CARRYOVER_WEIGHT,SPRING_CARRYOVER_END,SPRING_CARRYOVER_SHARPNESS,BASELINE,WINTER_WEIGHT,AUTUMN_WEIGHT,WINTER_PEAK,AUTUMN_PEAK,AUTUMN_ONSET,AUTUMN_GATE_SHARPNESS,WINTER_WIDTH,WINTER_RISE_WIDTH,WINTER_FALL_WIDTH,AUTUMN_WIDTH,AUTUMN_RISE_WIDTH,AUTUMN_FALL_WIDTH,SUMMER_DIP,SUMMER_LOW,SUMMER_ONSET,SUMMER_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_DECAY_ONSET,SUMMER_DECAY_GATE_SHARPNESS,SUMMER_WIDTH,SUMMER_RISE_WIDTH,SUMMER_FALL_WIDTH,SCALE,YEAR_END_WEIGHT,YEAR_END_PEAK,YEAR_END_WIDTH,YEAR_END_RISE_WIDTH,YEAR_END_FALL_WIDTH +2026-05-21 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10:23:28,wren_observed.csv,4.120441722161317941211536950,0.612,3.966,1.331,5.392,0.379,7.62,15.395,0.264,7.46,10.878,0.012,0.17,0.022,4.02,9.86,10.11,6.116,9.878,16.754,3.001,8.960,11.492,6.429,0.114,8.05,5.72,2.83,7.02,23.54,14.917,28.281,1.553,1.719,0.286,12.253,65.854,121.034,10.673 +2026-05-21 10:23:28,wren_observed.csv,0.3783943730607406401626283500,0.352,0.406,3.809,4.289,0.446,7.08,11.095,0.001,6.76,26.964,0.032,0.711,0.015,4.37,10.3,10.23,4.678,5.535,8.507,2.563,7.844,2.948,12.741,0.13,7.08,6.19,1.282,7.53,11.922,13.300,8.267,18.332,1.76,0.074,12.028,57.786,99.747,15.825 +2026-05-21 10:23:28,wren_observed.csv,1.399342418983752918436485130,0.205,3.999,4.17,4.484,0.781,7.32,11.594,0.448,7.29,6.005,0.05,0.208,0.03,3.44,10.52,10.97,4.423,8.488,8.008,8.969,10.314,8.358,12.271,0.003,7.42,5.47,6.336,6.98,11.138,23.282,37.302,9.262,1.618,0.219,12.19,67.272,122.475,12.068 +2026-05-21 10:23:29,wren_observed.csv,1.316865943868533942568162234,0.459,1.812,1.617,5.739,0.671,6.84,12.8,0.011,7.32,9.028,0.003,0.685,0.021,3.6,10.34,9.61,8.958,7.655,0.881,14.429,8.030,11.458,4.603,0.052,7.73,5.83,1.008,6.88,17.889,17.984,31.524,4.444,1.236,0.176,12.122,122.744,232.116,13.371 +2026-05-21 10:23:29,wren_observed.csv,1.430777451642889284395360556,0.413,3.398,2.377,0.073,0.884,6.33,7.896,0.125,7.22,24.491,0.051,0.13,0.016,4.61,10.3,9.53,7.146,18.239,19.266,17.212,1.834,2.118,1.549,0.143,9.33,6.03,5.473,6.94,18.385,9.050,9.309,8.792,1.059,0.157,12.087,97.942,180.722,15.163 +2026-05-21 10:23:29,wren_observed.csv,3.247463818284433082749853982,0.487,3.502,1.878,2.188,0.563,7.23,10.029,0.212,7.03,8.388,0.012,0.174,0.023,4.9,11.04,9.81,7.857,9.246,5.403,13.09,2.512,0.632,4.392,0.088,7.11,6.12,1.008,7.18,23.348,31.846,45.289,18.403,1.54,0.301,12.26,118.788,224.281,13.294 +2026-05-21 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10:23:31,wren_observed.csv,2.358659156233676481776829908,0.204,0.985,0.705,0.028,0.882,7.12,12.355,0.022,6.81,19.788,0.079,0.26,0.008,4.34,11.04,10.46,4.565,15.481,16.896,14.066,8.294,6.075,10.513,0.179,8.63,6.69,4.177,7.48,17.643,27.500,48.886,6.114,1.358,0.321,12.106,76.796,144.156,9.436 +2026-05-21 10:23:31,wren_observed.csv,0.1375993230272065646093974955,0.132,2.675,2.077,0.534,0.363,6.53,7.994,0.444,7.28,16.059,0.032,0.567,0.031,4.32,10.51,10.93,3.501,9.454,16.343,2.565,5.362,4.679,6.044,0.167,8.25,6.23,1.682,7.2,17.255,23.041,33.075,13.007,1.273,0.113,12.205,54.716,93.67,15.762 +2026-05-21 10:23:31,wren_observed.csv,1.730140788973353605076628229,0.567,1.95,3.04,7.646,0.127,6.49,7.327,0.356,6.8,17.317,0.029,0.372,0.03,3.4,10.11,9.7,4.202,1.976,1.755,2.196,10.584,7.245,13.924,0.005,9.41,7.41,7.966,6.7,15.353,22.464,31.139,13.789,1.341,0.071,12.125,46.822,82.247,11.396 +2026-05-21 10:23:32,wren_observed.csv,16.64131001869420962543672131,0.188,1.43,0.263,0.228,0.197,6.31,7.423,0.058,7.01,15.351,0.024,0.735,0.038,4.17,10.84,10.04,8.827,15.284,14.549,16.02,8.022,4.982,11.061,0.241,8.17,5.35,3.473,7.25,19.806,32.384,56.074,8.695,0.896,0.168,12.071,77.547,150.549,4.545 +2026-05-21 10:23:32,wren_observed.csv,0.6199710293716893334981500095,0.483,0.723,3.235,4.068,0.582,6.75,3.292,0.44,7.37,11.679,0.016,0.714,0.042,2.59,11.87,10.4,6.738,8.130,1.67,14.591,3.712,0.825,6.6,0.145,7.62,5.47,5.595,7.55,10.015,11.999,7.213,16.785,1.103,0.256,12.109,108.724,204.223,13.226 +2026-05-21 10:23:32,wren_observed.csv,0.3688505418993940894064645363,0.466,2.729,4.244,6.311,0.763,6.64,14.465,0.242,7.31,23.805,0.033,0.543,0.007,3.1,11.39,11.15,3.605,9.679,6.905,12.453,11.371,9.106,13.636,0.004,6.58,6.78,1.676,7.48,11.414,42.546,68.187,16.906,1.052,0.348,12.265,73.196,134.833,11.56 +2026-05-21 10:23:32,wren_observed.csv,1.016889891371185999725971053,0.266,3.705,5.843,4.912,0.156,6.96,11.914,0.276,6.93,16.024,0.055,0.061,0.011,2.67,9.54,9.78,9.492,12.198,12.039,12.357,10.940,9.103,12.777,0.177,6.54,5.07,5.213,6.93,6.561,19.588,31.726,7.451,1.015,0.082,12.082,50.634,89.154,12.114 +2026-05-21 10:23:33,wren_observed.csv,4.442763117698797658573298793,0.643,1.395,5.221,0.712,0.467,7.54,11.064,0.212,7.39,10.966,0.034,0.431,0.043,4.66,11.49,9.83,6.352,0.740,0.697,0.783,6.818,11.803,1.833,0.125,7.32,5.76,7.342,7.21,6.98,15.257,18.397,12.117,1.775,0.146,12.165,99.381,189.574,9.188 +2026-05-21 10:23:33,wren_observed.csv,2.571810522821496805317187952,0.516,2.266,3.081,5.203,0.062,6.78,8.443,0.144,7.43,23.955,0.069,0.273,0.036,4.89,10.11,11.3,6.947,6.034,5.52,6.548,5.208,0.903,9.512,0.079,8.11,6.9,1.592,6.69,12.343,19.811,19.822,19.8,1.771,0.27,12.169,79.438,152.821,6.054 +2026-05-21 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+ "primary_class": "narrow_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "narrow", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "narrow_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.08, + "season_end_month": 5.55, + "forcing_peak_month": 4.875, + "season_width_months": 1.47, + "season_midpoint_month": 4.815, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "June", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.131, + "DECAY": 1.854, + "OOS_DECAY": 3.898, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 2.877, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.548, + "SEASON_START": 4.08, + "SEASON_END": 5.55, + "SHARPNESS": 8.58, + "FORCING_PEAK": 4.875 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.039 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Bluebell is classified as narrow spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to June, with a spring peak around May. The season is narrow, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/bluebell_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/bluebell_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..784e098 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/bluebell_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.131", + "DECAY": "1.854", + "OOS_DECAY": "3.898", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "2.877", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.548", + "SEASON_START": "4.08", + "SEASON_END": "5.55", + "SHARPNESS": "8.58", + "FORCING_PEAK": "4.875", + "SCORE": "0.039", + "SPECIES": "Bluebell" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/bluebell_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/bluebell_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..090f7f9 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/bluebell_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,19 +5,21 +6,0 +7,0 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/brimstone_butterfly_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Brimstone Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 2.29, + "season_end_month": 9.12, + "forcing_peak_month": 4.145, + "season_width_months": 6.83, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.705, + "season_start_label": "February", + "season_end_label": "September", + "forcing_peak_label": "April" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.959, + "DECAY": 1.864, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.404, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.462, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.051, + "SEASON_START": 2.29, + "SEASON_END": 9.12, + "SHARPNESS": 6.652, + "FORCING_PEAK": 4.145 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.053 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Brimstone Butterfly is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about February to September, with a spring peak around April. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/brimstone_butterfly_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/brimstone_butterfly_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..73a4e97 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/brimstone_butterfly_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.959", + "DECAY": "1.864", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.404", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.462", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.051", + "SEASON_START": "2.29", + "SEASON_END": "9.12", + "SHARPNESS": "6.652", + "FORCING_PEAK": "4.145", + "SCORE": "0.053", + "SPECIES": "Brimstone Butterfly" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/brimstone_butterfly_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/brimstone_butterfly_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a16fcbf --- /dev/null +++ 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+8,0,0.10119797999999999,0.8221941434595376 +9,1,0.0102058118,0.08291824294526673 +10,0,4.4381858e-06,3.605852974876853e-05 +11,0,2.2066358000000002e-08,1.792805579230091e-07 +12,0,1.38706783e-10,1.1269385479899199e-09 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/brimstone_butterfly_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/brimstone_butterfly_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a2fb6fc Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/brimstone_butterfly_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/buttercup_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/buttercup_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b72a2c0 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/buttercup_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Buttercup", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 3.41, + "season_end_month": 10.31, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.41, + "season_width_months": 6.9, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.86, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_label": "October", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.898, + "DECAY": 1.864, + "OOS_DECAY": 3.996, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.78, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.728, + "SEASON_START": 3.41, + "SEASON_END": 10.31, + "SHARPNESS": 6.984, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.41 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.042 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Buttercup is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to October, with a spring peak around May. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/buttercup_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/buttercup_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3cda20b --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/buttercup_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.898", + "DECAY": "1.864", + "OOS_DECAY": "3.996", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.78", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.728", + "SEASON_START": "3.41", + "SEASON_END": "10.31", + "SHARPNESS": "6.984", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.41", + "SCORE": "0.042", + "SPECIES": "Buttercup" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/buttercup_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/buttercup_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2725a7e --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/buttercup_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,12 +4,63 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2c1ee47 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Chiffchaff", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 3.03, + "season_end_month": 7.35, + "forcing_peak_month": 4.255, + "season_width_months": 4.32, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.19, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_label": "July", + "forcing_peak_label": "April" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.208, + "DECAY": 1.953, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.463, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 2.812, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.114, + "SEASON_START": 3.03, + "SEASON_END": 7.35, + "SHARPNESS": 8.426, + "FORCING_PEAK": 4.255 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.024 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Chiffchaff is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to July, with a spring peak around April. The season is broad, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..095b76b --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.208", + "DECAY": "1.953", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.463", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "2.812", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.114", + "SEASON_START": "3.03", + "SEASON_END": "7.35", + "SHARPNESS": "8.426", + "FORCING_PEAK": "4.255", + "SCORE": "0.024", + "SPECIES": "Chiffchaff" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..83bbb21 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,19 +4,40 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mode 100644 index 0000000..80cc6f1 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..960d89c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,1.207782638e-06,5.201434600334589e-05 +2,0,0.00678290479,0.2921124592741597 +3,19,0.47705347,20.544776410899846 +4,40,1.0047941,43.27244516949293 +5,33,0.711924,30.659706555647656 +6,22,0.3545402,15.26862206384478 +7,5,0.121011605,5.211483668380255 +8,0,0.000410429269,0.017675539733720137 +9,0,8.91161463e-08,3.837874400818298e-06 +10,0,1.1652059970000001e-11,5.018074112531797e-10 +11,0,1.485436197e-15,6.397176932812664e-14 +12,0,5.062361810000001e-19,2.180155853337117e-17 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c9f261e Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/chiffchaff_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e9a2916 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Common Comfrey", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 3.355, + "season_end_month": 9.32, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.245, + "season_width_months": 5.965, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.3375, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_label": "September", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.136, + "DECAY": 1.629, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.222, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.63, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.557, + "SEASON_START": 3.355, + "SEASON_END": 9.32, + "SHARPNESS": 7.978, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.245 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.035 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Common Comfrey is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to September, with a spring peak around May. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..74de5eb --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.136", + "DECAY": "1.629", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.222", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.63", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.557", + "SEASON_START": "3.355", + "SEASON_END": "9.32", + "SHARPNESS": "7.978", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.245", + "SCORE": "0.035", + "SPECIES": "Common Comfrey" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..404db11 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2128401 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1da2065 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,1.394555792e-07,6.157667207341501e-07 +2,0,0.000683831565,0.00301946127024907 +3,1,0.304522916,1.3446222693234566 +4,6,1.3527904,5.97325193604473 +5,8,1.725749,7.620052267799399 +6,4,0.9164372999999999,4.046532911889828 +7,0,0.3791692,1.6742232632553655 +8,1,0.2438189,1.0765834208087937 +9,2,0.063502688,0.2803963969880659 +10,0,0.00012949319520000002,0.0005717777705496862 +11,0,1.1680205279999999e-08,5.1573997569882124e-08 +12,0,3.0282807200000003e-12,1.3371386782185126e-11 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e25eac5 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_comfrey_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..880891d --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Common Poppy", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.815, + "season_end_month": 9.995, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.91, + "season_width_months": 5.18, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.405, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_label": "October", + "forcing_peak_label": "June" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.77, + "DECAY": 2.051, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.936, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.915, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 3.506, + "SEASON_START": 4.815, + "SEASON_END": 9.995, + "SHARPNESS": 9.107, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.91 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.046 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Common Poppy is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to October, with a summer peak around June. The season is broad, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e29ec3f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.77", + "DECAY": "2.051", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.936", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.915", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "3.506", + "SEASON_START": "4.815", + "SEASON_END": "9.995", + "SHARPNESS": "9.107", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.91", + "SCORE": "0.046", + "SPECIES": "Common Poppy" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3c8815c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c4fb9aa Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cd19433 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,1.877627866e-14,1.1520325352355653e-12 +2,0,3.572730467e-10,2.1920753372603364e-08 +3,0,4.9836641509999995e-06,0.00030577641877834865 +4,3,0.037205021850000006,2.2827417733557493 +5,57,0.8038976,49.323734855444805 +6,62,1.0805422,66.29746994258848 +7,34,0.5342507,32.779348853803995 +8,14,0.3101597,19.030078962350807 +9,7,0.1820235,11.168187156498611 +10,8,0.01606368237,0.9855991733523811 +11,2,2.927097903e-06,0.00017959426780662176 +12,0,9.84536998e-11,6.040699940480926e-09 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..23bc955 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_poppy_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..72e84bd --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Common Vetch", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "moderate", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.545, + "season_end_month": 7.19, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.19, + "season_width_months": 2.645, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.8675, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_label": "July", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.509, + "DECAY": 1.896, + "OOS_DECAY": 5.19, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.952, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.2, + "SEASON_START": 4.545, + "SEASON_END": 7.19, + "SHARPNESS": 9.058, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.19 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.036 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Common Vetch is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to July, with a spring peak around May. The season is moderate, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..23b31f0 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.509", + "DECAY": "1.896", + "OOS_DECAY": "5.19", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.952", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.2", + "SEASON_START": "4.545", + "SEASON_END": "7.19", + "SHARPNESS": "9.058", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.19", + "SCORE": "0.036", + "SPECIES": "Common Vetch" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a7fc971 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,1 +5,27 +6,11 +7,7 +8,0 +9,0 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..12e6d03 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 14:47:36,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.11,2.756,4.554,5.005,5.787,4.04,7.32,13.525,4.37,0.06120469347128915545452593404, +2026-05-21 14:47:37,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.327,2.102,4.656,4.299,2.387,4.2,6.59,5.648,5.51,0.05607465678998513584201347489, +2026-05-21 14:47:37,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.882,0.526,4.591,4.776,4.749,5.29,7.69,12.317,5.42,0.07124442694137444508804878074, +2026-05-21 14:47:37,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.578,0.598,5.002,3.816,8.705,5.33,6.25,2.323,5.8,0.06475394992023258367516716374, +2026-05-21 14:47:38,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.574,0.889,6.601,7.985,9.189,4.84,7.41,13.399,5.41,0.04083479439727699245643848081, +2026-05-21 14:47:38,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.349,2.0,1.168,0.094,8.512,5.06,6.51,1.562,5.59,0.1150941270421513300561791862, +2026-05-21 14:47:38,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.695,2.834,6.899,1.12,9.317,4.56,6.56,13.695,6.05,0.05585817470786000056526116824, +2026-05-21 14:47:39,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.11,0.692,1.093,5.15,4.081,4.48,6.51,12.656,5.68,0.05902627540987767869392431699, +2026-05-21 14:47:39,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.871,1.243,3.559,1.449,1.898,5.4,6.85,13.406,6.01,0.09308633376509994193815300713, +2026-05-21 14:47:39,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.751,1.241,3.212,0.703,3.272,4.41,6.83,8.735,5.22,0.06506403332000480402637849966, +2026-05-21 14:47:40,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.15,1.87,3.413,4.722,6.897,4.11,6.27,8.032,4.19,0.08723049881533270897157051470, +2026-05-21 14:47:40,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.09,1.684,7.103,1.222,7.957,5.72,7.48,7.29,5.95,0.1089169807670342655584988746, +2026-05-21 14:47:40,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.009,1.666,4.045,4.048,1.297,5.8,7.83,8.496,6.03,0.1273447816200683809107261672, +2026-05-21 14:47:41,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.518,2.795,2.03,3.065,5.528,4.25,7.48,12.411,4.26,0.04131757148309896162399870347, +2026-05-21 14:47:41,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.595,2.469,5.337,5.684,2.598,4.85,6.56,1.424,5.61,0.05953034844214870478100977883, +2026-05-21 14:47:41,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.365,1.732,3.316,2.662,9.837,5.53,6.23,6.743,5.77,0.09238343538455872364362996877, +2026-05-21 14:47:42,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.112,1.605,1.561,1.178,4.248,5.34,7.16,3.528,6.37,0.08576059056591055842933398412, +2026-05-21 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14:47:44,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.02,2.679,5.973,3.773,6.563,5.79,6.08,12.191,5.98,0.1117304193679808520633926767, +2026-05-21 14:47:44,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.086,1.595,1.874,7.065,2.262,4.37,6.96,5.639,4.89,0.05503772043636765483217819194, +2026-05-21 14:47:45,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.694,1.645,3.804,2.985,1.854,5.31,7.82,8.862,6.42,0.1045686897478350003133199092, +2026-05-21 14:47:59,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.809,2.994,2.851,6.614,1.509,4.55,7.18,10.329,5.85,0.03467814261717047945503106828, +2026-05-21 14:47:59,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.498,1.227,5.926,7.595,7.389,4.23,7.4,3.457,6.28,0.07707056806484168453051454665, +2026-05-21 14:47:59,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.209,1.205,6.333,2.949,7.882,4.64,7.2,12.974,4.81,0.02597411837835959981963854053, +2026-05-21 14:48:00,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.154,0.546,2.409,5.16,4.258,5.14,7.84,13.528,5.77,0.07317942020583392046648035586, +2026-05-21 14:48:00,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.589,2.072,4.589,0.916,3.871,5.99,7.68,14.064,7.49,0.1724675370514238145160577528, +2026-05-21 14:48:00,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.329,2.8,1.786,3.429,4.137,5.3,7.68,7.841,6.13,0.08550956787001702624006785600, +2026-05-21 14:48:01,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.087,0.777,2.769,1.235,3.086,5.48,6.08,2.748,5.5,0.06542007110181860055646157824, +2026-05-21 14:48:01,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.884,1.602,6.807,7.768,5.957,4.36,7.92,4.11,4.63,0.03216869371837649037939197022, +2026-05-21 14:48:01,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.351,0.962,2.885,5.357,7.681,5.62,7.37,6.763,5.97,0.1017193100448777054638558030, +2026-05-21 14:48:02,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.321,2.233,2.329,0.577,3.19,5.63,6.42,6.707,5.81,0.1073740148414202233858526394, +2026-05-21 14:48:02,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.264,2.479,6.242,0.545,3.16,5.81,6.59,6.745,6.42,0.1228972957984249547463831878, +2026-05-21 14:48:02,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.928,0.562,7.352,5.649,5.245,4.92,6.73,8.474,5.5,0.07161541793685767507384770669, +2026-05-21 14:48:03,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.819,1.386,3.645,1.571,4.422,4.06,7.4,14.145,4.58,0.04064767573045189776999362858, +2026-05-21 14:48:03,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.765,1.167,2.215,1.524,8.641,4.65,7.97,14.704,5.56,0.09831699777586473883586483744, +2026-05-21 14:48:03,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.033,1.896,7.492,1.834,5.712,5.88,7.91,1.068,5.96,0.1541181019491173362959175937, +2026-05-21 14:48:04,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.97,0.632,5.777,5.227,3.845,4.66,6.21,14.49,5.93,0.03559839348782212704473892942, +2026-05-21 14:48:04,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.712,0.753,7.962,6.568,9.407,4.38,7.49,11.058,6.29,0.08055519907169972490200010728, +2026-05-21 14:48:04,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.57,1.414,4.497,4.678,7.376,4.53,7.16,3.661,6.34,0.07748128243564305752962151841, +2026-05-21 14:48:05,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.226,2.899,7.255,0.325,5.407,5.72,7.56,14.519,6.44,0.1226347263565821266879739557, +2026-05-21 14:48:05,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.327,0.522,2.113,4.426,8.106,4.7,7.66,7.73,6.44,0.07819871756335198990659632175, +2026-05-21 14:48:05,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.599,2.084,5.843,1.945,1.829,5.85,7.34,2.84,6.36,0.09761765455949147747633081782, +2026-05-21 14:48:06,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.297,1.953,1.918,4.135,4.331,5.47,7.75,2.959,5.94,0.1037439071494299930171626867, +2026-05-21 14:48:06,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.746,2.984,1.981,6.771,1.045,4.65,6.83,1.73,5.89,0.06342107062393946497244422459, +2026-05-21 14:48:06,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.987,2.86,5.32,7.354,2.391,4.53,7.66,12.171,5.33,0.02533741033692895787783446754, +2026-05-21 14:48:06,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.157,2.909,2.996,0.513,2.072,4.58,6.93,5.759,4.59,0.03861999924388741430857950095, +2026-05-21 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14:48:11,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.319,1.836,1.198,3.91,9.998,5.59,7.32,10.519,5.7,0.09877391384051194794847793171, +2026-05-21 14:48:11,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.68,2.103,7.579,0.438,8.905,5.32,6.12,9.531,5.72,0.05650008611799173200446105553, +2026-05-21 14:48:12,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.865,1.644,1.55,7.266,3.413,5.18,7.63,6.25,6.3,0.07737579713275581028052576851, +2026-05-21 14:48:12,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.868,1.014,3.271,7.024,4.122,4.28,7.77,1.356,5.8,0.08762556681342832012036271005, +2026-05-21 14:48:12,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.186,0.663,6.871,3.853,2.246,5.47,7.94,3.399,6.39,0.1254108757195467048867455735, +2026-05-21 14:48:13,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.007,1.46,5.115,7.969,9.272,5.54,6.57,9.005,6.26,0.1135738579153221497172568024, +2026-05-21 14:48:13,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.231,2.304,4.191,3.947,3.772,4.03,7.15,7.147,5.03,0.04393156649753058160497739965, +2026-05-21 14:48:13,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.076,2.185,1.013,6.968,8.004,5.4,6.59,4.843,6.37,0.07603545483082387457205843004, +2026-05-21 14:48:14,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.817,1.892,7.69,1.17,9.861,4.65,7.4,8.397,5.22,0.06239635639598479960731127384, +2026-05-21 14:48:14,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.058,1.858,1.603,3.752,9.672,5.52,6.87,11.001,6.19,0.09895374653247638048012307241, +2026-05-21 14:48:14,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.553,1.093,7.496,6.966,4.422,4.65,6.88,10.683,6.46,0.05887412689959450527953439021, +2026-05-21 14:48:15,common_vetch_observed.csv,1.307,1.911,5.545,0.246,8.563,4.1,6.53,10.823,5.74,0.06224506156305676760477556275, +2026-05-21 14:48:15,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.603,1.102,6.216,2.56,6.467,4.16,6.55,9.647,6.37,0.06044182563943547208741662085, +2026-05-21 14:48:15,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.845,2.226,7.207,3.708,3.676,5.16,7.61,8.013,5.72,0.06727775882364303321600096504, +2026-05-21 14:48:16,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.726,1.045,4.749,4.116,6.972,5.75,7.85,6.82,6.26,0.1331406101840130222259012351, +2026-05-21 14:48:16,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.97,2.605,6.159,5.514,1.955,4.54,7.18,4.611,4.76,0.02986027032651741677377053682, +2026-05-21 14:48:16,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.538,1.56,3.574,0.553,1.158,4.74,6.45,12.179,5.17,0.03575009793118836794833896729, +2026-05-21 14:48:17,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.681,0.7,1.188,3.031,3.72,4.55,7.38,6.731,5.4,0.05898426601001888993095382341, +2026-05-21 14:48:17,common_vetch_observed.csv,4.612,2.329,5.331,6.265,8.621,5.92,7.74,6.364,6.1,0.1286540882156810888844532060, +2026-05-21 14:48:17,common_vetch_observed.csv,3.5,2.988,6.401,4.834,4.323,4.12,7.77,2.36,5.63,0.04238171546202878999849332415, +2026-05-21 14:48:18,common_vetch_observed.csv,2.419,1.618,3.693,0.211,6.644,4.51,7.59,6.886,5.06,0.08051723429282317196555434925, +2026-05-21 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+RungeKutta4,121,12.1,9.61753E-16,0.1,0,0.01,6.62615E-16 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..508299b Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a02401a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,5.63782851e-13,1.0689035843617935e-11 +2,0,8.033885442999999e-09,1.5231837809793072e-07 +3,0,9.2051904e-05,0.0017452572379312704 +4,1,0.20532168099999998,3.89279454631884 +5,27,1.2899052,24.455945925303002 +6,11,0.7963178,15.097780097449217 +7,7,0.12357569100000002,2.342932191278827 +8,0,7.98059524e-05,0.001513080229780999 +9,0,6.273442747e-09,1.1894128079033741e-07 +10,0,3.11318822e-13,5.9024463785098555e-12 +11,0,6.91954235e-18,1.3119100034595107e-16 +12,0,7.22200142e-22,1.3692547033687552e-20 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..84b2038 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/common_vetch_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6dfabed --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Cornflower", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 6.11, + "season_end_month": 10.205, + "forcing_peak_month": 6.89, + "season_width_months": 4.095, + "season_midpoint_month": 8.1575, + "season_start_label": "June", + "season_end_label": "October", + "forcing_peak_label": "July" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.158, + "DECAY": 1.729, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.186, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.602, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.52, + "SEASON_START": 6.11, + "SEASON_END": 10.205, + "SHARPNESS": 7.509, + "FORCING_PEAK": 6.89 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.017 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Cornflower is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about June to October, with a summer peak around July. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4550da7 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.158", + "DECAY": "1.729", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.186", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.602", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.52", + "SEASON_START": "6.11", + "SEASON_END": "10.205", + "SHARPNESS": "7.509", + "FORCING_PEAK": "6.89", + "SCORE": "0.017", + "SPECIES": "Cornflower" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a7eb620 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,0 +5,1 +6,18 +7,44 +8,28 +9,12 +10,3 +11,1 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e32648f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 14:49:10,cornflower_observed.csv,1.42,2.475,5.06,7.906,4.434,5.35,9.27,12.078,7.13,0.07416907125308706512050884567, +2026-05-21 14:49:10,cornflower_observed.csv,2.332,2.296,4.07,2.132,2.681,6.98,10.22,12.529,7.77,0.08494029960648741041000714364, +2026-05-21 14:49:11,cornflower_observed.csv,1.79,1.995,6.732,3.057,8.205,6.37,9.05,9.337,7.83,0.05794835605310490494537375237, +2026-05-21 14:49:11,cornflower_observed.csv,2.359,2.401,2.85,5.662,6.309,6.7,10.38,7.635,6.75,0.01483404417197769379884187636, +2026-05-21 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100644 index 0000000..e3b7e3d Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fb3096c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,4.139343761e-17,1.3566767679541478e-15 +2,0,3.294230925e-13,1.079689637360274e-11 +3,0,1.274101929e-09,4.175890157676288e-08 +4,0,3.60618692e-06,0.00011819337309840121 +5,1,0.00790470125,0.2590778916342607 +6,18,0.63566217,20.833932818809444 +7,44,1.380429,45.243788925076814 +8,28,0.6850336,22.452089607640456 +9,12,0.388817,12.743541521136976 +10,3,0.09122065900000001,2.989772195022279 +11,1,0.00019422414,0.006365728331058367 +12,0,5.0813915800000004e-08,1.6654344996459986e-06 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b25d767 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cornflower_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cow_parsley_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cow_parsley_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9a5aa7c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cow_parsley_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Cow Parsley", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "moderate", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.245, + "season_end_month": 7.395, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.11, + "season_width_months": 3.15, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.82, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "July", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.99, + "DECAY": 1.854, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.504, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.386, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 5.442, + "SEASON_START": 4.245, + "SEASON_END": 7.395, + "SHARPNESS": 8.236, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.11 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.015 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Cow Parsley is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to July, with a spring peak around May. The season is moderate, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cow_parsley_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cow_parsley_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e3fd020 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cow_parsley_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.99", + "DECAY": "1.854", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.504", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.386", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "5.442", + "SEASON_START": "4.245", + "SEASON_END": "7.395", + "SHARPNESS": "8.236", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.11", + "SCORE": "0.015", + "SPECIES": "Cow Parsley" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cow_parsley_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cow_parsley_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dcf27c5 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cow_parsley_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 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"moderate", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 3.365, + "season_end_month": 5.43, + "forcing_peak_month": 4.245, + "season_width_months": 2.065, + "season_midpoint_month": 4.3975, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_label": "May", + "forcing_peak_label": "April" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.016, + "DECAY": 1.294, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.264, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 2.648, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.191, + "SEASON_START": 3.365, + "SEASON_END": 5.43, + "SHARPNESS": 8.368, + "FORCING_PEAK": 4.245 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.013 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Cowslip is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to May, with a spring peak around April. The season is moderate, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cowslip_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cowslip_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..56e1d09 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cowslip_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.016", + "DECAY": "1.294", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.264", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "2.648", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.191", + "SEASON_START": "3.365", + "SEASON_END": "5.43", + "SHARPNESS": "8.368", + "FORCING_PEAK": "4.245", + "SCORE": "0.013", + "SPECIES": "Cowslip" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cowslip_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cowslip_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7521985 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cowslip_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,5 +4,61 +5,38 +6,1 +7,0 +8,0 +9,0 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cowslip_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cowslip_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4b6f75a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cowslip_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 14:52:09,cowslip_observed.csv,3.091,2.08,5.505,2.152,9.804,3.43,5.67,2.581,5.24,0.02647040640732813541081918853, +2026-05-21 14:52:10,cowslip_observed.csv,2.106,0.898,2.482,2.592,3.193,3.67,4.91,10.758,4.81,0.01478437152996036947045531751, +2026-05-21 14:52:10,cowslip_observed.csv,3.355,2.955,3.233,7.23,1.365,3.0,5.59,4.514,4.39,0.02841466697818227516791908302, +2026-05-21 14:52:10,cowslip_observed.csv,4.55,2.769,2.47,5.912,1.667,3.36,4.9,11.285,3.81,0.03548298096532072036649479002, +2026-05-21 14:52:11,cowslip_observed.csv,1.53,0.944,5.767,7.488,1.306,2.25,5.06,11.619,3.63,0.1518384528589438277739335518, +2026-05-21 14:52:11,cowslip_observed.csv,1.483,2.205,4.203,3.944,3.931,2.67,5.07,11.776,3.09,0.1344178542546464351635045210, +2026-05-21 14:52:11,cowslip_observed.csv,2.637,2.988,1.824,4.026,7.891,2.87,4.51,13.307,3.11,0.1421286552190887426586774866, +2026-05-21 14:52:11,cowslip_observed.csv,3.983,2.281,6.544,6.274,1.709,3.19,4.38,1.557,3.25,0.1596044001167616854920204877, +2026-05-21 14:52:12,cowslip_observed.csv,3.645,2.573,4.217,0.686,4.197,3.38,5.13,2.132,4.29,0.05647948536163209674357582479, +2026-05-21 14:52:12,cowslip_observed.csv,1.049,1.074,5.672,1.567,7.376,2.84,4.97,8.26,4.63,0.0302872259951233793178813364, +2026-05-21 14:52:12,cowslip_observed.csv,4.537,0.732,7.457,3.348,1.45,3.15,5.07,3.233,3.43,0.03328920079114999865414980927, +2026-05-21 14:52:12,cowslip_observed.csv,3.008,0.835,3.139,7.582,6.834,2.28,4.88,6.413,4.23,0.07437276973076675341355169849, 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"species": "Cuckoo", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "narrow_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "narrow", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "narrow_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.365, + "season_end_month": 6.195, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.49, + "season_width_months": 1.83, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.28, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "June", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.656, + "DECAY": 1.726, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.778, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.406, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.168, + "SEASON_START": 4.365, + "SEASON_END": 6.195, + "SHARPNESS": 9.266, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.49 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.007 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Cuckoo is classified as narrow spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to June, with a spring peak around May. The season is narrow, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..61c30df --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.656", + "DECAY": "1.726", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.778", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.406", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.168", + "SEASON_START": "4.365", + "SEASON_END": "6.195", + "SHARPNESS": "9.266", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.49", + "SCORE": "0.007", + "SPECIES": "Cuckoo" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0fbdf67 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,2 +5,8 +6,4 +7,0 +8,0 +9,0 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7ad6e87 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 10:58:27,cuckoo_observed.csv,1.585,0.619,2.069,7.342,7.163,4.31,6.85,2.19,4.42,0.04363980455272458516761693750, +2026-05-21 10:58:27,cuckoo_observed.csv,1.622,2.133,1.04,6.894,9.568,4.47,5.05,3.417,4.66,0.06084315661176962565335716032, +2026-05-21 10:58:27,cuckoo_observed.csv,1.405,1.331,3.763,2.403,6.313,3.27,5.71,13.686,4.71,0.1155572234361771144482400112, +2026-05-21 10:58:28,cuckoo_observed.csv,3.505,1.58,7.203,3.658,3.712,4.12,6.69,12.227,6.03,0.007614663615826230535339750775, +2026-05-21 10:58:28,cuckoo_observed.csv,4.893,2.9,6.692,7.626,3.315,4.07,6.55,4.461,4.7,0.01792238174241382970608321208, +2026-05-21 10:58:28,cuckoo_observed.csv,1.435,2.997,5.03,3.381,8.002,3.5,5.88,10.399,5.46,0.06440912897310411383521905554, +2026-05-21 10:58:28,cuckoo_observed.csv,3.795,1.611,5.409,2.913,3.277,4.17,5.17,7.063,4.24,0.1084631267893883477726466157, +2026-05-21 10:58:29,cuckoo_observed.csv,1.421,1.294,2.529,7.47,3.847,3.19,5.7,13.467,3.76,0.1764621565340262254419055464, +2026-05-21 10:58:29,cuckoo_observed.csv,2.752,0.892,2.216,0.167,7.977,3.14,5.71,6.142,4.65,0.06029344710348522204417839280, +2026-05-21 10:58:29,cuckoo_observed.csv,2.762,1.442,1.321,1.336,3.526,4.15,6.78,11.816,4.99,0.02707697059362055255883491942, +2026-05-21 10:58:30,cuckoo_observed.csv,1.72,1.357,6.193,3.077,1.67,3.23,5.74,4.287,5.17,0.1214120616751575014720770484, +2026-05-21 10:58:30,cuckoo_observed.csv,4.7,1.058,1.072,0.855,7.403,3.0,5.73,3.774,5.72,0.05272383997462937006160517682, +2026-05-21 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10:59:18,cuckoo_observed.csv,2.333,2.942,6.423,5.503,9.54,3.3,6.59,6.242,4.1,0.1206290594241614181668529664, +2026-05-21 10:59:19,cuckoo_observed.csv,1.646,1.596,4.734,0.743,2.091,4.18,6.58,1.166,6.43,0.08733517899982976989932587038, +2026-05-21 10:59:19,cuckoo_observed.csv,3.773,1.01,3.873,7.103,3.382,3.33,6.88,14.56,4.79,0.08723077349105559987458373418, +2026-05-21 10:59:19,cuckoo_observed.csv,1.938,2.328,1.157,2.477,9.06,4.94,5.96,4.271,5.39,0.007292404276223297819934720928, +2026-05-21 10:59:19,cuckoo_observed.csv,3.378,0.71,7.76,7.973,9.07,4.56,5.04,6.261,4.76,0.09897800938844117339835315751, +2026-05-21 10:59:20,cuckoo_observed.csv,3.146,2.566,2.703,1.229,7.928,4.56,5.47,5.621,5.37,0.04360195203844185629067518784, +2026-05-21 10:59:20,cuckoo_observed.csv,4.276,2.03,5.553,1.221,3.551,3.41,6.21,3.061,5.26,0.04709915508856351387683977690, +2026-05-21 10:59:20,cuckoo_observed.csv,3.932,1.47,3.308,4.098,3.954,4.94,6.1,3.643,5.08,0.009456558602922266143169850917, +2026-05-21 10:59:21,cuckoo_observed.csv,4.65,1.614,2.937,1.49,9.292,4.94,5.95,4.975,5.61,0.01152664295158388387584692581, +2026-05-21 10:59:21,cuckoo_observed.csv,3.367,2.627,1.382,5.21,1.839,4.8,5.55,4.885,5.05,0.02065578082264300272914365398, +2026-05-21 10:59:21,cuckoo_observed.csv,3.326,1.035,6.453,3.174,3.069,3.77,5.21,7.347,3.98,0.1523727148200395013983029358, +2026-05-21 10:59:21,cuckoo_observed.csv,4.084,0.849,2.364,5.773,7.731,3.88,5.59,6.375,4.31,0.09171482463727148511599298333, diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ef25398 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Cuckoo Pint", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "late", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "late_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 3.925, + "season_end_month": 9.245, + "forcing_peak_month": 7.855, + "season_width_months": 5.32, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.585, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "September", + "forcing_peak_label": "August" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.748, + "DECAY": 1.671, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.395, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.752, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.626, + "SEASON_START": 3.925, + "SEASON_END": 9.245, + "SHARPNESS": 4.398, + "FORCING_PEAK": 7.855 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.068 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Cuckoo Pint is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to September, with a summer peak around August. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0febb75 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.748", + "DECAY": "1.671", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.395", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.752", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.626", + "SEASON_START": "3.925", + "SEASON_END": "9.245", + "SHARPNESS": "4.398", + "FORCING_PEAK": "7.855", + "SCORE": "0.068", + "SPECIES": "Cuckoo Pint" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a981aba --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,1 +4,10 +5,6 +6,1 +7,20 +8,15 +9,3 +10,1 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..eaea5a6 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_pint_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 14:53:05,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.65,1.218,2.656,6.618,1.413,4.41,8.93,5.647,6.11,0.2013451045148854243477143942, +2026-05-21 14:53:06,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,1.508,1.133,1.636,2.16,3.756,3.61,9.49,12.136,8.07,0.07818484392195781487989667059, +2026-05-21 14:53:06,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,4.127,0.634,3.705,3.108,3.461,4.07,8.45,10.265,6.92,0.1137510385055062155729184173, +2026-05-21 14:53:06,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,4.287,1.466,1.858,4.78,8.241,3.3,9.97,1.185,7.71,0.07697554781377627650787037036, +2026-05-21 14:53:07,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.213,2.435,1.623,7.885,3.585,3.61,8.81,11.34,6.14,0.2452545733505739221307610947, +2026-05-21 14:53:07,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,2.31,1.122,6.052,0.85,2.724,3.97,9.95,8.146,6.02,0.1272395762029513825490681256, +2026-05-21 14:53:07,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.923,0.531,2.432,7.744,1.343,4.07,9.69,10.066,7.41,0.1306004013951399337400237922, +2026-05-21 14:53:07,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,2.885,0.971,4.023,1.233,6.029,3.63,8.22,1.965,6.43,0.1847238731099277464342969216, +2026-05-21 14:53:08,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,1.765,2.24,2.828,6.408,4.248,4.59,8.66,11.969,6.28,0.1973437669119081038727339288, +2026-05-21 14:53:08,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.026,1.757,7.187,6.68,1.811,3.55,9.23,10.382,7.44,0.1143050101717070327078635088, +2026-05-21 14:53:08,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,4.815,0.622,1.812,5.245,1.327,4.98,9.66,5.19,6.82,0.1476735648382674820744994208, +2026-05-21 14:53:08,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,4.759,2.216,5.324,2.603,1.759,4.67,8.96,4.284,5.66,0.1633859160389986213910837420, +2026-05-21 14:53:09,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,4.351,1.122,6.065,1.144,5.076,4.93,9.52,4.003,7.47,0.07560357501608901600725858439, +2026-05-21 14:53:09,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,4.828,2.689,3.266,6.466,4.893,4.43,8.98,3.629,6.63,0.1653696173827679128244842858, +2026-05-21 14:53:09,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.436,1.702,3.403,0.672,9.849,4.84,8.15,2.916,5.61,0.1646650038454742623894679487, +2026-05-21 14:53:10,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.641,2.115,1.829,0.72,9.574,4.61,9.64,12.098,7.41,0.09032047223059381983030005358, +2026-05-21 14:53:11,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,1.207,2.204,2.899,4.877,9.189,4.63,9.6,6.38,5.96,0.1752891646391459488652949831, +2026-05-21 14:53:11,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,4.039,1.889,5.479,3.16,7.932,4.19,8.58,9.754,6.96,0.1193737857772180926896324212, +2026-05-21 14:53:11,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.691,1.654,3.906,1.571,1.455,3.12,9.96,6.347,7.59,0.1275937781201605942236034796, +2026-05-21 14:53:11,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.48,2.853,1.176,3.373,7.084,4.16,9.26,1.246,6.27,0.1568744571883300012942259258, +2026-05-21 14:53:12,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,4.596,0.571,6.656,7.169,9.888,4.95,9.25,9.992,7.94,0.08811752679665263753059768704, +2026-05-21 14:53:12,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,2.886,1.085,3.282,1.282,5.359,3.69,9.88,8.997,5.71,0.1437936522710944915037769764, +2026-05-21 14:53:12,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,1.558,0.771,7.726,6.408,1.07,3.42,9.93,11.668,6.28,0.1970480353110291895177645807, +2026-05-21 14:53:13,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.596,2.953,3.494,5.015,2.44,3.17,9.46,4.195,8.36,0.05532552888536039829233902182, +2026-05-21 14:53:13,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,4.412,2.51,6.983,5.581,2.68,4.28,9.18,7.433,7.22,0.1182098098153629503116415876, +2026-05-21 14:53:13,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,2.899,1.515,1.721,6.139,9.907,4.88,8.98,1.094,7.54,0.05479162752526726005583912037, +2026-05-21 14:53:13,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,1.361,1.69,5.732,1.323,7.659,3.15,9.18,4.743,6.21,0.1567366111314902250269765854, +2026-05-21 14:53:14,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,4.66,1.165,6.722,6.599,5.931,4.11,9.47,3.93,5.61,0.2216277415552770493764764952, +2026-05-21 14:53:14,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,1.843,1.803,3.026,4.005,6.296,4.24,8.06,9.141,7.4,0.1162522405768967068330303544, +2026-05-21 14:53:14,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,1.247,1.479,5.062,1.365,5.059,3.82,9.56,8.562,6.72,0.1098397760619518076262582522, +2026-05-21 14:53:14,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,1.556,2.505,5.947,5.171,2.742,3.65,8.77,3.861,7.3,0.1364810824501827191140017567, +2026-05-21 14:53:15,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,4.257,1.24,4.777,7.266,8.986,4.14,8.87,11.052,6.1,0.2109400769836495885516448436, +2026-05-21 14:53:15,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,1.312,1.503,3.114,5.975,3.583,3.87,8.06,11.255,6.46,0.2185595993490307272912854538, +2026-05-21 14:53:15,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.925,2.227,1.796,5.493,3.222,4.41,9.57,3.065,7.97,0.0610458956786086584764881612, +2026-05-21 14:53:16,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,2.287,0.655,1.067,6.191,4.632,4.97,9.93,1.034,6.99,0.07133914427888747628690569502, +2026-05-21 14:53:16,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.022,1.369,7.544,3.295,8.759,4.91,9.37,11.822,7.06,0.09780515382036379987456328559, +2026-05-21 14:53:16,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.519,2.746,2.472,2.751,9.515,4.62,8.25,1.856,6.11,0.1738414090311492411399083364, +2026-05-21 14:53:16,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.938,2.706,4.281,5.206,6.491,4.21,9.7,13.903,7.96,0.06499785136747362003115441883, +2026-05-21 14:53:17,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.341,0.95,1.682,3.194,8.576,4.3,8.72,7.953,6.79,0.1138436585250636714032747655, +2026-05-21 14:53:17,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.94,0.861,5.463,6.733,9.252,3.77,9.99,2.237,7.87,0.04680024412887957806337653009, +2026-05-21 14:53:17,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,1.583,2.172,4.651,7.306,1.95,3.53,9.61,13.551,8.24,0.06018557223197576437961330473, +2026-05-21 14:53:18,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,2.407,2.626,7.687,3.237,1.217,3.87,8.55,3.572,8.21,0.09742118390494974663815293167, +2026-05-21 14:53:18,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,4.298,0.845,3.869,6.349,4.438,3.06,8.41,3.862,8.38,0.07189621730752533612766857827, +2026-05-21 14:53:18,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,2.87,1.965,6.464,0.937,3.193,3.62,9.12,9.809,7.65,0.06402565402075774719870618056, +2026-05-21 14:53:19,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,3.776,2.495,7.605,0.537,5.691,4.89,9.45,12.248,8.49,0.1099456872651719753604665196, +2026-05-21 14:53:19,cuckoo_pint_observed.csv,1.287,2.42,3.765,3.861,8.875,3.07,9.86,5.894,7.45,0.08977722187263800426078316659, +2026-05-21 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+8,0,3.880295347e-08,2.712199710172728e-07 +9,0,3.131860917e-12,2.189068488808693e-11 +10,0,2.24161831e-16,1.5668179834301363e-15 +11,0,1.426603529e-20,9.971492713503467e-20 +12,0,8.60804487e-25,6.016742210001634e-24 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..96dd009 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/cuckoo_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0e8c127 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Dog Rose", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 5.12, + "season_end_month": 11.455, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.855, + "season_width_months": 6.335, + "season_midpoint_month": 8.2875, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_label": "November", + "forcing_peak_label": "June" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.132, + "DECAY": 1.844, + "OOS_DECAY": 5.104, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 5.03, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.297, + "SEASON_START": 5.12, + "SEASON_END": 11.455, + "SHARPNESS": 8.19, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.855 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.085 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Dog Rose is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to November, with a summer peak around June. The season is very_broad, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e35522a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.132", + "DECAY": "1.844", + "OOS_DECAY": "5.104", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "5.03", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.297", + "SEASON_START": "5.12", + "SEASON_END": "11.455", + "SHARPNESS": "8.19", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.855", + "SCORE": "0.085", + "SPECIES": "Dog Rose" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ee34e17 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,0 +5,22 +6,34 +7,1 +8,1 +9,6 +10,1 +11,2 +12,3 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ecbab59 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 14:55:29,dog_rose_observed.csv,2.375,1.657,7.126,1.864,1.903,4.62,11.07,7.122,4.63,0.1406110579325333691874321792, +2026-05-21 14:55:30,dog_rose_observed.csv,1.229,1.293,4.458,3.418,7.918,5.88,11.66,8.403,6.17,0.1666607531326145677081792084, +2026-05-21 14:55:30,dog_rose_observed.csv,3.116,2.604,7.938,5.004,6.876,5.81,11.24,14.134,6.96,0.2064269012690819085242751679, +2026-05-21 14:55:30,dog_rose_observed.csv,4.739,0.65,1.751,7.885,4.747,4.19,11.41,3.815,5.72,0.1387173930323845764468344756, +2026-05-21 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mode 100644 index 0000000..01ac270 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,2.9865253179999996e-14,7.312226235327913e-13 +2,0,2.233575068e-10,5.468698394206591e-09 +3,0,1.233844614e-06,3.020952443440442e-05 +4,0,0.00535726765,0.13116765769204008 +5,22,0.60318045,14.768305778437393 +6,34,1.3065612999999998,31.989924071101225 +7,1,0.49272330000000003,12.06386639116162 +8,1,0.2919733,7.1486915292752515 +9,6,0.1754073,4.29468269764065 +10,1,0.07316975,1.7914924824433873 +11,2,0.010196086699999999,0.24964158922766583 +12,3,6.2068153999999996e-06,0.00015196803500099214 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..aa4b519 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/dog_rose_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6fe74d0 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.185, + "season_end_month": 10.41, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.4, + "season_width_months": 6.225, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.2975, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "October", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.372, + "DECAY": 1.991, + "OOS_DECAY": 5.62, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.763, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.192, + "SEASON_START": 4.185, + "SEASON_END": 10.41, + "SHARPNESS": 9.277, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.4 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.042 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Doves Foot Cranesbill is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to October, with a spring peak around May. The season is very_broad, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..617fea4 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.372", + "DECAY": "1.991", + "OOS_DECAY": "5.62", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.763", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.192", + "SEASON_START": "4.185", + "SEASON_END": "10.41", + "SHARPNESS": "9.277", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.4", + "SCORE": "0.042", + "SPECIES": "Doves Foot Cranesbill" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b487430 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,7 +5,30 +6,25 +7,6 +8,9 +9,1 +10,2 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ec704a3 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/doves_foot_cranesbill_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 14:56:26,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,4.74,2.032,7.101,4.389,7.003,3.19,10.56,14.833,6.47,0.08267084259792550481658697458, +2026-05-21 14:56:26,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,4.098,2.441,7.2,1.974,1.42,4.79,9.75,12.003,6.41,0.1201199060477826063870898970, +2026-05-21 14:56:26,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.654,1.922,3.37,2.7,2.161,4.44,10.23,13.1,6.39,0.05361351002979752632544617354, +2026-05-21 14:56:26,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,3.659,1.763,4.53,2.328,6.283,3.57,10.08,2.768,5.73,0.07685829864426807829004957407, +2026-05-21 14:56:27,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,4.747,2.0,4.372,7.076,5.83,4.67,10.78,11.812,6.21,0.05870226657774379673324987882, +2026-05-21 14:56:27,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,3.983,2.78,3.828,4.077,9.662,3.39,9.37,12.058,4.6,0.1522833582661083511749160658, +2026-05-21 14:56:27,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.185,1.283,3.918,0.712,9.468,3.54,9.29,1.051,5.58,0.09193018369481422139209629629, +2026-05-21 14:56:28,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.241,2.99,7.361,1.992,9.478,4.08,10.24,9.365,5.2,0.03382001271757750829481672270, +2026-05-21 14:56:28,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.902,1.347,7.109,4.326,6.727,3.33,10.26,13.285,3.73,0.2190255891770538138189142397, +2026-05-21 14:56:28,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.885,0.827,5.745,6.407,8.6,4.46,10.44,14.426,5.72,0.05546761790983673887742855868, +2026-05-21 14:56:28,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.905,0.597,5.055,7.804,1.396,3.28,10.6,11.1,4.92,0.1653267476436771098983976806, +2026-05-21 14:56:29,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.251,1.443,4.127,4.883,3.099,3.6,9.65,11.824,4.42,0.1553409632537180665619017307, +2026-05-21 14:56:29,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,4.123,1.346,1.587,6.247,4.668,4.75,9.04,12.937,5.5,0.07559596863294443956174727306, +2026-05-21 14:56:29,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.555,1.31,2.882,1.291,5.469,4.99,9.07,8.788,6.5,0.1647954441505018476121133899, +2026-05-21 14:56:30,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.616,1.477,3.522,1.932,8.912,4.45,10.44,9.189,4.79,0.03053455718930959878551264770, +2026-05-21 14:56:30,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,4.149,2.133,2.9,4.446,3.405,3.67,10.53,6.2,4.32,0.1484913091304169202321511522, +2026-05-21 14:56:30,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.319,2.594,1.461,4.22,9.371,4.06,10.65,11.621,6.31,0.04515406144267188239318032711, +2026-05-21 14:56:30,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,3.33,0.503,1.41,5.257,2.448,3.93,9.67,9.548,5.0,0.06941799382493304509322228219, +2026-05-21 14:56:31,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.403,2.979,3.783,2.078,4.459,3.77,10.95,9.969,4.67,0.07868021296788157713377092109, +2026-05-21 14:56:31,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.533,1.541,7.641,6.899,7.101,4.8,9.67,14.961,4.86,0.09503302546322695654273633557, +2026-05-21 14:56:31,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.815,2.587,1.772,5.255,8.535,3.35,10.64,1.974,4.1,0.1986977564414665410524074075, +2026-05-21 14:56:32,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.322,1.271,7.163,3.467,8.593,3.56,9.38,3.316,4.58,0.1000863092216342939539912649, +2026-05-21 14:56:32,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,3.012,2.593,2.613,3.841,7.544,4.02,10.43,8.712,4.77,0.04880907397399932021387210924, +2026-05-21 14:56:32,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.727,2.745,6.824,7.004,4.832,3.39,10.91,3.644,4.73,0.1465681099723049304483787037, +2026-05-21 14:56:32,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.811,1.825,6.281,4.365,5.383,4.45,10.19,3.929,5.56,0.04952643690464941795770965907, +2026-05-21 14:56:33,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,3.821,2.176,7.162,3.086,7.387,3.04,9.09,7.65,3.52,0.1972073173009234591371793215, +2026-05-21 14:56:33,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.888,1.796,4.964,1.951,1.929,4.42,9.87,4.763,6.18,0.07880396867345394988460187924, +2026-05-21 14:56:33,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.213,2.92,1.329,2.932,1.595,3.4,9.61,14.031,5.75,0.09096869683198119862274796584, +2026-05-21 14:56:33,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.897,2.267,5.505,1.815,5.787,4.32,9.64,3.627,5.21,0.03038795800681119837251697316, +2026-05-21 14:56:34,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.401,2.537,2.969,0.152,2.591,4.9,9.75,7.25,5.9,0.1447797707591996412981613043, +2026-05-21 14:56:34,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,3.098,1.878,6.602,5.019,6.067,3.69,10.81,2.306,5.6,0.04875958135892198450935185185, +2026-05-21 14:56:34,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.197,2.937,2.768,4.42,3.611,4.54,9.84,10.367,5.06,0.03032359224376380823955216118, +2026-05-21 14:56:35,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,4.138,0.633,5.23,2.017,6.886,4.59,9.36,3.066,6.24,0.1017130569378655967521895874, +2026-05-21 14:56:35,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.276,0.603,4.511,5.535,2.421,3.26,9.36,1.509,4.1,0.1935752527197535706924898148, +2026-05-21 14:56:35,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.93,0.954,4.387,4.33,7.572,4.3,9.61,2.192,5.94,0.06338983298307431526467017824, +2026-05-21 14:56:35,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.79,1.27,4.028,5.224,6.863,3.51,9.99,12.384,3.69,0.2173048961491186918899861208, +2026-05-21 14:56:36,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,4.787,0.583,3.541,6.28,4.206,3.31,9.26,8.57,6.46,0.1060359985212066272411451669, +2026-05-21 14:56:36,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.361,2.303,5.736,4.722,5.886,4.44,10.82,8.329,5.88,0.02758636978706275460376655299, +2026-05-21 14:56:36,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,4.775,2.958,4.686,5.087,4.056,3.87,10.02,12.347,4.43,0.1187690101832864666945069329, +2026-05-21 14:56:36,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,3.913,2.412,7.11,3.992,1.386,4.35,9.55,9.591,6.49,0.06906632673195047656336053518, +2026-05-21 14:56:37,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.933,1.792,6.69,7.666,3.34,3.37,9.92,6.518,4.68,0.1655255979974263816506986473, +2026-05-21 14:56:37,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.755,2.403,1.249,0.282,9.908,3.88,9.55,5.711,5.58,0.09151816358213264494363683808, +2026-05-21 14:56:37,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,4.998,1.785,7.729,2.311,6.274,3.94,9.42,4.653,5.87,0.05452325145704972063170842394, +2026-05-21 14:56:38,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.654,1.515,5.569,1.743,5.16,4.59,9.85,9.576,6.05,0.07561440874741859412159401349, +2026-05-21 14:56:38,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.545,1.234,6.406,2.735,9.158,4.7,10.02,11.463,5.36,0.07662150825961339899648623071, +2026-05-21 14:56:38,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.673,2.008,7.874,6.663,6.536,4.59,10.97,14.847,5.07,0.04182335386881352522011535208, +2026-05-21 14:56:38,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,4.697,1.316,1.207,5.724,8.849,4.44,10.42,14.455,4.83,0.07222822699410955695635073703, +2026-05-21 14:56:39,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.283,2.202,4.58,0.844,6.156,4.79,10.83,4.708,5.89,0.07825999638122132751177838699, +2026-05-21 14:56:39,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,4.147,2.073,1.345,5.16,4.762,4.18,9.72,3.284,6.04,0.05064279588491610379385896483, +2026-05-21 14:56:39,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.192,2.083,5.773,6.428,8.433,4.81,10.53,14.363,5.77,0.07661378283674256031406047338, +2026-05-21 14:56:39,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.871,0.758,2.993,1.549,6.109,3.93,9.44,11.197,4.17,0.04208346678369790693926209264, +2026-05-21 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14:57:11,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.129,2.963,7.529,6.911,1.472,4.09,10.36,9.902,5.45,0.03711101111939698010780556897, +2026-05-21 14:57:11,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.395,1.478,6.049,0.073,7.945,3.95,9.37,8.528,6.19,0.1234812173012047014530196679, +2026-05-21 14:57:11,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,3.067,0.697,5.068,5.334,6.731,3.09,9.94,5.497,4.12,0.2192236277738983933961182081, +2026-05-21 14:57:12,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,2.982,0.71,5.874,6.304,1.15,4.57,9.34,14.821,6.39,0.05617091803772641496412189278, +2026-05-21 14:57:12,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.819,2.87,6.74,5.932,6.787,4.9,9.44,7.747,6.18,0.08858450661197695867182202398, +2026-05-21 14:57:12,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,1.075,2.121,4.125,1.233,9.297,4.97,9.6,5.214,6.4,0.1386955264675680127847085207, +2026-05-21 14:57:12,doves_foot_cranesbill_observed.csv,3.978,0.817,6.129,3.311,9.307,3.62,10.8,9.617,5.93,0.05404433453639445576660905088, +2026-05-21 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"seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Garden Warbler", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_early_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "early_spring", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "early_spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 2.035, + "season_end_month": 6.495, + "forcing_peak_month": 3.12, + "season_width_months": 4.46, + "season_midpoint_month": 4.265, + "season_start_label": "February", + "season_end_label": "June", + "forcing_peak_label": "March" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.644, + "DECAY": 1.657, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.19, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 2.56, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.474, + "SEASON_START": 2.035, + "SEASON_END": 6.495, + "SHARPNESS": 8.569, + "FORCING_PEAK": 3.12 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.065 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Garden Warbler is classified as extended early spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about February to June, with a early spring peak around March. The season is broad, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..caff6c3 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.644", + "DECAY": "1.657", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.19", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "2.56", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.474", + "SEASON_START": "2.035", + "SEASON_END": "6.495", + "SHARPNESS": "8.569", + "FORCING_PEAK": "3.12", + "SCORE": "0.065", + "SPECIES": "Garden Warbler" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..174ffe5 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bac88af Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f15bce0 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,0.0080359131,0.026801039763142288 +2,2,0.61875573,2.06364811528414 +3,4,1.32477,4.418317247235788 +4,2,0.8777294,2.9273662193633005 +5,4,0.46774699999999997,1.5600101432269737 +6,2,0.19980141,0.6663692684956853 +7,0,0.0017738587,0.005916099012182683 +8,0,6.342417179999999e-07,2.115296331858252e-06 +9,0,1.587603095e-10,5.29490714343125e-10 +10,0,3.89348914e-14,1.2985401404913485e-13 +11,0,1.05469969e-17,3.5175900956250815e-17 +12,0,3.1175154799999996e-21,1.0397406654595556e-20 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..99aa2ac Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garden_warbler_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garlic_mustard_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garlic_mustard_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..add05db --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garlic_mustard_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Garlic Mustard", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "moderate", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 3.965, + "season_end_month": 6.315, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.07, + "season_width_months": 2.35, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.14, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "June", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.634, + "DECAY": 1.8, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.113, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.203, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 5.692, + "SEASON_START": 3.965, + "SEASON_END": 6.315, + "SHARPNESS": 11.033, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.07 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.02 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Garlic Mustard is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to June, with a spring peak around May. The season is moderate, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garlic_mustard_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garlic_mustard_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ceebf44 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garlic_mustard_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.634", + "DECAY": "1.8", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.113", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.203", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "5.692", + "SEASON_START": "3.965", + "SEASON_END": "6.315", + "SHARPNESS": "11.033", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.07", + "SCORE": "0.02", + "SPECIES": "Garlic Mustard" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garlic_mustard_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garlic_mustard_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8e9212d --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/garlic_mustard_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ 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"model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 6.125, + "season_end_month": 8.56, + "forcing_peak_month": 7.475, + "season_width_months": 2.435, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.3425, + "season_start_label": "June", + "season_end_label": "September", + "forcing_peak_label": "July" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.012, + "DECAY": 1.52, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.032, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.563, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 5.208, + "SEASON_START": 6.125, + "SEASON_END": 8.56, + "SHARPNESS": 7.572, + "FORCING_PEAK": 7.475 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.037 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Gatekeeper Butterfly is classified as moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about June to September, with a summer peak around July. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e909b46 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.012", + "DECAY": "1.52", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.032", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.563", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "5.208", + "SEASON_START": "6.125", + "SEASON_END": "8.56", + "SHARPNESS": "7.572", + "FORCING_PEAK": "7.475", + "SCORE": "0.037", + "SPECIES": "Gatekeeper Butterfly" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9d27350 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,0 +5,0 +6,8 +7,13 +8,13 +9,0 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f17cbc3 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 13:25:28,gatekeeper_butterfly_observed.csv,4.233,1.539,2.988,4.562,4.763,5.77,7.81,1.462,6.43,0.1481663234775139860572932140, +2026-05-21 13:25:28,gatekeeper_butterfly_observed.csv,2.084,0.788,7.655,2.203,6.44,5.72,7.23,13.28,6.03,0.1663984912837654390318580712, +2026-05-21 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+2,0,1.141714758e-13,1.13618877387125e-12 +3,0,6.50779011e-10,6.476291923076242e-09 +4,0,2.301942226e-06,2.2908006548527035e-05 +5,0,0.00601620152,0.059870826583211696 +6,8,0.58321515,5.80392345407203 +7,13,1.581964,15.743071768793392 +8,13,0.9982888000000001,9.93457008148266 +9,0,0.01083589922,0.10783452663895787 +10,0,5.15495982e-06,5.130009432041834e-05 +11,0,1.8617292600000002e-09,1.852718352266083e-08 +12,0,5.20802627e-13,5.182819036487009e-12 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f228328 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..78d69b8 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Goats Beard", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 5.005, + "season_end_month": 8.31, + "forcing_peak_month": 6.175, + "season_width_months": 3.305, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.6575, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_label": "August", + "forcing_peak_label": "June" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.646, + "DECAY": 1.724, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.504, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.588, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.34, + "SEASON_START": 5.005, + "SEASON_END": 8.31, + "SHARPNESS": 7.9, + "FORCING_PEAK": 6.175 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.021 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Goats Beard is classified as moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to August, with a summer peak around June. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ef7d25c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.646", + "DECAY": "1.724", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.504", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.588", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.34", + "SEASON_START": "5.005", + "SEASON_END": "8.31", + "SHARPNESS": "7.9", + "FORCING_PEAK": "6.175", + "SCORE": "0.021", + "SPECIES": "Goats Beard" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a77a2a2 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,0 +5,11 +6,17 +7,8 +8,1 +9,0 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6664ac1 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 14:59:16,goats_beard_observed.csv,2.806,2.195,4.715,4.73,2.371,5.98,7.84,2.154,7.16,0.06255215761779594497271792841, +2026-05-21 14:59:16,goats_beard_observed.csv,4.408,1.515,1.864,2.274,8.95,5.93,8.24,14.109,6.31,0.09848721838835727735134701664, +2026-05-21 14:59:16,goats_beard_observed.csv,2.893,2.941,5.746,0.493,3.861,5.06,8.92,1.787,5.61,0.06993910989526664781765320888, +2026-05-21 14:59:16,goats_beard_observed.csv,1.643,1.583,1.161,2.703,3.506,4.67,7.73,3.958,7.47,0.04019787723584805708027372761, 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8e55fc5 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..42ac0f3 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,1.229021999e-13,1.6920057875396081e-12 +2,0,8.0170675e-10,1.1037169896171808e-08 +3,0,3.59520377e-06,4.949549797459905e-05 +4,0,0.01152671616,0.15868935193930836 +5,11,0.6242736,8.594431548561616 +6,17,1.265078,17.416444127368564 +7,8,0.6724026000000001,9.257027878120839 +8,1,0.13929823700000002,1.9177315246581197 +9,0,0.000400588605,0.005514939835364313 +10,0,1.003067337e-07,1.3809319449748454e-06 +11,0,1.529375017e-11,2.105504524888888e-10 +12,0,9.68819467e-16,1.3337825902049117e-14 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..006ecc9 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/goats_beard_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..819a5bf --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Green Alkanet", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 3.27, + "season_end_month": 8.29, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.25, + "season_width_months": 5.02, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.78, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_label": "August", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.376, + "DECAY": 1.812, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.046, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.752, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.245, + "SEASON_START": 3.27, + "SEASON_END": 8.29, + "SHARPNESS": 7.92, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.25 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.025 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Green Alkanet is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to August, with a spring peak around May. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..568f74a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.376", + "DECAY": "1.812", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.046", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.752", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.245", + "SEASON_START": "3.27", + "SEASON_END": "8.29", + "SHARPNESS": "7.92", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.25", + "SCORE": "0.025", + "SPECIES": "Green Alkanet" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..26f5eba --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,9 +4,57 +5,63 +6,42 +7,9 +8,6 +9,1 +10,2 +11,3 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6e87971 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 15:00:13,green_alkanet_observed.csv,2.9,0.954,2.688,5.236,4.829,2.91,7.13,10.028,4.83,0.06515001722285977294845849610, +2026-05-21 15:00:13,green_alkanet_observed.csv,2.322,1.005,6.222,1.192,8.408,3.69,8.71,14.154,6.39,0.1302087366808062847388994902, +2026-05-21 15:00:13,green_alkanet_observed.csv,4.336,0.863,2.673,6.039,3.588,2.45,8.2,14.169,5.28,0.05852225728164512928681407708, +2026-05-21 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..540bd5a Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4223223 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,2.263487202e-07,1.2257028047371349e-05 +2,0,0.001040118116,0.056323521109933126 +3,9,0.27642204000000004,14.968552480428848 +4,57,0.9887111,53.53977558494443 +5,63,1.2283050000000002,66.51404444621404 +6,42,0.6678715000000001,36.16596418264164 +7,9,0.2683989,14.534090770545554 +8,6,0.079854684,4.324217519927361 +9,1,0.00019463284599999998,0.010539579151381075 +10,2,3.623606863e-08,1.962222314011489e-06 +11,3,2.719132801e-12,1.4724398254576222e-10 +12,0,7.2502748e-16,3.92610223270658e-14 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d430137 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/green_alkanet_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e202920 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Honeysuckle", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.17, + "season_end_month": 9.085, + "forcing_peak_month": 4.96, + "season_width_months": 4.915, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.6275, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "September", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.906, + "DECAY": 1.738, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.148, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.049, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.698, + "SEASON_START": 4.17, + "SEASON_END": 9.085, + "SHARPNESS": 8.596, + "FORCING_PEAK": 4.96 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.056 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Honeysuckle is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to September, with a spring peak around May. The season is broad, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fd5c084 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.906", + "DECAY": "1.738", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.148", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.049", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.698", + "SEASON_START": "4.17", + "SEASON_END": "9.085", + "SHARPNESS": "8.596", + "FORCING_PEAK": "4.96", + "SCORE": "0.056", + "SPECIES": "Honeysuckle" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..74f241e --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,3 +5,7 +6,1 +7,5 +8,2 +9,1 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4bd3233 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 15:01:12,honeysuckle_observed.csv,3.725,2.227,3.852,2.124,5.487,3.86,9.61,13.243,4.48,0.03225803390714594926861956858, +2026-05-21 15:01:12,honeysuckle_observed.csv,1.534,1.696,5.791,6.891,2.611,3.47,8.26,3.944,4.81,0.1350824011308288159963385883, +2026-05-21 15:01:12,honeysuckle_observed.csv,4.888,0.733,7.077,0.979,6.4,3.7,9.84,5.576,5.48,0.07798243854188071071400540657, +2026-05-21 15:01:13,honeysuckle_observed.csv,2.053,1.211,2.071,5.552,9.535,3.37,9.29,12.92,6.08,0.1377362472460184339870858329, 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file mode 100644 index 0000000..8ea30f4 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9fa9470 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,5.2315873799999996e-11,2.8226369888200647e-10 +2,0,4.4449942810000005e-07,2.398240602959068e-06 +3,0,0.002998351507,0.016177227396596754 +4,3,0.52789608,2.848196720095911 +5,7,1.281644,6.91494855792565 +6,1,0.6232556,3.3626969832801357 +7,5,0.3403187,1.8361466240236228 +8,2,0.2066637,1.115027928418952 +9,1,0.0281298237,0.1517709159712196 +10,0,1.4110308439999999e-05,7.61303895614259e-05 +11,0,1.0639861800000001e-09,5.74060324165199e-09 +12,0,2.126547e-13,1.1473516133193865e-12 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e257c20 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/honeysuckle_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..af78bc6 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Horsetail", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.235, + "season_end_month": 8.78, + "forcing_peak_month": 6.58, + "season_width_months": 4.545, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.5075, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "September", + "forcing_peak_label": "July" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.398, + "DECAY": 2.098, + "OOS_DECAY": 3.1, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.422, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.312, + "SEASON_START": 4.235, + "SEASON_END": 8.78, + "SHARPNESS": 6.662, + "FORCING_PEAK": 6.58 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.026 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Horsetail is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to September, with a summer peak around July. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6c68a9c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.398", + "DECAY": "2.098", + "OOS_DECAY": "3.1", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.422", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.312", + "SEASON_START": "4.235", + "SEASON_END": "8.78", + "SHARPNESS": "6.662", + "FORCING_PEAK": "6.58", + "SCORE": "0.026", + "SPECIES": "Horsetail" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6959a7a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,3 +5,27 +6,35 +7,30 +8,8 +9,5 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..596a4eb --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/horsetail_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 15:02:10,horsetail_observed.csv,4.763,0.684,2.812,3.335,1.907,4.91,9.58,6.237,6.02,0.03325151500804289174214830200, +2026-05-21 15:02:10,horsetail_observed.csv,3.042,2.068,1.268,4.045,8.457,3.14,9.24,13.962,7.49,0.07628625703511926099578325691, +2026-05-21 15:02:11,horsetail_observed.csv,4.011,2.995,1.848,5.736,3.169,3.85,9.68,14.843,5.02,0.1183512336302139513288354498, +2026-05-21 15:02:11,horsetail_observed.csv,1.233,1.265,3.658,0.541,8.359,4.32,8.38,5.196,6.59,0.04896834317028631423034227706, +2026-05-21 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/lesser_celandine_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Lesser Celandine", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 2.28, + "season_end_month": 5.25, + "forcing_peak_month": 4.36, + "season_width_months": 2.97, + "season_midpoint_month": 3.765, + "season_start_label": "February", + "season_end_label": "May", + "forcing_peak_label": "April" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.037, + "DECAY": 1.486, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.165, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.419, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.254, + "SEASON_START": 2.28, + "SEASON_END": 5.25, + "SHARPNESS": 7.261, + "FORCING_PEAK": 4.36 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.006 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Lesser Celandine is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about February to May, with a spring peak around April. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/lesser_celandine_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/lesser_celandine_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..18474f4 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/lesser_celandine_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.037", + "DECAY": "1.486", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.165", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.419", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.254", + "SEASON_START": "2.28", + "SEASON_END": "5.25", + "SHARPNESS": "7.261", + "FORCING_PEAK": "4.36", + "SCORE": "0.006", + "SPECIES": "Lesser Celandine" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/lesser_celandine_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/lesser_celandine_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7a01172 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/lesser_celandine_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,3 +3,15 +4,22 +5,4 +6,0 +7,0 +8,0 +9,0 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/lesser_celandine_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/lesser_celandine_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3cf60ed --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/lesser_celandine_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 15:03:07,lesser_celandine_observed.csv,3.246,1.647,5.284,3.537,8.113,1.4,4.08,2.088,2.89,0.1618993497512956938230010808, +2026-05-21 15:03:08,lesser_celandine_observed.csv,4.37,1.549,5.427,2.112,4.384,2.09,5.16,5.567,4.97,0.001720904294773026671974088979, +2026-05-21 15:03:08,lesser_celandine_observed.csv,2.188,1.968,2.042,3.796,8.843,2.81,4.05,10.769,3.83,0.1008814826654771338776996057, +2026-05-21 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"seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.48, + "season_end_month": 9.33, + "forcing_peak_month": 6.64, + "season_width_months": 4.85, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.905, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "September", + "forcing_peak_label": "July" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.314, + "DECAY": 1.524, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.427, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.26, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 5.68, + "SEASON_START": 4.48, + "SEASON_END": 9.33, + "SHARPNESS": 5.997, + "FORCING_PEAK": 6.64 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.054 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Meadow Brown Butterfly is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to September, with a summer peak around July. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/meadow_brown_butterfly_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/meadow_brown_butterfly_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d9834f3 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/meadow_brown_butterfly_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.314", + "DECAY": "1.524", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.427", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.26", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "5.68", + "SEASON_START": "4.48", + "SEASON_END": "9.33", + "SHARPNESS": "5.997", + "FORCING_PEAK": "6.64", + "SCORE": "0.054", + "SPECIES": "Meadow Brown Butterfly" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..76f4ce2 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,1 +5,1 +6,15 +7,12 +8,7 +9,1 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/meadow_brown_butterfly_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/meadow_brown_butterfly_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4985c64 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/meadow_brown_butterfly_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 13:26:25,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.58,1.985,7.962,5.897,2.56,4.82,8.22,4.054,5.04,0.1223598772696910279358536966, +2026-05-21 13:26:25,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.4,1.345,1.617,0.612,3.86,3.76,9.09,12.135,4.69,0.1263905086605238823612929360, +2026-05-21 13:26:25,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.691,2.758,5.863,6.814,4.034,4.56,9.18,14.571,5.95,0.09989290169867236386410584422, +2026-05-21 13:26:26,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.881,2.437,5.618,5.837,3.923,4.88,9.13,8.799,5.24,0.1442523851600127126838189247, +2026-05-21 13:26:26,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.623,0.822,5.031,3.734,8.699,3.38,9.06,1.421,4.99,0.2019838285243475383119157406, +2026-05-21 13:26:26,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.278,2.138,7.385,2.0,1.741,4.52,8.94,8.549,6.31,0.06496396138205421049227631589, +2026-05-21 13:26:26,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.68,0.662,2.945,3.997,1.709,4.37,9.91,8.603,5.75,0.09445151975101912579365322325, +2026-05-21 13:26:27,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.572,1.85,4.433,1.338,8.567,3.41,8.02,13.848,5.14,0.2061686174461726029529414098, +2026-05-21 13:26:27,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.546,2.805,3.028,7.3,5.027,3.75,9.83,2.925,5.91,0.1476815959954445218284164267, +2026-05-21 13:26:27,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.797,2.227,3.2,0.584,3.413,3.65,8.2,1.185,7.22,0.06211857116861818955804837961, +2026-05-21 13:26:27,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.16,1.423,5.242,3.385,1.805,4.79,8.58,10.657,5.55,0.09715972689713770252653766734, +2026-05-21 13:26:28,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.247,1.148,5.613,1.875,9.75,4.34,8.23,7.176,5.78,0.07552833653427956745497719177, +2026-05-21 13:26:28,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.23,0.675,2.761,1.985,4.846,4.23,9.12,12.125,5.64,0.05558914715485987039712616468, +2026-05-21 13:26:28,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.222,0.954,2.522,4.358,3.512,3.84,9.77,6.802,5.14,0.1649769289288175952984603551, +2026-05-21 13:26:29,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.077,2.211,3.738,1.914,9.614,3.87,9.12,9.709,5.81,0.086409511241903767178555633, +2026-05-21 13:26:29,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.217,0.642,2.458,1.333,5.192,3.48,9.45,10.293,5.55,0.09898815161892696037837223850, +2026-05-21 13:26:29,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.849,1.381,2.42,1.39,8.78,4.27,9.61,8.055,5.5,0.06078958861959364264875267898, +2026-05-21 13:26:29,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.683,2.028,2.164,4.628,7.179,4.69,9.71,12.13,7.08,0.06816887717847107106236893323, +2026-05-21 13:26:30,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.968,2.067,7.231,3.912,7.826,4.96,9.31,14.437,7.18,0.05805257455147793845274651788, +2026-05-21 13:26:30,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.848,1.844,3.533,6.514,6.927,4.38,9.48,14.273,4.56,0.1778844422913494069360834619, +2026-05-21 13:26:30,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.086,1.063,2.997,6.223,1.166,3.1,8.1,12.622,6.76,0.1754573120699308628980075123, +2026-05-21 13:26:31,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.879,1.448,4.014,0.114,8.754,3.91,8.53,11.936,5.93,0.08313327213398322572311691975, +2026-05-21 13:26:31,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.471,1.592,1.853,7.194,8.729,4.23,8.88,8.31,6.2,0.08836613254896051247204164080, +2026-05-21 13:26:31,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.422,0.868,6.738,6.652,4.793,4.05,8.01,7.722,6.75,0.08532670445665618639423592676, +2026-05-21 13:26:32,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.137,2.653,4.967,1.604,9.07,3.69,8.91,13.402,6.16,0.1061018025912808371577783701, +2026-05-21 13:26:32,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.206,2.926,5.776,3.571,4.135,3.49,8.17,11.443,6.82,0.1181799393522141839907880987, +2026-05-21 13:26:32,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.169,1.664,3.4,4.665,1.131,3.36,8.51,9.041,4.57,0.2541725202439495793906559273, +2026-05-21 13:26:32,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.274,1.309,4.327,6.734,4.716,3.25,9.0,9.508,6.44,0.1249690841173849106457941940, +2026-05-21 13:26:33,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.898,1.158,2.497,4.644,8.129,4.32,8.26,8.46,5.6,0.1114607118058230835254982381, +2026-05-21 13:26:33,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.765,1.775,1.411,1.074,3.92,3.67,8.31,14.873,7.09,0.08815056244430345460477566159, +2026-05-21 13:26:33,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.211,2.465,2.318,5.878,8.251,3.16,9.11,7.532,5.52,0.2273939614628085421658883144, +2026-05-21 13:26:34,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.533,2.519,6.646,3.154,6.651,4.08,9.5,11.237,6.64,0.05396093916328887302038310151, +2026-05-21 13:26:34,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.524,1.184,6.065,7.455,9.931,3.49,9.27,1.89,7.42,0.06427845729643611136872178008, +2026-05-21 13:26:34,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.549,2.565,2.919,7.555,5.067,4.64,9.58,13.263,5.91,0.07864059507797033281028818278, +2026-05-21 13:26:34,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.79,2.173,5.82,4.614,7.537,4.63,9.35,8.918,5.92,0.05882293187266849124074463822, +2026-05-21 13:26:35,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.155,0.964,1.446,5.946,5.589,3.37,8.23,13.485,4.91,0.2845547714637372102839131702, +2026-05-21 13:26:35,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.129,0.579,5.66,7.512,9.372,4.57,8.51,6.789,4.98,0.2015153911649514772554125510, +2026-05-21 13:26:35,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.049,1.123,6.72,4.49,9.137,3.2,9.28,11.131,4.53,0.2790574152330810761360380572, +2026-05-21 13:26:36,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.435,1.916,6.974,7.743,4.289,4.99,8.45,2.767,7.3,0.07676427284983963878091552264, +2026-05-21 13:26:36,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.152,2.741,5.519,1.411,7.744,4.38,9.08,6.047,7.2,0.05972252194391583348607979664, +2026-05-21 13:26:36,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.132,1.098,3.459,5.893,3.225,3.74,8.13,6.937,6.8,0.07681006401771216911958159031, +2026-05-21 13:26:36,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.129,2.632,7.513,2.479,3.747,3.25,9.82,13.039,5.23,0.1983487565147852640196524301, +2026-05-21 13:26:37,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.204,1.264,1.593,0.46,7.59,3.92,8.39,12.608,5.11,0.1205957558970085281224050479, +2026-05-21 13:26:37,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.443,2.195,5.515,6.91,2.905,4.53,8.7,10.288,6.49,0.07556540141442518801886783486, +2026-05-21 13:26:37,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.211,2.377,4.903,4.581,8.854,4.79,8.64,5.45,5.98,0.06641079688893874900825416782, +2026-05-21 13:26:38,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.506,1.441,6.583,0.464,4.274,4.77,8.91,4.664,6.84,0.05900057530444190610217041158, +2026-05-21 13:26:38,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.628,1.712,6.548,4.627,7.359,4.38,9.31,12.163,5.13,0.1593045591275072953348789381, +2026-05-21 13:26:38,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.099,1.556,1.648,7.367,4.408,3.9,9.0,5.575,7.45,0.07202010077539870914311241806, +2026-05-21 13:26:39,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.742,2.8,4.144,7.095,8.748,4.28,8.05,4.926,7.23,0.06293667108747358674593326610, +2026-05-21 13:26:39,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.551,2.684,4.683,0.828,6.356,3.56,8.59,10.844,5.48,0.1779191981375727792748199857, +2026-05-21 13:26:39,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.89,1.581,2.842,2.392,7.064,4.48,9.39,1.792,5.79,0.03773867228073321302783796297, +2026-05-21 13:26:39,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.531,0.84,7.181,6.364,1.871,3.28,9.25,9.39,6.41,0.1657976769754332658849665821, +2026-05-21 13:26:40,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.446,2.604,4.289,5.433,7.097,3.06,9.62,1.289,5.16,0.2416043677054616776672601851, +2026-05-21 13:26:40,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.542,1.877,4.198,2.881,7.793,3.87,9.48,13.761,4.67,0.1875405868725194857528267335, +2026-05-21 13:26:40,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.664,1.171,6.341,1.028,3.591,3.75,9.71,13.025,7.3,0.07524617716318948436423602119, +2026-05-21 13:26:40,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.369,0.936,7.048,1.102,1.692,3.75,8.01,3.623,7.42,0.05482681366912124633396278405, +2026-05-21 13:26:41,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.174,1.194,6.226,5.907,1.27,4.58,8.72,9.38,7.48,0.04416466674063893554541177092, +2026-05-21 13:26:41,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.086,1.261,6.963,2.709,1.901,3.7,8.87,11.358,6.69,0.07843225295342601160034768179, +2026-05-21 13:26:41,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.904,2.638,4.71,6.421,1.138,3.46,8.02,11.165,5.39,0.2706916135480538884097906909, +2026-05-21 13:26:42,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.718,1.866,1.29,1.582,1.878,3.42,8.26,11.915,7.22,0.1135370280418230124535551637, +2026-05-21 13:26:42,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.65,0.92,3.534,4.569,5.183,3.49,9.92,6.721,6.36,0.08468914568500855659498903605, +2026-05-21 13:26:42,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.418,2.788,3.327,1.55,6.498,4.11,8.22,8.884,6.58,0.08176783159137258558993107923, +2026-05-21 13:26:42,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.4,1.929,4.555,0.458,3.278,4.03,8.38,13.747,6.9,0.08688255854664759209373082268, +2026-05-21 13:26:43,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.399,2.415,6.968,6.958,6.525,3.29,8.09,11.075,5.23,0.2809611733006229413269367946, +2026-05-21 13:26:43,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.598,1.438,1.957,5.714,7.709,3.12,9.11,11.433,5.07,0.2652386316322054724198344726, +2026-05-21 13:26:43,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.06,2.2,1.638,2.126,3.961,4.61,8.68,6.118,6.49,0.05456048895911574123903371686, +2026-05-21 13:26:44,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.907,0.66,4.818,4.051,7.14,3.63,9.97,8.185,6.93,0.05131708929758073131802270905, +2026-05-21 13:26:44,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.449,1.75,6.286,0.803,7.43,3.53,8.17,10.872,7.18,0.08835460460175305112458274649, +2026-05-21 13:26:44,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.57,2.177,1.41,6.713,7.748,4.24,8.32,11.839,5.48,0.1623901591449460651447662957, +2026-05-21 13:26:44,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,2.134,1.563,2.47,6.545,3.154,3.76,8.75,1.615,5.95,0.1603765518709055498339365740, +2026-05-21 13:26:45,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.107,1.862,1.999,7.041,2.279,4.88,8.19,11.531,7.48,0.08303678433159860862064081281, +2026-05-21 13:26:45,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.57,2.643,2.085,4.164,3.414,3.5,9.63,8.401,4.75,0.2336788386899784691012823305, +2026-05-21 13:26:45,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.061,2.236,6.792,2.729,7.402,3.45,8.8,4.202,5.18,0.2013719088846963264069577265, +2026-05-21 13:26:46,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,3.922,2.158,2.507,1.254,7.439,3.68,8.5,13.836,6.9,0.09740673449013956899974436956, +2026-05-21 13:26:46,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.098,1.086,4.3,3.516,9.011,4.95,9.95,2.037,5.86,0.02411188952241096173913637962, +2026-05-21 13:26:46,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,1.341,0.991,1.027,3.149,4.242,4.71,8.86,1.307,6.36,0.02572535132322467691275671296, +2026-05-21 13:26:46,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.85,1.915,2.024,5.179,5.702,4.49,8.13,2.62,6.31,0.06918670813719458268091590571, +2026-05-21 13:26:47,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.246,2.628,3.128,2.09,1.136,3.19,9.6,6.515,4.98,0.2187941407634793264128764908, +2026-05-21 13:26:47,meadow_brown_butterfly_observed.csv,4.166,0.891,1.275,7.004,4.94,4.09,8.11,4.735,5.34,0.2020509683304180486540789663, +2026-05-21 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@@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 3.775, + "season_end_month": 6.2, + "forcing_peak_month": 4.295, + "season_width_months": 2.425, + "season_midpoint_month": 4.9875, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "June", + "forcing_peak_label": "April" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.76, + "DECAY": 1.771, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.252, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.613, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 5.042, + "SEASON_START": 3.775, + "SEASON_END": 6.2, + "SHARPNESS": 7.278, + "FORCING_PEAK": 4.295 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.038 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Orange Tip Butterfly is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to June, with a spring peak around April. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/orange_tip_butterfly_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/orange_tip_butterfly_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e52f385 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/orange_tip_butterfly_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.76", + "DECAY": "1.771", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.252", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.613", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "5.042", + "SEASON_START": "3.775", + "SEASON_END": "6.2", + "SHARPNESS": "7.278", + "FORCING_PEAK": "4.295", + "SCORE": "0.038", + "SPECIES": "Orange Tip Butterfly" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/orange_tip_butterfly_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/orange_tip_butterfly_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6e7154e --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/orange_tip_butterfly_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,25 +5,19 +6,2 +7,0 +8,0 +9,0 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/orange_tip_butterfly_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/orange_tip_butterfly_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a5c3c71 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/orange_tip_butterfly_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 13:27:22,orange_tip_butterfly_observed.csv,2.076,2.336,1.987,5.546,7.91,4.83,6.53,8.321,5.04,0.1235368363405105883598016652, +2026-05-21 13:27:22,orange_tip_butterfly_observed.csv,2.275,1.265,5.214,7.31,4.216,3.17,6.0,11.417,5.36,0.05383690418273586589039566846, +2026-05-21 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100644 index 0000000..ee3999f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Oxeye Daisy", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.47, + "season_end_month": 10.18, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.365, + "season_width_months": 5.71, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.325, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "October", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.634, + "DECAY": 2.09, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.01, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.995, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.734, + "SEASON_START": 4.47, + "SEASON_END": 10.18, + "SHARPNESS": 7.21, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.365 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.038 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Oxeye Daisy is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to October, with a spring peak around May. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..782f8c4 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.634", + "DECAY": "2.09", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.01", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.995", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.734", + "SEASON_START": "4.47", + "SEASON_END": "10.18", + "SHARPNESS": "7.21", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.365", + "SCORE": "0.038", + "SPECIES": "Oxeye Daisy" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..007f6d8 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,5 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dbd19f3 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,1.1666842530000001e-10,7.796907436229368e-09 +2,0,2.7834238e-07,1.860151765020677e-05 +3,0,0.0005206007860000001,0.034791556749247166 +4,5,0.200052911,13.369461578009588 +5,62,0.9746923000000001,65.13832360695714 +6,58,0.7563906,50.54930225268064 +7,21,0.34294020000000003,22.918565916068694 +8,16,0.2253444,15.05968237382771 +9,3,0.11606469999999999,7.756560699150283 +10,7,0.0161727522,1.0808190096697472 +11,1,1.2801634090000001e-05,0.0008555284411832065 +12,0,6.7991664e-09,4.543857597118083e-07 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1818bd7 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/oxeye_daisy_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c0f3261 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Peacock Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 2.53, + "season_end_month": 8.25, + "forcing_peak_month": 4.125, + "season_width_months": 5.72, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.39, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_label": "August", + "forcing_peak_label": "April" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.639, + "DECAY": 1.88, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.902, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.002, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.29, + "SEASON_START": 2.53, + "SEASON_END": 8.25, + "SHARPNESS": 7.768, + "FORCING_PEAK": 4.125 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.07 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Peacock Butterfly is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to August, with a spring peak around April. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fd0e08a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.639", + "DECAY": "1.88", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.902", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.002", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.29", + "SEASON_START": "2.53", + "SEASON_END": "8.25", + "SHARPNESS": "7.768", + "FORCING_PEAK": "4.125", + "SCORE": "0.07", + "SPECIES": "Peacock Butterfly" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5905e97 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_observed.csv @@ -0,0 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d19026a Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3f2a1f4 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,0.00022858916200000002,0.0009753368612724593 +2,1,0.198909137,0.8486990881920884 +3,3,1.3382759,5.710112432288349 +4,10,1.7843550000000001,7.6134283439729264 +5,1,0.9230056,3.938250514435601 +6,5,0.4434568,1.8921271666498722 +7,3,0.2825011,1.205366578928257 +8,3,0.060193388,0.2568312058525124 +9,0,7.69951494e-05,0.000328520419305794 +10,0,5.61173997e-09,2.394399104808392e-08 +11,0,4.20877108e-12,1.7957848653303597e-11 +12,0,9.0405422e-15,3.857389377694649e-14 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5160128 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f83413e --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 2.855, + "season_end_month": 11.63, + "forcing_peak_month": 7.62, + "season_width_months": 8.775, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.2425, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_label": "December", + "forcing_peak_label": "August" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.76, + "DECAY": 1.809, + "OOS_DECAY": 3.538, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 2.807, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.59, + "SEASON_START": 2.855, + "SEASON_END": 11.63, + "SHARPNESS": 7.073, + "FORCING_PEAK": 7.62 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.076 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Red Admiral Butterfly is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to December, with a summer peak around August. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f231307 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.76", + "DECAY": "1.809", + "OOS_DECAY": "3.538", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "2.807", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.59", + "SEASON_START": "2.855", + "SEASON_END": "11.63", + "SHARPNESS": "7.073", + "FORCING_PEAK": "7.62", + "SCORE": "0.076", + "SPECIES": "Red Admiral Butterfly" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5877cbf --- /dev/null +++ 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..889ed38 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..aa332fc --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,1.2064072000000002e-07,4.421643371296136e-07 +2,0,0.003475288714,0.012737396880255996 +3,1,0.15213832,0.5576072441776957 +4,3,0.491106,1.7999690233146484 +5,1,0.8716429,3.1946875407593227 +6,3,1.2161149999999998,4.457223753707536 +7,7,1.431909,5.2481375593160235 +8,3,1.2142428,4.450361890880674 +9,4,0.5630382,2.063610134966459 +10,4,0.3589756,1.3156934757990941 +11,2,0.16137813,0.5914723807903882 +12,0,0.00373882206,0.01370328175930545 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..03b819e Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..598d003 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Red Campion", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.135, + "season_end_month": 9.95, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.16, + "season_width_months": 5.815, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.0425, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "October", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.963, + "DECAY": 1.796, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.592, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.028, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 3.958, + "SEASON_START": 4.135, + "SEASON_END": 9.95, + "SHARPNESS": 9.054, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.16 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.037 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Red Campion is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to October, with a spring peak around May. The season is broad, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..782694b --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.963", + "DECAY": "1.796", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.592", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.028", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "3.958", + "SEASON_START": "4.135", + "SEASON_END": "9.95", + "SHARPNESS": "9.054", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.16", + "SCORE": "0.037", + "SPECIES": "Red Campion" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..873729b --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,29 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d33c38e --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,2.094806502e-11,1.0377407603346252e-09 +2,0,2.951853322e-07,1.4623109618210307e-05 +3,0,0.0032326086909999995,0.16013936359562897 +4,29,0.5596427800000001,27.72399854012786 +5,65,1.33217,65.99402414376208 +6,45,0.7679322,38.04239409953108 +7,12,0.37597369999999997,18.625263618922176 +8,3,0.2389599,11.837772514011702 +9,4,0.11172755000000001,5.534842123920659 +10,7,0.006268392959999999,0.3105282931944332 +11,3,7.42200197e-07,3.6767663076276275e-05 +12,0,8.56435637e-11,4.2426742912508345e-09 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..18cf477 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_campion_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9545efa --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Red Clover", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.25, + "season_end_month": 11.115, + "forcing_peak_month": 6.355, + "season_width_months": 6.865, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.6825, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "November", + "forcing_peak_label": "June" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.858, + "DECAY": 1.75, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.057, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.41, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.036, + "SEASON_START": 4.25, + "SEASON_END": 11.115, + "SHARPNESS": 7.09, + "FORCING_PEAK": 6.355 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.038 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Red Clover is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to November, with a summer peak around June. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6d18fa5 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.858", + "DECAY": "1.75", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.057", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.41", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.036", + "SEASON_START": "4.25", + "SEASON_END": "11.115", + "SHARPNESS": "7.09", + "FORCING_PEAK": "6.355", + "SCORE": "0.038", + "SPECIES": "Red Clover" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c08a145 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,2 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6a119d6 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,3.1638427200000003e-10,7.912397650966996e-09 +2,0,1.031633218e-06,2.5799930569123618e-05 +3,0,0.00212239616,0.05307862582627171 +4,2,0.33651084,8.415739389032998 +5,32,1.1920075,29.81070229349151 +6,37,1.485204,37.14320110326718 +7,19,0.8975002999999999,22.445424421926297 +8,15,0.3720622,9.304836990422876 +9,9,0.2402454,6.008254223887672 +10,3,0.12216011,3.0550803341003934 +11,2,0.014227061,0.35580202304292846 +12,0,8.737131909999999e-06,0.0002185053686893537 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7190658 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_clover_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..88d98fb --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Red Dead Nettle", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 2.37, + "season_end_month": 9.965, + "forcing_peak_month": 4.215, + "season_width_months": 7.595, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.1675, + "season_start_label": "February", + "season_end_label": "October", + "forcing_peak_label": "April" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.583, + "DECAY": 1.756, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.49, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.544, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.538, + "SEASON_START": 2.37, + "SEASON_END": 9.965, + "SHARPNESS": 6.668, + "FORCING_PEAK": 4.215 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.057 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Red Dead Nettle is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about February to October, with a spring peak around April. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..52bfd64 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.583", + "DECAY": "1.756", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.49", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.544", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.538", + "SEASON_START": "2.37", + "SEASON_END": "9.965", + "SHARPNESS": "6.668", + "FORCING_PEAK": "4.215", + "SCORE": "0.057", + "SPECIES": "Red Dead Nettle" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f109257 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,1 +2,9 +3,48 +4,84 +5,37 +6,14 +7,13 +8,8 +9,5 +10,6 +11,4 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1841b96 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 15:09:30,red_dead_nettle_observed.csv,2.738,1.38,6.338,5.218,9.815,2.02,10.84,8.09,3.87,0.07601664261037371274085058072, +2026-05-21 15:09:30,red_dead_nettle_observed.csv,4.437,0.849,5.769,2.227,9.89,1.05,10.52,5.47,2.9,0.1742313490669575523945296939, +2026-05-21 15:09:31,red_dead_nettle_observed.csv,1.645,2.887,1.941,1.349,1.511,2.22,9.8,5.992,5.09,0.1220949840037575775612366752, +2026-05-21 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_simulated.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..806039b Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5013873 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,1,0.00111114597,0.060066050180067436 +2,9,0.23118084,12.497115870482922 +3,48,1.0422765,56.34312164269926 +4,84,1.336965,72.27331867026783 +5,37,0.7858044,42.478817181974556 +6,14,0.3691786,19.956964171869377 +7,13,0.2379096,12.860857491045728 +8,8,0.11872233000000001,6.417861940564412 +9,5,0.032011248000000006,1.7304560162285283 +10,6,0.00066066541,0.035714085044375246 +11,4,5.0520879e-06,0.00027310450067646066 +12,0,3.63180572e-08,1.9632724278501047e-06 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..60c3a72 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/red_dead_nettle_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..43367f5 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Reed Warbler", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 3.29, + "season_end_month": 6.115, + "forcing_peak_month": 4.12, + "season_width_months": 2.825, + "season_midpoint_month": 4.7025, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_label": "June", + "forcing_peak_label": "April" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.24, + "DECAY": 1.618, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.096, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.075, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.19, + "SEASON_START": 3.29, + "SEASON_END": 6.115, + "SHARPNESS": 7.004, + "FORCING_PEAK": 4.12 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.06 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Reed Warbler is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to June, with a spring peak around April. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ceceffc --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.24", + "DECAY": "1.618", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.096", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.075", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.19", + "SEASON_START": "3.29", + "SEASON_END": "6.115", + "SHARPNESS": "7.004", + "FORCING_PEAK": "4.12", + "SCORE": "0.06", + "SPECIES": "Reed Warbler" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fe19f0d --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,1 +4,4 +5,1 +6,3 +7,0 +8,0 +9,0 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..415b328 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 11:00:19,reed_warbler_observed.csv,3.425,2.444,2.797,1.932,8.212,2.32,6.03,5.336,5.45,0.1178140631057952985746418087, +2026-05-21 11:00:19,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.064,1.467,4.174,7.243,4.234,3.49,5.99,11.632,4.27,0.07005402155749088372014894167, +2026-05-21 11:00:19,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.695,1.833,3.187,5.4,9.579,2.99,5.17,5.514,4.96,0.07182174117284942567604735632, +2026-05-21 11:00:20,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.439,0.534,7.205,1.3,4.073,2.7,5.69,14.581,2.94,0.09197445111965366164826599664, +2026-05-21 11:00:20,reed_warbler_observed.csv,3.72,0.768,7.878,7.443,5.403,2.29,5.83,14.071,3.72,0.1184375762916935539147088388, +2026-05-21 11:00:20,reed_warbler_observed.csv,3.82,1.793,5.72,5.992,1.418,2.88,5.5,3.65,5.45,0.07233273516195261358673312198, +2026-05-21 11:00:20,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.918,2.658,2.237,3.692,2.835,3.11,6.89,10.539,3.34,0.03650746324334366388948086832, +2026-05-21 11:00:21,reed_warbler_observed.csv,3.872,2.033,6.151,1.118,7.07,2.31,5.43,13.255,3.18,0.1566440250000395510498997298, +2026-05-21 11:00:21,reed_warbler_observed.csv,3.389,1.71,1.005,5.796,5.656,2.51,6.92,11.271,3.4,0.1192333093549865169591301047, +2026-05-21 11:00:21,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.36,2.677,4.292,7.388,3.935,3.89,6.46,14.829,4.89,0.1072941817998912179647455253, +2026-05-21 11:00:21,reed_warbler_observed.csv,2.577,2.812,1.377,6.298,9.036,2.47,5.82,14.839,4.82,0.1398889515129035436725778371, +2026-05-21 11:00:22,reed_warbler_observed.csv,2.967,0.805,1.111,6.452,4.227,2.88,6.0,8.35,3.6,0.08080764522839548909487147456, +2026-05-21 11:00:22,reed_warbler_observed.csv,2.856,1.25,3.967,0.682,3.625,3.62,5.4,7.172,4.15,0.08063614826568076516648247034, +2026-05-21 11:00:22,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.167,2.891,5.936,5.594,5.465,2.61,6.46,11.405,2.97,0.1389168259755253456418981684, +2026-05-21 11:00:23,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.023,1.541,3.971,4.225,9.3,3.79,5.0,2.478,4.78,0.07012667272210226606987661863, +2026-05-21 11:00:23,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.659,1.773,7.671,4.396,5.202,2.77,5.19,14.417,3.53,0.09361951710922816225974649012, +2026-05-21 11:00:23,reed_warbler_observed.csv,2.977,1.157,4.172,0.994,7.118,2.27,5.14,2.523,4.82,0.1037410033649523755113297214, +2026-05-21 11:00:23,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.662,1.644,5.871,7.277,1.918,2.35,6.4,2.716,5.04,0.07835162412454916171791989432, +2026-05-21 11:00:24,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.488,1.152,4.481,7.041,6.739,3.86,5.52,8.607,4.14,0.1010089263091853112247060199, +2026-05-21 11:00:24,reed_warbler_observed.csv,2.761,1.666,5.855,4.654,2.578,3.41,5.89,11.731,5.13,0.1175742667956736364429805608, +2026-05-21 11:00:24,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.895,2.931,4.518,5.891,1.897,2.29,6.9,7.366,3.19,0.1357389973022252591348976470, +2026-05-21 11:00:25,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.683,2.322,3.677,7.12,2.99,2.53,5.72,6.346,2.71,0.1737203207993338335440844737, +2026-05-21 11:00:25,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.205,2.329,6.938,2.661,2.909,3.99,5.64,4.717,5.18,0.1422196880829482988511656669, +2026-05-21 11:00:25,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.891,0.884,4.829,5.105,1.723,2.39,5.07,9.832,3.8,0.1511538938184724947174996108, +2026-05-21 11:00:25,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.557,0.992,3.483,4.24,1.459,3.39,5.26,12.51,4.91,0.07163515243315864361303189273, +2026-05-21 11:00:26,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.378,0.853,3.913,1.022,7.876,2.46,5.18,14.594,3.73,0.1038664812218232729068896271, +2026-05-21 11:00:26,reed_warbler_observed.csv,2.359,0.682,2.373,2.815,3.516,3.06,6.48,3.465,3.92,0.0379695908650585747210479934, +2026-05-21 11:00:26,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.098,1.8,4.976,3.117,7.471,3.8,6.64,14.906,4.95,0.1090468984220193297968967750, +2026-05-21 11:00:26,reed_warbler_observed.csv,3.445,2.181,4.822,2.611,8.269,2.63,5.28,2.485,4.24,0.1012306188831233737293950273, +2026-05-21 11:00:27,reed_warbler_observed.csv,3.601,2.776,6.243,0.861,7.518,2.35,6.07,10.119,3.78,0.1125230001982918721899531498, +2026-05-21 11:00:27,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.939,0.849,5.955,4.93,7.365,2.91,5.31,5.362,2.98,0.1244787348900890614489724272, +2026-05-21 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11:00:29,reed_warbler_observed.csv,2.351,2.839,6.977,6.697,1.225,2.89,6.15,6.606,5.16,0.06568049795621757211243611026, +2026-05-21 11:00:30,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.117,2.131,1.221,2.738,4.875,3.65,5.62,1.508,4.16,0.06472935551238319995067584259, +2026-05-21 11:00:30,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.2,0.744,4.643,5.055,6.426,2.43,6.58,12.699,5.41,0.09504267134286611007043402915, +2026-05-21 11:00:30,reed_warbler_observed.csv,2.558,2.081,4.386,5.244,4.372,2.3,5.57,5.515,5.34,0.1149095950521465847078609237, +2026-05-21 11:00:30,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.572,2.328,7.967,6.88,3.701,3.13,6.16,2.828,3.3,0.07348286591580544267097482875, +2026-05-21 11:00:31,reed_warbler_observed.csv,3.878,0.76,7.727,3.721,1.897,3.43,5.16,9.542,4.51,0.07004502430177244328180577827, +2026-05-21 11:00:31,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.685,1.249,4.42,5.876,8.473,3.91,5.7,6.514,4.91,0.1548507539342625048630550864, +2026-05-21 11:00:31,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.308,1.793,1.584,0.962,5.068,2.99,5.79,1.963,4.34,0.07168057015812848868755582620, +2026-05-21 11:00:31,reed_warbler_observed.csv,3.87,1.696,5.877,1.534,7.535,3.2,5.1,7.514,4.33,0.06856213475868527975430510802, +2026-05-21 11:00:32,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.028,2.784,4.555,7.596,2.856,3.03,5.03,9.643,3.08,0.1261108578057779853444426675, +2026-05-21 11:00:32,reed_warbler_observed.csv,3.323,1.682,5.764,5.789,2.507,2.29,6.6,12.832,4.96,0.08728312747354315322718765691, +2026-05-21 11:00:32,reed_warbler_observed.csv,2.807,2.804,4.249,2.015,6.711,2.48,5.87,3.469,4.3,0.09019048367995967619603034125, +2026-05-21 11:00:33,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.854,2.772,1.14,4.811,8.833,2.17,5.37,11.422,4.03,0.1370779935661393092045062748, +2026-05-21 11:00:33,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.339,1.517,3.898,7.585,6.684,2.97,5.68,8.131,3.2,0.1238015791012894392621213254, +2026-05-21 11:00:33,reed_warbler_observed.csv,2.123,2.409,2.381,6.199,6.691,2.63,6.33,8.918,3.14,0.1368848232399877973145258552, +2026-05-21 11:00:33,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.211,0.998,5.978,5.516,8.733,2.54,6.97,1.89,3.32,0.08050293086172735980856845370, +2026-05-21 11:00:34,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.653,1.352,1.907,2.658,8.618,3.71,6.35,9.422,4.39,0.08007621726753494621162401288, +2026-05-21 11:00:34,reed_warbler_observed.csv,2.18,1.827,5.77,4.071,7.365,3.58,6.43,13.994,4.88,0.08890283135294427980573922151, +2026-05-21 11:00:34,reed_warbler_observed.csv,2.787,1.858,3.224,5.238,1.813,3.33,6.26,7.422,3.41,0.04098693538124859993058461568, +2026-05-21 11:00:35,reed_warbler_observed.csv,1.747,2.064,5.739,4.966,6.399,3.28,5.83,2.933,5.39,0.06028666589548994747085829791, +2026-05-21 11:00:35,reed_warbler_observed.csv,4.166,2.045,1.59,0.382,2.175,3.49,5.91,2.492,4.69,0.07400374650300644972435139861, +2026-05-21 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+7,0,0.00026574216099999997,0.0006300781191819746 +8,0,1.51387165e-07,3.5894093670552806e-07 +9,0,5.423120689999999e-11,1.2858289672943739e-10 +10,0,7.79588727e-15,1.848415008725807e-14 +11,0,1.1555233e-17,2.7397607695940598e-17 +12,0,5.18022025e-20,1.228236957126415e-19 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..57b101a Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/reed_warbler_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f0f1db5 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Rosebay Willowherb", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "moderate", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "moderate_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 6.075, + "season_end_month": 9.3, + "forcing_peak_month": 8.265, + "season_width_months": 3.225, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.6875, + "season_start_label": "June", + "season_end_label": "September", + "forcing_peak_label": "August" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.374, + "DECAY": 1.661, + "OOS_DECAY": 5.364, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.216, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 5.862, + "SEASON_START": 6.075, + "SEASON_END": 9.3, + "SHARPNESS": 8.808, + "FORCING_PEAK": 8.265 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.012 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Rosebay Willowherb is classified as moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about June to September, with a summer peak around August. The season is moderate, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ac5bf9a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.374", + "DECAY": "1.661", + "OOS_DECAY": "5.364", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.216", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "5.862", + "SEASON_START": "6.075", + "SEASON_END": "9.3", + "SHARPNESS": "8.808", + "FORCING_PEAK": "8.265", + "SCORE": "0.012", + "SPECIES": "Rosebay Willowherb" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..418afeb --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,0 +5,0 +6,12 +7,25 +8,29 +9,13 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ca10a87 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/rosebay_willowherb_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 15:11:28,rosebay_willowherb_observed.csv,2.558,0.659,4.628,0.476,1.771,5.0,9.06,8.34,8.92,0.02671443309843711051630835732, +2026-05-21 15:11:28,rosebay_willowherb_observed.csv,4.848,1.524,2.654,0.219,6.041,5.81,8.74,13.488,6.69,0.03987878492636595981295883430, +2026-05-21 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+1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Snowdrop", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "narrow_winter_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width": "narrow", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "winter_peak", + "narrow_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 1.385, + "season_end_month": 3.31, + "forcing_peak_month": 2.45, + "season_width_months": 1.925, + "season_midpoint_month": 2.3475, + "season_start_label": "January", + "season_end_label": "March", + "forcing_peak_label": "February" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.344, + "DECAY": 1.774, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.75, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.948, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 5.35, + "SEASON_START": 1.385, + "SEASON_END": 3.31, + "SHARPNESS": 6.531, + "FORCING_PEAK": 2.45 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.003 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Snowdrop is classified as narrow winter seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about January to March, with a winter peak around February. The season is narrow, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e75b80d --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.344", + "DECAY": "1.774", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.75", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.948", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "5.35", + "SEASON_START": "1.385", + "SEASON_END": "3.31", + "SHARPNESS": "6.531", + "FORCING_PEAK": "2.45", + "SCORE": "0.003", + "SPECIES": "Snowdrop" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a35cb60 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,4 +2,30 +3,12 +4,0 +5,0 +6,0 +7,0 +8,0 +9,0 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..caeeae9 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 15:12:26,snowdrop_observed.csv,3.766,2.811,3.816,3.372,2.339,1.95,3.64,6.306,2.43,0.03351153967146288159049623581, +2026-05-21 15:12:26,snowdrop_observed.csv,1.982,2.675,4.839,6.635,2.205,1.04,2.87,11.976,2.84,0.01709988602810625481794234067, +2026-05-21 15:12:26,snowdrop_observed.csv,3.142,1.925,3.141,1.485,7.917,1.6,2.59,10.681,2.14,0.03715430762999619409491656741, +2026-05-21 15:12:26,snowdrop_observed.csv,4.52,0.519,7.647,4.55,4.17,1.88,3.26,4.466,3.25,0.03369392543363149611241208225, +2026-05-21 15:12:27,snowdrop_observed.csv,3.306,2.432,4.154,7.988,7.308,1.65,2.43,11.57,1.87,0.04826135270034708016121610854, +2026-05-21 15:12:27,snowdrop_observed.csv,2.538,1.923,4.266,5.293,3.809,1.18,3.58,10.969,3.08,0.01017221328151924698309528573, +2026-05-21 15:12:27,snowdrop_observed.csv,2.596,2.715,1.074,2.478,4.843,1.63,3.87,12.953,1.83,0.02491570178602622376163725388, +2026-05-21 15:12:28,snowdrop_observed.csv,2.895,1.749,7.817,6.703,1.982,1.37,3.34,3.507,2.59,0.002565855994882608603757275172, +2026-05-21 15:12:28,snowdrop_observed.csv,1.61,1.449,1.839,1.901,7.351,1.3,3.95,3.508,2.48,0.03839142790134345886409266165, +2026-05-21 15:12:28,snowdrop_observed.csv,1.638,2.673,7.369,7.236,9.117,1.88,2.59,9.514,2.43,0.06798111271387993851612951021, +2026-05-21 15:12:28,snowdrop_observed.csv,4.452,2.683,3.247,0.831,8.157,1.36,2.77,5.039,2.24,0.01006909000790885796784806042, +2026-05-21 15:12:29,snowdrop_observed.csv,2.977,1.295,1.611,2.763,7.056,1.31,3.05,12.941,1.44,0.009037691855520446079918919092, +2026-05-21 15:12:29,snowdrop_observed.csv,1.662,2.092,4.222,3.267,9.315,1.01,2.18,3.502,1.53,0.09315413010675401334785430624, +2026-05-21 15:12:29,snowdrop_observed.csv,2.413,2.873,1.417,4.222,7.157,1.75,2.27,7.318,2.16,0.04397547974809762963360973393, +2026-05-21 15:12:30,snowdrop_observed.csv,2.533,2.75,4.55,6.796,4.618,1.09,3.77,5.468,1.86,0.008586321283382378261695092725, +2026-05-21 15:12:30,snowdrop_observed.csv,2.14,2.615,5.268,1.17,8.406,1.26,3.96,11.413,1.76,0.02985842188827560486827305773, +2026-05-21 15:12:30,snowdrop_observed.csv,4.434,0.545,1.075,5.051,8.126,1.28,3.74,2.42,2.41,0.008679957986663801173685149708, +2026-05-21 15:12:30,snowdrop_observed.csv,3.61,1.543,2.338,5.5,7.589,1.47,3.88,2.487,1.49,0.02794367609750689713108201798, +2026-05-21 15:12:31,snowdrop_observed.csv,3.753,0.828,7.59,5.891,8.124,1.34,2.31,6.931,2.24,0.05677335613552134955296446442, 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15:12:33,snowdrop_observed.csv,4.399,1.785,7.553,2.848,6.487,1.58,3.44,14.69,1.78,0.001670052551491146215129308266, +2026-05-21 15:12:33,snowdrop_observed.csv,2.402,1.083,4.125,6.046,1.637,1.17,2.56,7.53,2.28,0.04489276580083147075708857368, +2026-05-21 15:12:34,snowdrop_observed.csv,4.264,1.535,7.979,7.525,9.073,1.85,3.47,1.251,2.8,0.03584734830556531914293100565, +2026-05-21 15:12:34,snowdrop_observed.csv,4.951,2.72,3.497,1.457,8.28,1.06,2.92,3.124,2.75,0.00844466571594742267031474005, +2026-05-21 15:12:34,snowdrop_observed.csv,1.807,2.105,2.214,2.135,7.862,1.96,2.17,4.314,2.06,0.01514264384869759462198294367, +2026-05-21 15:12:35,snowdrop_observed.csv,2.254,1.256,1.001,4.839,7.789,1.36,2.02,1.505,1.64,0.02173043141967330253102701791, +2026-05-21 15:12:35,snowdrop_observed.csv,1.663,0.701,7.567,0.662,6.676,1.33,3.0,5.351,1.98,0.007598321018391295309628566342, +2026-05-21 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100644 index 0000000..9b2be45 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..89e7d54 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,4,0.22599852,6.7585995270569885 +2,30,0.9784333999999999,29.26054345177464 +3,12,0.40943337,12.244311072671401 +4,0,0.00116327516,0.0347883293492946 +5,0,1.054715138e-06,3.1541787233237835e-05 +6,0,9.205424669999999e-10,2.7529285953297717e-08 +7,0,5.57988974e-13,1.6686941205541584e-11 +8,0,1.306364364e-16,3.9067484037924245e-15 +9,0,1.3177122000000002e-19,3.940684678694898e-18 +10,0,1.49431957e-21,4.468837910564194e-20 +11,0,5.5901801e-24,1.671771504522392e-22 +12,0,1.39955172e-26,4.1854298837372e-25 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d5c31d8 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/snowdrop_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..df4a48d --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "late", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "late_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 3.595, + "season_end_month": 9.77, + "forcing_peak_month": 8.385, + "season_width_months": 6.175, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.6825, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "October", + "forcing_peak_label": "August" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.99, + "DECAY": 1.821, + "OOS_DECAY": 5.118, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.477, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.764, + "SEASON_START": 3.595, + "SEASON_END": 9.77, + "SHARPNESS": 6.321, + "FORCING_PEAK": 8.385 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.09 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Speckled Wood Butterfly is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to October, with a summer peak around August. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..24a740a --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.99", + "DECAY": "1.821", + "OOS_DECAY": "5.118", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.477", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.764", + "SEASON_START": "3.595", + "SEASON_END": "9.77", + "SHARPNESS": "6.321", + "FORCING_PEAK": "8.385", + "SCORE": "0.09", + "SPECIES": "Speckled Wood Butterfly" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e1ce1c8 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,5 +5,5 +6,5 +7,1 +8,9 +9,2 +10,1 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0d59167 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 13:30:12,speckled_wood_butterfly_observed.csv,3.381,2.33,4.853,4.902,8.676,4.58,9.16,9.619,9.06,0.1129204562509424290572761094, +2026-05-21 13:30:12,speckled_wood_butterfly_observed.csv,2.148,1.439,5.545,7.626,6.376,4.53,9.57,3.81,8.42,0.1214575828788049460971581421, +2026-05-21 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"seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.08, + "season_end_month": 10.295, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.47, + "season_width_months": 6.215, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.1875, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "October", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.111, + "DECAY": 1.967, + "OOS_DECAY": 3.851, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 2.266, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 5.498, + "SEASON_START": 4.08, + "SEASON_END": 10.295, + "SHARPNESS": 8.176, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.47 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.045 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Swallow is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to October, with a spring peak around May. The season is very_broad, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swallow_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swallow_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..01974bf --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swallow_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.111", + "DECAY": "1.967", + "OOS_DECAY": "3.851", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "2.266", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "5.498", + "SEASON_START": "4.08", + "SEASON_END": "10.295", + "SHARPNESS": "8.176", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.47", + "SCORE": "0.045", + "SPECIES": "Swallow" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swallow_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swallow_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6dfe5fc --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swallow_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,23 +5,45 +6,33 +7,26 +8,29 +9,7 +10,3 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swallow_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swallow_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9ac5155 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swallow_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 11:01:15,swallow_observed.csv,2.8,2.048,1.399,6.068,9.087,3.72,9.01,11.794,4.11,0.1872303050404222257287197435, +2026-05-21 11:01:15,swallow_observed.csv,1.898,2.488,1.548,2.497,2.267,3.92,10.64,10.518,5.39,0.03322902329344633004348199378, +2026-05-21 11:01:16,swallow_observed.csv,3.707,0.829,6.35,0.71,6.809,4.05,9.94,4.948,4.09,0.03068978155766726509449244807, +2026-05-21 11:01:16,swallow_observed.csv,4.126,0.795,1.288,4.985,2.408,4.91,10.69,8.761,4.96,0.08894621306960866113243828074, +2026-05-21 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+1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Swift", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 5.11, + "season_end_month": 9.305, + "forcing_peak_month": 6.06, + "season_width_months": 4.195, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.2075, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_label": "September", + "forcing_peak_label": "June" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.546, + "DECAY": 1.848, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.081, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.803, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.355, + "SEASON_START": 5.11, + "SEASON_END": 9.305, + "SHARPNESS": 7.507, + "FORCING_PEAK": 6.06 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.029 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Swift is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to September, with a summer peak around June. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swift_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swift_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9476190 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swift_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.546", + "DECAY": "1.848", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.081", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.803", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.355", + "SEASON_START": "5.11", + "SEASON_END": "9.305", + "SHARPNESS": "7.507", + "FORCING_PEAK": "6.06", + "SCORE": "0.029", + "SPECIES": "Swift" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swift_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swift_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bd880b3 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/swift_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,2 +5,34 +6,54 +7,40 +8,7 +9,4 +10,0 +11,0 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/dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/teasel_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Teasel", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 5.46, + "season_end_month": 11.475, + "forcing_peak_month": 7.49, + "season_width_months": 6.015, + "season_midpoint_month": 8.4675, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_label": "November", + "forcing_peak_label": "July" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.01, + "DECAY": 1.826, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.501, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.619, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.697, + "SEASON_START": 5.46, + "SEASON_END": 11.475, + "SHARPNESS": 8.034, + "FORCING_PEAK": 7.49 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.052 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Teasel is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to November, with a summer peak around July. The season is very_broad, with a sharp active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/teasel_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/teasel_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7b6f18c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/teasel_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.01", + "DECAY": "1.826", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.501", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.619", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.697", + "SEASON_START": "5.46", + "SEASON_END": "11.475", + "SHARPNESS": "8.034", + "FORCING_PEAK": "7.49", + "SCORE": "0.052", + "SPECIES": "Teasel" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/teasel_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/teasel_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..447abe7 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/teasel_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,0 +5,3 +6,8 +7,22 +8,18 +9,2 +10,4 +11,1 +12,2 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/teasel_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/teasel_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..aa3fa8d --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/teasel_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 15:13:23,teasel_observed.csv,1.922,0.819,2.071,7.282,9.515,4.48,11.04,7.651,7.64,0.05683716529955895158065383387, +2026-05-21 15:13:23,teasel_observed.csv,4.802,2.627,6.713,1.501,1.872,4.39,11.81,14.987,6.43,0.1559510252603147804735689358, +2026-05-21 15:13:24,teasel_observed.csv,1.201,1.217,4.149,0.636,2.042,4.69,11.58,11.904,7.59,0.09020276178579889501887368510, +2026-05-21 15:13:24,teasel_observed.csv,3.026,0.682,4.583,1.566,3.792,4.66,11.25,8.343,7.45,0.04335877775461308595028813559, +2026-05-21 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b8451a7 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "White Campion", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "early", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.92, + "season_end_month": 11.245, + "forcing_peak_month": 6.045, + "season_width_months": 6.325, + "season_midpoint_month": 8.0825, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_label": "November", + "forcing_peak_label": "June" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 3.001, + "DECAY": 2.034, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.258, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 2.744, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 5.558, + "SEASON_START": 4.92, + "SEASON_END": 11.245, + "SHARPNESS": 6.904, + "FORCING_PEAK": 6.045 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.063 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "White Campion is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to November, with a summer peak around June. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fd1ccde --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "3.001", + "DECAY": "2.034", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.258", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "2.744", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "5.558", + "SEASON_START": "4.92", + "SEASON_END": "11.245", + "SHARPNESS": "6.904", + "FORCING_PEAK": "6.045", + "SCORE": "0.063", + "SPECIES": "White Campion" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..575f2a5 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3f97f89 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a3a3cad --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,7.32992905e-12,3.2163295079755355e-10 +2,0,1.670031837e-08,7.3280009123713e-07 +3,0,2.68764463e-05,0.0011793225652601631 +4,1,0.0285071619,1.250877401161283 +5,48,0.7400677,32.47373289935987 +6,53,1.307883,57.38913238020451 +7,27,0.7846409999999999,34.429582936651094 +8,16,0.44486689999999995,19.520496417241603 +9,10,0.2823816,12.39073756913574 +10,23,0.13190399,5.787869055249722 +11,4,0.0179219742,0.7864056264042042 +12,0,1.81585023e-05,0.000796784339517333 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dee289f Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_campion_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..670dd15 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "White Clover", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "summer", + "season_width": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 5.375, + "season_end_month": 8.3, + "forcing_peak_month": 6.305, + "season_width_months": 2.925, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.8375, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_label": "August", + "forcing_peak_label": "June" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.972, + "DECAY": 2.121, + "OOS_DECAY": 3.774, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 2.872, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 5.338, + "SEASON_START": 5.375, + "SEASON_END": 8.3, + "SHARPNESS": 6.984, + "FORCING_PEAK": 6.305 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.009 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "White Clover is classified as moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to August, with a summer peak around June. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..049d569 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.972", + "DECAY": "2.121", + "OOS_DECAY": "3.774", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "2.872", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "5.338", + "SEASON_START": "5.375", + "SEASON_END": "8.3", + "SHARPNESS": "6.984", + "FORCING_PEAK": "6.305", + "SCORE": "0.009", + "SPECIES": "White Clover" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e447439 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value 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+7,29,0.9026590000000001,32.17506693370641 +8,11,0.21214977,7.562028462265838 +9,1,0.00130193358,0.04640711506752827 +10,0,9.817979769999998e-07,3.499595708385175e-05 +11,2,4.6327611099999996e-10,1.6513367595306976e-08 +12,0,1.259250311e-13,4.488568002170876e-12 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4ac3805 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/white_clover_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2bc5329 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Whitethroat", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 4.395, + "season_end_month": 6.77, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.19, + "season_width_months": 2.375, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.5825, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_label": "July", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.702, + "DECAY": 1.888, + "OOS_DECAY": 3.599, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 4.627, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 6.37, + "SEASON_START": 4.395, + "SEASON_END": 6.77, + "SHARPNESS": 7.882, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.19 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.028 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Whitethroat is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to July, with a spring peak around May. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a5f24bf --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.702", + "DECAY": "1.888", + "OOS_DECAY": "3.599", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "4.627", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "6.37", + "SEASON_START": "4.395", + "SEASON_END": "6.77", + "SHARPNESS": "7.882", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.19", + "SCORE": "0.028", + "SPECIES": "Whitethroat" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7a5420f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,3 +5,24 +6,4 +7,4 +8,0 +9,0 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..495d5de --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 11:03:10,whitethroat_observed.csv,3.407,0.675,2.045,4.311,9.27,4.42,7.99,5.906,6.44,0.1050254300026422683707024232, +2026-05-21 11:03:10,whitethroat_observed.csv,4.131,1.312,4.351,4.084,8.655,3.68,7.86,1.797,5.16,0.04312314936855029799069916935, +2026-05-21 11:03:10,whitethroat_observed.csv,1.15,0.934,4.82,1.488,1.032,4.87,7.57,2.582,6.02,0.1240500337257563949819614077, +2026-05-21 11:03:11,whitethroat_observed.csv,2.84,2.056,1.142,7.847,3.003,4.99,7.86,2.658,5.49,0.03112684349336395744273360162, 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b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_simulated.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d50c49e Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_simulated.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_synthesised.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_synthesised.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f4bca7b --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_synthesised.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,observed,simulated_raw,synthesised +1,0,4.1041928599999997e-11,7.286461882101889e-10 +2,0,1.81811961e-07,3.227835456876399e-06 +3,0,0.0006422981589999999,0.011403170397060042 +4,3,0.27403438700000005,4.865124967009123 +5,24,1.1211759000000001,19.90502331920455 +6,4,0.6086666000000001,10.806085705749604 +7,4,0.0169100648,0.3002162588165336 +8,0,8.568177770000001e-06,0.0001521168786404881 +9,0,2.1260080619999997e-09,3.774451453240019e-08 +10,0,3.574273273e-13,6.345658415265131e-12 +11,0,3.065510967e-17,5.442416955574258e-16 +12,0,8.253805599999999e-21,1.4653560867673046e-19 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_synthesised.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_synthesised.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b8d335c Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/whitethroat_synthesised.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_classification.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c902b74 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Winter Aconite", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "narrow_winter_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "winter", + "season_width": "narrow", + "window_shape": "sharp", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "winter_peak", + "narrow_season", + "sharp_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 1.505, + "season_end_month": 2.945, + "forcing_peak_month": 2.355, + "season_width_months": 1.44, + "season_midpoint_month": 2.225, + "season_start_label": "February", + "season_end_label": "March", + "forcing_peak_label": "February" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.785, + "DECAY": 2.006, + "OOS_DECAY": 4.09, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.49, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.415, + "SEASON_START": 1.505, + "SEASON_END": 2.945, + "SHARPNESS": 8.593, + "FORCING_PEAK": 2.355 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.004 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Winter Aconite is classified as narrow winter seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about February to March, with a winter peak around February. The season is narrow, with a sharp active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b183ddb --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.785", + "DECAY": "2.006", + "OOS_DECAY": "4.09", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.49", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.415", + "SEASON_START": "1.505", + "SEASON_END": "2.945", + "SHARPNESS": "8.593", + "FORCING_PEAK": "2.355", + "SCORE": "0.004", + "SPECIES": "Winter Aconite" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7797a88 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,1 +2,19 +3,4 +4,0 +5,0 +6,0 +7,0 +8,0 +9,0 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c08eb0f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/winter_aconite_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 15:16:16,winter_aconite_observed.csv,4.477,1.186,6.506,5.876,6.128,1.63,2.78,8.344,2.78,0.006398912361886047633331400478, +2026-05-21 15:16:17,winter_aconite_observed.csv,1.837,2.926,3.267,0.318,8.582,1.46,3.84,14.881,2.37,0.06176872777124059719932192753, +2026-05-21 15:16:17,winter_aconite_observed.csv,4.89,1.753,2.2,6.575,2.554,1.54,2.93,4.853,2.5,0.002595587930306245868008430759, +2026-05-21 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15:16:29,winter_aconite_observed.csv,3.28,1.369,1.611,7.615,5.857,1.74,3.87,4.85,2.4,0.01584872604227619682476122126, +2026-05-21 15:16:29,winter_aconite_observed.csv,4.915,1.25,4.199,0.991,2.254,1.19,4.0,5.939,2.03,0.05777092854100176258023671402, +2026-05-21 15:16:30,winter_aconite_observed.csv,3.561,1.622,2.067,4.33,7.289,1.37,3.24,12.034,1.53,0.00612584749188628877996674563, +2026-05-21 15:16:30,winter_aconite_observed.csv,1.448,2.828,1.603,1.764,1.572,1.99,2.06,14.197,2.01,0.07165413003595500924701765286, +2026-05-21 15:16:30,winter_aconite_observed.csv,4.754,0.545,7.778,2.978,7.927,1.9,2.86,10.791,2.63,0.03264879720336719325275218555, +2026-05-21 15:16:31,winter_aconite_observed.csv,1.617,2.155,2.563,4.79,9.672,1.88,2.45,10.867,1.93,0.05664023892088242930637922156, +2026-05-21 15:16:31,winter_aconite_observed.csv,3.272,2.885,7.868,0.206,7.282,1.34,3.18,14.96,2.92,0.003641581189553473361902547109, +2026-05-21 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"schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "species": "Yellow Flag Iris", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "narrow_spring_seasonal_presence", + "timing": "spring", + "season_width": "narrow", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "peak_alignment": "central", + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "narrow_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "season_start_month": 5.115, + "season_end_month": 5.885, + "forcing_peak_month": 5.45, + "season_width_months": 0.77, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.5, + "season_start_label": "May", + "season_end_label": "June", + "forcing_peak_label": "May" + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "GROWTH": 2.878, + "DECAY": 1.44, + "OOS_DECAY": 3.418, + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": 3.907, + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": 4.342, + "SEASON_START": 5.115, + "SEASON_END": 5.885, + "SHARPNESS": 7.479, + "FORCING_PEAK": 5.45 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.018 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Yellow Flag Iris is classified as narrow spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about May to June, with a spring peak around May. The season is narrow, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/yellow_flag_iris_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/yellow_flag_iris_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b71ae7d --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/yellow_flag_iris_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "GROWTH": "2.878", + "DECAY": "1.44", + "OOS_DECAY": "3.418", + "POST_PEAK_DECAY": "3.907", + "POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS": "4.342", + "SEASON_START": "5.115", + "SEASON_END": "5.885", + "SHARPNESS": "7.479", + "FORCING_PEAK": "5.45", + "SCORE": "0.018", + "SPECIES": "Yellow Flag Iris" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/yellow_flag_iris_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/yellow_flag_iris_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..28d2ca2 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/yellow_flag_iris_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,0 +2,0 +3,0 +4,0 +5,17 +6,6 +7,0 +8,0 +9,0 +10,0 +11,0 +12,0 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/yellow_flag_iris_parameters.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/yellow_flag_iris_parameters.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1933fc8 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/seasonal/yellow_flag_iris_parameters.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +TIMESTAMP,OBSERVED,GROWTH,DECAY,OOS_DECAY,POST_PEAK_DECAY,POST_PEAK_SHARPNESS,SEASON_START,SEASON_END,SHARPNESS,FORCING_PEAK,SCORE,WRAPS_YEAR +2026-05-21 15:17:14,yellow_flag_iris_observed.csv,2.607,2.313,4.518,4.611,1.09,5.02,5.58,4.833,5.04,0.03465153883186500584020155091, +2026-05-21 15:17:14,yellow_flag_iris_observed.csv,3.398,1.269,1.657,7.069,2.782,4.64,6.07,14.973,5.06,0.02576648323715926218181021698, +2026-05-21 15:17:15,yellow_flag_iris_observed.csv,3.322,0.922,5.717,0.811,8.587,4.74,6.43,13.503,4.97,0.01075099048616156476374811547, +2026-05-21 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/dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/redwing_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,82 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "winter-classification/v1", + "species": "Redwing", + "model_family": "winter_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "winter_timing": "core_winter", + "autumn_component": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "baseline_presence": "low", + "winter_bump_shape": "moderate", + "autumn_bump_shape": "moderate", + "response_dynamics": "slow_arrival_fast_departure", + "traits": [ + "year_wrapping_winter_presence", + "core_winter_winter_peak", + "moderate_autumn_component", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "low_baseline_presence", + "moderate_winter_bump", + "slow_arrival_fast_departure_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "winter_peak_month": 1.62, + "winter_peak_label": "February", + "autumn_peak_month": 11.65, + "autumn_peak_label": "December", + "summer_low_month": 6.32, + "summer_low_label": "June", + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.23686723973256923, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 2.658008658008658, + "target_peak_month": 1, + "target_peak_label": "January", + "target_trough_month": 5, + "target_trough_label": "May", + "active_months_ge_0_10": [ + 1, + 2, + 3, + 4, + 10, + 11, + 12 + ], + "monthly_target": { + "January": 1.1289330611294266, + "February": 1.0770743597963044, + "March": 0.7094479592944527, + "April": 0.2511955608723617, + "May": 0.0, + "June": 0.0, + "July": 0.0, + "August": 0.0, + "September": 0.0026649896423755694, + "October": 0.16727450872549796, + "November": 0.46154582479004663, + "December": 0.8530761677206015 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.971, + "GROWTH_RATE": 0.924, + "DECAY_RATE": 2.456, + "BASELINE": 0.0, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 1.047, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.248, + "WINTER_PEAK": 1.62, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 11.65, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 2.892, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 3.48, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.228, + "SUMMER_LOW": 6.32, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 3.244 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.128 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Redwing is classified as winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The fitted winter component peaks around February, with a moderate autumn component centred around December. The model has low baseline presence and moderate summer suppression centred around June. The fitted response dynamics suggest slow arrival fast departure." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/redwing_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/redwing_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..46620d8 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/redwing_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.128", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.971", + "GROWTH_RATE": "0.924", + "DECAY_RATE": "2.456", + "BASELINE": "0", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "1.047", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.248", + "WINTER_PEAK": "1.62", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "11.65", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "2.892", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "3.48", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.228", + "SUMMER_LOW": "6.32", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "3.244", + "SPECIES": "Redwing" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/redwing_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/redwing_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..47a5787 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/redwing_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value 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"winter-classification/v1", + "species": "Snowberry", + "model_family": "winter_presence", + "classification": { + "primary_class": "winter_visitor_with_autumn_arrival_component", + "winter_timing": "atypical", + "autumn_component": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": "moderate", + "baseline_presence": "low", + "winter_bump_shape": "moderate", + "autumn_bump_shape": "moderate", + "response_dynamics": "balanced", + "traits": [ + "year_wrapping_winter_presence", + "atypical_winter_peak", + "moderate_autumn_component", + "moderate_summer_suppression", + "low_baseline_presence", + "moderate_winter_bump", + "balanced_response_dynamics" + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + "derived_metrics": { + "winter_peak_month": 8.56, + "winter_peak_label": "September", + "autumn_peak_month": 9.865, + "autumn_peak_label": "October", + "summer_low_month": 6.54, + "summer_low_label": "July", + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.452991452991453, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 1.4097560975609755, + "target_peak_month": 9, + "target_peak_label": "September", + "target_trough_month": 3, + "target_trough_label": "March", + "active_months_ge_0_10": [ + 7, + 8, + 9, + 10, + 11, + 12 + ], + "monthly_target": { + "January": 0.03040700561206541, + "February": 0.0010285149373122626, + "March": 0.0, + "April": 0.0, + "May": 0.0, + "June": 0.0, + "July": 0.36767574572901796, + "August": 0.894610302956173, + "September": 1.1841584093532311, + "October": 1.003791442139665, + "November": 0.5473905504411365, + "December": 0.17940148246807067 + } + }, + "parameter_evidence": { + "INITIAL_Y": 0.558, + "GROWTH_RATE": 1.23, + "DECAY_RATE": 1.734, + "BASELINE": 0.0, + "WINTER_WEIGHT": 0.936, + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": 0.424, + "WINTER_PEAK": 8.56, + "AUTUMN_PEAK": 9.865, + "WINTER_WIDTH": 3.09, + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": 3.579, + "SUMMER_DIP": 0.238, + "SUMMER_LOW": 6.54, + "SUMMER_WIDTH": 2.852 + }, + "fit": { + "score": 0.145 + }, + "warnings": [], + "summary": "Snowberry is classified as winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The fitted winter component peaks around September, with a moderate autumn component centred around October. The model has low baseline presence and moderate summer suppression centred around July. The fitted response dynamics suggest balanced." +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/snowberry_consensus.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/snowberry_consensus.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1b213c1 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/snowberry_consensus.json @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +{ + "SCORE": "0.145", + "INITIAL_Y": "0.558", + "GROWTH_RATE": "1.23", + "DECAY_RATE": "1.734", + "BASELINE": "0", + "WINTER_WEIGHT": "0.936", + "AUTUMN_WEIGHT": "0.424", + "WINTER_PEAK": "8.56", + "AUTUMN_PEAK": "9.865", + "WINTER_WIDTH": "3.09", + "AUTUMN_WIDTH": "3.579", + "SUMMER_DIP": "0.238", + "SUMMER_LOW": "6.54", + "SUMMER_WIDTH": "2.852", + "SPECIES": "Snowberry" +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/snowberry_observed.csv b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/snowberry_observed.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..47a7fb6 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-all/winter/snowberry_observed.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +month,value +1,7 +2,2 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a/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/calendar_activity.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/calendar_activity.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f3f77e2 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/calendar_activity.json @@ -0,0 +1,265 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-ecological-calendar-activity/v1", + "source_cluster_schema_version": "seasonal-ecological-calendar-clusters/v1", + "n_clusters": 3, + "normalisation": { + "method": "species_max", + "description": "Each species is normalised to its own maximum synthesised value before cluster-level monthly aggregation.", + "value_column": "synthesised" + }, + "clusters": [ + { + "cluster_id": 1, + "calendar_label": "Moderate Summer Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from May to July, with a mean peak around June, and and an average width of 2.4 months. It is characterised by moderate season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include moderate season, moderate seasonal window, and strong post peak decline. Compared with the full species set, season width months is lower than the whole-set average and fit score is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Orange Tip Butterfly" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 3.3e-05, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.035342, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.500001, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.430937, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.249297, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.500162, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.315522, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.003425, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 2e-06, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 2, + "calendar_label": "Extended Spring Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from February to September, with a mean peak around April, and and an average width of 6.3 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, moderate seasonal window, and strong post peak decline. Compared with the full species set, peak month is lower than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Peacock Butterfly" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.000819, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.165306, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.781946, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 1.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.506474, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.238281, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.152449, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.051184, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.003482, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 2e-06, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 3, + "calendar_label": "Extended Summer Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 3 species, mainly representing extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to October, with a mean peak around August, and and an average width of 6.6 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak and moderate seasonal window. Compared with the full species set, peak month is higher than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is higher than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 3, + "species": [ + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 3 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.00081, + "n_species_contributing": 3 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.0389, + "n_species_contributing": 3 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.199705, + "n_species_contributing": 3 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.552752, + "n_species_contributing": 3 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.835859, + "n_species_contributing": 3 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.925369, + "n_species_contributing": 3 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.730979, + "n_species_contributing": 3 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.3531, + "n_species_contributing": 3 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.088504, + "n_species_contributing": 3 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.037575, + "n_species_contributing": 3 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.00087, + "n_species_contributing": 3 + } + ] + } + ] +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/cluster_analysis.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/cluster_analysis.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..694ccfa --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/cluster_analysis.json @@ -0,0 +1,1018 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "species-similarity-clusters/v2", + "created_utc": "2026-05-25T07:37:27.609942+00:00", + "source_similarity_schema_version": "species-similarity/v1", + "source_feature_schema_version": "species-feature-table/v1", + "n_species": 7, + "n_clusters": 3, + "method": { + "description": "Hierarchical clustering over pairwise species similarity, followed by cluster-level summaries from the species feature matrix.", + "linkage_method": "average", + "cluster_cut": { + "criterion": "maxclust", + "n_clusters_requested": 3 + }, + "distance_definition": "distance = 1 - similarity", + "cluster_caveat": "Clusters should be interpreted as exploratory seasonal assemblages rather than fixed ecological categories." + }, + "species_order": [ + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ], + "linkage": { + "format": "scipy.cluster.hierarchy.linkage", + "columns": [ + "left_child", + "right_child", + "distance", + "n_leaves" + ], + "node_id_convention": "Leaf nodes are 0..n_species-1 in species_input_order; internal nodes are n_species..2*n_species-2 in linkage row order.", + "species_input_order": [ + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ], + "leaf_order_indices": [ + 1, + 3, + 0, + 4, + 5, + 2, + 6 + ], + "leaf_order_species": [ + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ], + "matrix": [ + [ + 0, + 4, + 0.136882, + 2 + ], + [ + 1, + 3, + 0.283202, + 2 + ], + [ + 2, + 6, + 0.285861, + 2 + ], + [ + 5, + 9, + 0.333906, + 3 + ], + [ + 7, + 10, + 0.413745, + 5 + ], + [ + 8, + 11, + 0.45889, + 7 + ] + ], + "merges": [ + { + "node_id": 7, + "left_child": 0, + "right_child": 4, + "distance": 0.136882, + "n_leaves": 2, + "species": [ + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Peacock Butterfly" + ], + "left_species": [ + "Brimstone Butterfly" + ], + "right_species": [ + "Peacock Butterfly" + ] + }, + { + "node_id": 8, + "left_child": 1, + "right_child": 3, + "distance": 0.283202, + "n_leaves": 2, + "species": [ + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Orange Tip Butterfly" + ], + "left_species": [ + "Gatekeeper Butterfly" + ], + "right_species": [ + "Orange Tip Butterfly" + ] + }, + { + "node_id": 9, + "left_child": 2, + "right_child": 6, + "distance": 0.285861, + "n_leaves": 2, + "species": [ + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ], + "left_species": [ + "Meadow Brown Butterfly" + ], + "right_species": [ + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ] + }, + { + "node_id": 10, + "left_child": 5, + "right_child": 9, + "distance": 0.333906, + "n_leaves": 3, + "species": [ + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ], + "left_species": [ + "Red Admiral Butterfly" + ], + "right_species": [ + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ] + }, + { + "node_id": 11, + "left_child": 7, + "right_child": 10, + "distance": 0.413745, + "n_leaves": 5, + "species": [ + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ], + "left_species": [ + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Peacock Butterfly" + ], + "right_species": [ + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ] + }, + { + "node_id": 12, + "left_child": 8, + "right_child": 11, + "distance": 0.45889, + "n_leaves": 7, + "species": [ + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ], + "left_species": [ + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Orange Tip Butterfly" + ], + "right_species": [ + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Peacock Butterfly", + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ] + } + ] + }, + "species_cluster_ids": { + "Brimstone Butterfly": 2, + "Gatekeeper Butterfly": 1, + "Meadow Brown Butterfly": 3, + "Orange Tip Butterfly": 1, + "Peacock Butterfly": 2, + "Red Admiral Butterfly": 3, + "Speckled Wood Butterfly": 3 + }, + "clusters": [ + { + "cluster_id": 1, + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Orange Tip Butterfly" + ], + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from May to July, with a mean peak around June, and and an average width of 2.4 months. It is characterised by moderate season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include moderate season, moderate seasonal window, and strong post peak decline. Compared with the full species set, season width months is lower than the whole-set average and fit score is lower than the whole-set average.", + "dominant_model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 5.885, + "min": 4.295, + "max": 7.475 + }, + "season_start_month": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 4.95, + "min": 3.775, + "max": 6.125 + }, + "season_end_month": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 7.38, + "min": 6.2, + "max": 8.56 + }, + "season_width_months": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 2.43, + "min": 2.425, + "max": 2.435 + }, + "season_midpoint_month": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 6.165, + "min": 4.9875, + "max": 7.3425 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 0.0375, + "min": 0.037, + "max": 0.038 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "seasonal_presence", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 0.5, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "value": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "high", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "high", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "summer", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 0.5, + "values": [ + { + "value": "summer", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "value": "spring", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + } + ] + }, + "season_width_class": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "window_shape": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "post_peak_decline": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "offseason_suppression": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "moderate_season", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_seasonal_window", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_post_peak_decline", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_offseason_suppression", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "central_peak_alignment", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "summer_peak", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "trait": "spring_peak", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "season_width_months", + "cluster_mean": 2.43, + "global_mean": 5.315714, + "difference": -2.885714, + "scaled_difference": -0.454443, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.0375, + "global_mean": 0.059714, + "difference": -0.022214, + "scaled_difference": -0.419132, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_start_month", + "cluster_mean": 4.95, + "global_mean": 3.585788, + "difference": 1.364212, + "scaled_difference": 0.355727, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_end_month", + "cluster_mean": 7.38, + "global_mean": 9.001047, + "difference": -1.621047, + "scaled_difference": -0.298535, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_midpoint_month", + "cluster_mean": 6.165, + "global_mean": 6.331547, + "difference": -0.166547, + "scaled_difference": -0.070721, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 5.885, + "global_mean": 6.125892, + "difference": -0.240892, + "scaled_difference": -0.056547, + "direction": "lower" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "seasonal_presence", + "summer", + "moderate", + "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "mean_peak_month_5.885", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 2, + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Peacock Butterfly" + ], + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from February to September, with a mean peak around April, and and an average width of 6.3 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, moderate seasonal window, and strong post peak decline. Compared with the full species set, peak month is lower than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "dominant_model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 4.135, + "min": 4.125, + "max": 4.145 + }, + "season_start_month": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 2.41, + "min": 2.29, + "max": 2.53 + }, + "season_end_month": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 8.685, + "min": 8.25, + "max": 9.12 + }, + "season_width_months": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 6.275, + "min": 5.72, + "max": 6.83 + }, + "season_midpoint_month": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 5.5475, + "min": 5.39, + "max": 5.705 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 2, + "mean": 0.0615, + "min": 0.053, + "max": 0.07 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "seasonal_presence", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "high", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "high", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "spring", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "spring", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "season_width_class": { + "dominant": "very_broad", + "dominant_count": 1, + "dominant_fraction": 0.5, + "values": [ + { + "value": "very_broad", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "value": "broad", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + } + ] + }, + "window_shape": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "post_peak_decline": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "offseason_suppression": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "spring_peak", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_seasonal_window", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_post_peak_decline", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_offseason_suppression", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "early_peak_alignment", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "very_broad_season", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + }, + { + "trait": "broad_season", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.5 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 4.135, + "global_mean": 6.125892, + "difference": -1.990892, + "scaled_difference": -0.467346, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_midpoint_month", + "cluster_mean": 5.5475, + "global_mean": 6.331547, + "difference": -0.784047, + "scaled_difference": -0.332929, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_start_month", + "cluster_mean": 2.41, + "global_mean": 3.585788, + "difference": -1.175788, + "scaled_difference": -0.306594, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "season_width_months", + "cluster_mean": 6.275, + "global_mean": 5.315714, + "difference": 0.959286, + "scaled_difference": 0.151069, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_end_month", + "cluster_mean": 8.685, + "global_mean": 9.001047, + "difference": -0.316047, + "scaled_difference": -0.058204, + "direction": "lower" + }, + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.0615, + "global_mean": 0.059714, + "difference": 0.001786, + "scaled_difference": 0.033698, + "direction": "higher" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "seasonal_presence", + "spring", + "very_broad", + "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "mean_peak_month_4.135", + "spring_peak", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 3, + "n_species": 3, + "species": [ + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ], + "description": "Cluster of 3 species, mainly representing extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to October, with a mean peak around August, and and an average width of 6.6 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak and moderate seasonal window. Compared with the full species set, peak month is higher than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is higher than the whole-set average.", + "dominant_model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "numeric_summary": { + "peak_month": { + "n": 3, + "mean": 7.550959, + "min": 6.64, + "max": 8.385 + }, + "season_start_month": { + "n": 3, + "mean": 3.641808, + "min": 2.855, + "max": 4.48 + }, + "season_end_month": { + "n": 3, + "mean": 10.212851, + "min": 9.33, + "max": 11.63 + }, + "season_width_months": { + "n": 3, + "mean": 6.6, + "min": 4.85, + "max": 8.775 + }, + "season_midpoint_month": { + "n": 3, + "mean": 6.943196, + "min": 6.6825, + "max": 7.2425 + }, + "fit_score": { + "n": 3, + "mean": 0.073333, + "min": 0.054, + "max": 0.09 + } + }, + "categorical_summary": { + "model_family": { + "dominant": "seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 3, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "seasonal_presence", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "primary_class": { + "dominant": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "dominant_count": 3, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "confidence": { + "dominant": "medium", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 0.666667, + "values": [ + { + "value": "medium", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "value": "high", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.333333 + } + ] + }, + "timing": { + "dominant": "summer", + "dominant_count": 3, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "summer", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "season_width_class": { + "dominant": "very_broad", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 0.666667, + "values": [ + { + "value": "very_broad", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "value": "broad", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.333333 + } + ] + }, + "window_shape": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 3, + "dominant_fraction": 1.0, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + "post_peak_decline": { + "dominant": "moderate", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 0.666667, + "values": [ + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.333333 + } + ] + }, + "offseason_suppression": { + "dominant": "strong", + "dominant_count": 2, + "dominant_fraction": 0.666667, + "values": [ + { + "value": "strong", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "value": "moderate", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.333333 + } + ] + } + }, + "common_traits": [ + { + "trait": "summer_peak", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_seasonal_window", + "count": 3, + "fraction": 1.0 + }, + { + "trait": "very_broad_season", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "trait": "central_peak_alignment", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_offseason_suppression", + "count": 2, + "fraction": 0.666667 + }, + { + "trait": "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.333333 + }, + { + "trait": "broad_season", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.333333 + }, + { + "trait": "strong_post_peak_decline", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.333333 + }, + { + "trait": "late_peak_alignment", + "count": 1, + "fraction": 0.333333 + } + ], + "distinguishing_numeric_features": [ + { + "feature": "peak_month", + "cluster_mean": 7.550959, + "global_mean": 6.125892, + "difference": 1.425067, + "scaled_difference": 0.334523, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_midpoint_month", + "cluster_mean": 6.943196, + "global_mean": 6.331547, + "difference": 0.611649, + "scaled_difference": 0.259724, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "fit_score", + "cluster_mean": 0.073333, + "global_mean": 0.059714, + "difference": 0.013619, + "scaled_difference": 0.256962, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_end_month", + "cluster_mean": 10.212851, + "global_mean": 9.001047, + "difference": 1.211804, + "scaled_difference": 0.223168, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_width_months", + "cluster_mean": 6.6, + "global_mean": 5.315714, + "difference": 1.284286, + "scaled_difference": 0.20225, + "direction": "higher" + }, + { + "feature": "season_start_month", + "cluster_mean": 3.641808, + "global_mean": 3.585788, + "difference": 0.05602, + "scaled_difference": 0.014608, + "direction": "higher" + } + ], + "suggested_label_terms": [ + "seasonal_presence", + "summer", + "very_broad", + "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "mean_peak_month_7.550959", + "summer_peak", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "very_broad_season" + ] + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/cluster_dendrogram.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/cluster_dendrogram.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..119a03b Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/cluster_dendrogram.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/cluster_summary.txt b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/cluster_summary.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d99b12c --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/cluster_summary.txt @@ -0,0 +1,70 @@ + +Species clusters +================ + +Cluster 1 +--------- +Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from May to July, with a mean peak around June, and and an average width of 2.4 months. It is characterised by moderate season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include moderate season, moderate seasonal window, and strong post peak decline. Compared with the full species set, season width months is lower than the whole-set average and fit score is lower than the whole-set average. + +Species (2): + Gatekeeper Butterfly + Orange Tip Butterfly + +Dominant model family : seasonal_presence +Dominant class : moderate_summer_seasonal_presence +Common traits : moderate_season (2, 100%), moderate_seasonal_window (2, 100%), strong_post_peak_decline (2, 100%), strong_offseason_suppression (2, 100%), central_peak_alignment (2, 100%) + +Peak month mean/range : 5.88 (4.29 - 7.47) +Season width mean : 2.43 months + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - season_width_months (lower, scaled_difference=-0.45) + - fit_score (lower, scaled_difference=-0.42) + - season_start_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.36) + - season_end_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.30) + - season_midpoint_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.07) + +Cluster 2 +--------- +Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from February to September, with a mean peak around April, and and an average width of 6.3 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, moderate seasonal window, and strong post peak decline. Compared with the full species set, peak month is lower than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is lower than the whole-set average. + +Species (2): + Brimstone Butterfly + Peacock Butterfly + +Dominant model family : seasonal_presence +Dominant class : extended_spring_seasonal_presence +Common traits : spring_peak (2, 100%), moderate_seasonal_window (2, 100%), strong_post_peak_decline (2, 100%), strong_offseason_suppression (2, 100%), early_peak_alignment (2, 100%) + +Peak month mean/range : 4.13 (4.12 - 4.14) +Season width mean : 6.28 months + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - peak_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.47) + - season_midpoint_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.33) + - season_start_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.31) + - season_width_months (higher, scaled_difference=0.15) + - season_end_month (lower, scaled_difference=-0.06) + +Cluster 3 +--------- +Cluster of 3 species, mainly representing extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to October, with a mean peak around August, and and an average width of 6.6 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak and moderate seasonal window. Compared with the full species set, peak month is higher than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is higher than the whole-set average. + +Species (3): + Red Admiral Butterfly + Meadow Brown Butterfly + Speckled Wood Butterfly + +Dominant model family : seasonal_presence +Dominant class : extended_summer_seasonal_presence +Common traits : summer_peak (3, 100%), moderate_seasonal_window (3, 100%), very_broad_season (2, 67%), moderate_post_peak_decline (2, 67%), central_peak_alignment (2, 67%) + +Peak month mean/range : 7.55 (6.64 - 8.38) +Season width mean : 6.60 months + +Distinguishing numeric features: + - peak_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.33) + - season_midpoint_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.26) + - fit_score (higher, scaled_difference=0.26) + - season_end_month (higher, scaled_difference=0.22) + - season_width_months (higher, scaled_difference=0.20) diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/extracted_clusters.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/extracted_clusters.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..958ca7b --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/extracted_clusters.json @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-ecological-calendar-clusters/v1", + "source_schema_version": "species-similarity-clusters/v2", + "source_created_utc": "2026-05-25T07:37:27.609942+00:00", + "n_species": 7, + "n_clusters": 3, + "cluster_caveat": "Clusters should be interpreted as exploratory seasonal assemblages rather than fixed ecological categories.", + "clusters": [ + { + "cluster_id": 1, + "calendar_label": "Moderate Summer Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from May to July, with a mean peak around June, and and an average width of 2.4 months. It is characterised by moderate season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include moderate season, moderate seasonal window, and strong post peak decline. Compared with the full species set, season width months is lower than the whole-set average and fit score is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "Orange Tip Butterfly" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 2, + "calendar_label": "Extended Spring Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from February to September, with a mean peak around April, and and an average width of 6.3 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, moderate seasonal window, and strong post peak decline. Compared with the full species set, peak month is lower than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Brimstone Butterfly", + "Peacock Butterfly" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 3, + "calendar_label": "Extended Summer Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 3 species, mainly representing extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to October, with a mean peak around August, and and an average width of 6.6 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak and moderate seasonal window. Compared with the full species set, peak month is higher than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is higher than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 3, + "species": [ + "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "Speckled Wood Butterfly" + ] + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/feature_matrix.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/feature_matrix.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7054e3b --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/feature_matrix.json @@ -0,0 +1,339 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "species-feature-table/v1", + "created_utc": "2026-05-25T07:37:27.412086+00:00", + "description": "Whole-set seasonal ecology feature table compiled from per-species classification JSON files.", + "n_species": 7, + "source_files": [ + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/brimstone_butterfly_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/meadow_brown_butterfly_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/orange_tip_butterfly_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_classification.json", + "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_classification.json" + ], + "features": [ + { + "species": "Brimstone Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.053, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.145, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 2.29, + "season_start_label": "February", + "season_end_month": 9.12, + "season_end_label": "September", + "season_width_months": 6.83, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.705, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/brimstone_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Brimstone Butterfly is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about February to September, with a spring peak around April. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.037, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 7.475, + "peak_label": "July", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 6.125, + "season_start_label": "June", + "season_end_month": 8.56, + "season_end_label": "September", + "season_width_months": 2.435, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.3425, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/gatekeeper_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Gatekeeper Butterfly is classified as moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about June to September, with a summer peak around July. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.054, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 6.64, + "peak_label": "July", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 4.48, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 9.33, + "season_end_label": "September", + "season_width_months": 4.85, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.905, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/meadow_brown_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Meadow Brown Butterfly is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to September, with a summer peak around July. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.038, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.295, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 3.775, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 6.2, + "season_end_label": "June", + "season_width_months": 2.425, + "season_midpoint_month": 4.9875, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "moderate", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "moderate_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/orange_tip_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Orange Tip Butterfly is classified as moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to June, with a spring peak around April. The season is moderate, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Peacock Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "high", + "fit_score": 0.07, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 4.125, + "peak_label": "April", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 2.53, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_month": 8.25, + "season_end_label": "August", + "season_width_months": 5.72, + "season_midpoint_month": 5.39, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "spring", + "season_width_class": "broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "spring_peak", + "broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "early_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/peacock_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Peacock Butterfly is classified as extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to August, with a spring peak around April. The season is broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.076, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 7.62, + "peak_label": "August", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 2.855, + "season_start_label": "March", + "season_end_month": 11.63, + "season_end_label": "December", + "season_width_months": 8.775, + "season_midpoint_month": 7.2425, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "moderate", + "offseason_suppression": "moderate", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "moderate_post_peak_decline", + "moderate_offseason_suppression", + "central_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/red_admiral_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Red Admiral Butterfly is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about March to December, with a summer peak around August. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, moderate post-peak decline, and moderate off-season suppression." + }, + { + "species": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "schema_version": "seasonal-classification/v1", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "confidence": "medium", + "fit_score": 0.09, + "n_warnings": 0, + "peak_month": 8.385, + "peak_label": "August", + "trough_month": null, + "trough_label": null, + "season_start_month": 3.595, + "season_start_label": "April", + "season_end_month": 9.77, + "season_end_label": "October", + "season_width_months": 6.175, + "season_midpoint_month": 6.6825, + "baseline_presence": null, + "timing": "summer", + "season_width_class": "very_broad", + "window_shape": "moderate", + "post_peak_decline": "strong", + "offseason_suppression": "strong", + "summer_suppression": null, + "autumn_component": null, + "response_dynamics": null, + "target_mean_value": null, + "target_amplitude": null, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": null, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": null, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": null, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": null, + "traits": [ + "summer_peak", + "very_broad_season", + "moderate_seasonal_window", + "strong_post_peak_decline", + "strong_offseason_suppression", + "late_peak_alignment" + ], + "trait_count": 6, + "source_file": "/Users/dave/Dropbox/Development/Projects/OdeSolver/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/seasonal/speckled_wood_butterfly_classification.json", + "summary": "Speckled Wood Butterfly is classified as extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted seasonal window runs from about April to October, with a summer peak around August. The season is very_broad, with a moderate active window, strong post-peak decline, and strong off-season suppression." + } + ] +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/species_similarity.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/species_similarity.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1fb0f74 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/species_similarity.json @@ -0,0 +1,1024 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "species-similarity/v1", + "created_utc": "2026-05-25T07:37:27.412808+00:00", + "source_feature_schema_version": "species-feature-table/v1", + "source_feature_created_utc": "2026-05-25T07:37:27.412086+00:00", + "n_species": 7, + "top_n": 5, + "method": { + "description": "Weighted mixed-feature similarity using circular month distance, min-max scaled numeric distance, categorical exact-match distance, and Jaccard trait distance.", + "distance_range": "0 means identical on compared features; 1 means maximally different", + "similarity_range": "1 means most similar; 0 means least similar", + "component_weights": { + "circular_month": 0.4, + "numeric": 0.25, + "categorical": 0.2, + "traits": 0.15 + }, + "circular_month_features": { + "peak_month": 2.0, + "trough_month": 1.25, + "season_start_month": 1.25, + "season_end_month": 1.25, + "season_midpoint_month": 1.5 + }, + "numeric_features": { + "season_width_months": 1.5, + "target_mean_value": 1.0, + "target_amplitude": 1.0, + "baseline_to_peak_ratio": 1.0, + "autumn_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.75, + "year_end_to_winter_weight_ratio": 0.75, + "decay_to_growth_ratio": 0.75, + "active_month_count_ge_0_10": 1.0, + "fit_score": 0.25 + }, + "categorical_features": { + "model_family": 1.0, + "primary_class": 1.0, + "confidence": 0.25, + "baseline_presence": 0.75, + "timing": 1.0, + "season_width_class": 0.75, + "window_shape": 0.75, + "post_peak_decline": 0.75, + "offseason_suppression": 0.75, + "summer_suppression": 0.75, + "autumn_component": 0.75, + "response_dynamics": 0.75 + }, + "missing_value_policy": "Missing feature values are skipped for that pair/component. Component weights are renormalised over available components." + }, + "species": [ + { + "species": "Brimstone Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Peacock Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence" + }, + { + "species": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence" + } + ], + "nearest_neighbours": { + "Brimstone Butterfly": [ + { + "species": "Peacock Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.863118, + "distance": 0.136882, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.052778, + "numeric": 0.195653, + "categorical": 0.12, + "traits": 0.285714 + } + }, + { + "species": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.668297, + "distance": 0.331703, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.344167, + "numeric": 0.188144, + "categorical": 0.36, + "traits": 0.5 + } + }, + { + "species": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.63377, + "distance": 0.36623, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.191181, + "numeric": 0.635032, + "categorical": 0.28, + "traits": 0.5 + } + }, + { + "species": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.591732, + "distance": 0.408268, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.271944, + "numeric": 0.269962, + "categorical": 0.56, + "traits": 0.8 + } + }, + { + "species": "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.53331, + "distance": 0.46669, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.363889, + "numeric": 0.324537, + "categorical": 0.6, + "traits": 0.8 + } + } + ], + "Gatekeeper Butterfly": [ + { + "species": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.716798, + "distance": 0.283202, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.438333, + "numeric": 0.004045, + "categorical": 0.32, + "traits": 0.285714 + } + }, + { + "species": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.69266, + "distance": 0.30734, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.148472, + "numeric": 0.371806, + "categorical": 0.4, + "traits": 0.5 + } + }, + { + "species": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.61591, + "distance": 0.38409, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.207917, + "numeric": 0.647694, + "categorical": 0.32, + "traits": 0.5 + } + }, + { + "species": "Peacock Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.517686, + "distance": 0.482314, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.403056, + "numeric": 0.532368, + "categorical": 0.44, + "traits": 0.666667 + } + }, + { + "species": "Brimstone Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.490572, + "distance": 0.509428, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.405833, + "numeric": 0.636378, + "categorical": 0.44, + "traits": 0.666667 + } + } + ], + "Meadow Brown Butterfly": [ + { + "species": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.714139, + "distance": 0.285861, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.152222, + "numeric": 0.275888, + "categorical": 0.28, + "traits": 0.666667 + } + }, + { + "species": "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.69266, + "distance": 0.30734, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.148472, + "numeric": 0.371806, + "categorical": 0.4, + "traits": 0.5 + } + }, + { + "species": "Peacock Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.648637, + "distance": 0.351363, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.308056, + "numeric": 0.160562, + "categorical": 0.44, + "traits": 0.666667 + } + }, + { + "species": "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.639806, + "distance": 0.360194, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.204792, + "numeric": 0.589108, + "categorical": 0.28, + "traits": 0.5 + } + }, + { + "species": "Brimstone Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.591732, + "distance": 0.408268, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.271944, + "numeric": 0.269962, + "categorical": 0.56, + "traits": 0.8 + } + } + ], + "Orange Tip Butterfly": [ + { + "species": "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.716798, + "distance": 0.283202, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.438333, + "numeric": 0.004045, + "categorical": 0.32, + "traits": 0.285714 + } + }, + { + "species": "Peacock Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.679994, + "distance": 0.320006, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.140625, + "numeric": 0.531023, + "categorical": 0.28, + "traits": 0.5 + } + }, + { + "species": "Brimstone Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.63377, + "distance": 0.36623, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.191181, + "numeric": 0.635032, + "categorical": 0.28, + "traits": 0.5 + } + }, + { + "species": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.558051, + "distance": 0.441949, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.343333, + "numeric": 0.370461, + "categorical": 0.56, + "traits": 0.666667 + } + }, + { + "species": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.471191, + "distance": 0.528809, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.428056, + "numeric": 0.646348, + "categorical": 0.48, + "traits": 0.666667 + } + } + ], + "Peacock Butterfly": [ + { + "species": "Brimstone Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.863118, + "distance": 0.136882, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.052778, + "numeric": 0.195653, + "categorical": 0.12, + "traits": 0.285714 + } + }, + { + "species": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.679994, + "distance": 0.320006, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.140625, + "numeric": 0.531023, + "categorical": 0.28, + "traits": 0.5 + } + }, + { + "species": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.648637, + "distance": 0.351363, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.308056, + "numeric": 0.160562, + "categorical": 0.44, + "traits": 0.666667 + } + }, + { + "species": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.623057, + "distance": 0.376943, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.380278, + "numeric": 0.115326, + "categorical": 0.48, + "traits": 0.666667 + } + }, + { + "species": "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "model_family": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class": 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"compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 3 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Brimstone Butterfly", + "species_b": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.591732, + "distance": 0.408268, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.271944, + "numeric": 0.269962, + "categorical": 0.56, + "traits": 0.8 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 2 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Brimstone Butterfly", + "species_b": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.63377, + "distance": 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"extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.53331, + "distance": 0.46669, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.363889, + "numeric": 0.324537, + "categorical": 0.6, + "traits": 0.8 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 2 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Brimstone Butterfly", + "species_b": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.668297, + "distance": 0.331703, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.344167, + "numeric": 0.188144, + "categorical": 0.36, + "traits": 0.5 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 4 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "species_b": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.69266, + "distance": 0.30734, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.148472, + "numeric": 0.371806, + "categorical": 0.4, + "traits": 0.5 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 4 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "species_b": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.716798, + "distance": 0.283202, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.438333, + "numeric": 0.004045, + "categorical": 0.32, + "traits": 0.285714 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 5 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "species_b": "Peacock Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.517686, + "distance": 0.482314, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.403056, + "numeric": 0.532368, + "categorical": 0.44, + "traits": 0.666667 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 3 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "species_b": "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.454827, + "distance": 0.545173, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.232361, + "numeric": 0.960914, + "categorical": 0.56, + "traits": 0.666667 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 3 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Gatekeeper Butterfly", + "species_b": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "moderate_summer_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.61591, + "distance": 0.38409, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.207917, + "numeric": 0.647694, + "categorical": 0.32, + "traits": 0.5 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 4 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "species_b": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.558051, + "distance": 0.441949, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.343333, + "numeric": 0.370461, + "categorical": 0.56, + "traits": 0.666667 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 3 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "species_b": "Peacock Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.648637, + "distance": 0.351363, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.308056, + "numeric": 0.160562, + "categorical": 0.44, + "traits": 0.666667 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 3 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "species_b": "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.639806, + "distance": 0.360194, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.204792, + "numeric": 0.589108, + "categorical": 0.28, + "traits": 0.5 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 4 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Meadow Brown Butterfly", + "species_b": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.714139, + "distance": 0.285861, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.152222, + "numeric": 0.275888, + "categorical": 0.28, + "traits": 0.666667 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 3 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "species_b": "Peacock Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.679994, + "distance": 0.320006, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.140625, + "numeric": 0.531023, + "categorical": 0.28, + "traits": 0.5 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 4 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "species_b": "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.296441, + "distance": 0.703559, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.499167, + "numeric": 0.959569, + "categorical": 0.72, + "traits": 0.8 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 2 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Orange Tip Butterfly", + "species_b": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "moderate_spring_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.471191, + "distance": 0.528809, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.428056, + "numeric": 0.646348, + "categorical": 0.48, + "traits": 0.666667 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 3 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Peacock Butterfly", + "species_b": "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.4525, + "distance": 0.5475, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.4, + "numeric": 0.428546, + "categorical": 0.72, + "traits": 0.909091 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 1 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Peacock Butterfly", + "species_b": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "extended_spring_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.623057, + "distance": 0.376943, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.380278, + "numeric": 0.115326, + "categorical": 0.48, + "traits": 0.666667 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 3 + } + }, + { + "species_a": "Red Admiral Butterfly", + "species_b": "Speckled Wood Butterfly", + "model_family_a": "seasonal_presence", + "model_family_b": "seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_a": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "primary_class_b": "extended_summer_seasonal_presence", + "similarity": 0.692383, + "distance": 0.307617, + "component_distances": { + "circular_month": 0.156111, + "numeric": 0.388692, + "categorical": 0.24, + "traits": 0.666667 + }, + "compared_feature_counts": { + "circular_month": 4, + "numeric": 2, + "categorical": 8, + "traits": 3 + } + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/species_similarity.txt b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/species_similarity.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0e497f2 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/species_similarity.txt @@ -0,0 +1,56 @@ + +Brimstone Butterfly +------------------- + 1. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.863 distance=0.137 + 2. Speckled Wood Butterfly similarity=0.668 distance=0.332 + 3. Orange Tip Butterfly similarity=0.634 distance=0.366 + 4. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.592 distance=0.408 + 5. Red Admiral Butterfly similarity=0.533 distance=0.467 + +Gatekeeper Butterfly +-------------------- + 1. Orange Tip Butterfly similarity=0.717 distance=0.283 + 2. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.693 distance=0.307 + 3. Speckled Wood Butterfly similarity=0.616 distance=0.384 + 4. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.518 distance=0.482 + 5. Brimstone Butterfly similarity=0.491 distance=0.509 + +Meadow Brown Butterfly +---------------------- + 1. Speckled Wood Butterfly similarity=0.714 distance=0.286 + 2. Gatekeeper Butterfly similarity=0.693 distance=0.307 + 3. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.649 distance=0.351 + 4. Red Admiral Butterfly similarity=0.640 distance=0.360 + 5. Brimstone Butterfly similarity=0.592 distance=0.408 + +Orange Tip Butterfly +-------------------- + 1. Gatekeeper Butterfly similarity=0.717 distance=0.283 + 2. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.680 distance=0.320 + 3. Brimstone Butterfly similarity=0.634 distance=0.366 + 4. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.558 distance=0.442 + 5. Speckled Wood Butterfly similarity=0.471 distance=0.529 + +Peacock Butterfly +----------------- + 1. Brimstone Butterfly similarity=0.863 distance=0.137 + 2. Orange Tip Butterfly similarity=0.680 distance=0.320 + 3. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.649 distance=0.351 + 4. Speckled Wood Butterfly similarity=0.623 distance=0.377 + 5. Gatekeeper Butterfly similarity=0.518 distance=0.482 + +Red Admiral Butterfly +--------------------- + 1. Speckled Wood Butterfly similarity=0.692 distance=0.308 + 2. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.640 distance=0.360 + 3. Brimstone Butterfly similarity=0.533 distance=0.467 + 4. Gatekeeper Butterfly similarity=0.455 distance=0.545 + 5. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.453 distance=0.547 + +Speckled Wood Butterfly +----------------------- + 1. Meadow Brown Butterfly similarity=0.714 distance=0.286 + 2. Red Admiral Butterfly similarity=0.692 distance=0.308 + 3. Brimstone Butterfly similarity=0.668 distance=0.332 + 4. Peacock Butterfly similarity=0.623 distance=0.377 + 5. Gatekeeper Butterfly similarity=0.616 distance=0.384 diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/species_similarity_heatmap.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/species_similarity_heatmap.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fed6958 Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-butterflies/analysis/species_similarity_heatmap.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-flowers/analysis/activity_heatmap.png b/modelling/data/abingdon-flowers/analysis/activity_heatmap.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d0f0feb Binary files /dev/null and b/modelling/data/abingdon-flowers/analysis/activity_heatmap.png differ diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-flowers/analysis/calendar_activity.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-flowers/analysis/calendar_activity.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1f8b87f --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-flowers/analysis/calendar_activity.json @@ -0,0 +1,703 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-ecological-calendar-activity/v1", + "source_cluster_schema_version": "seasonal-ecological-calendar-clusters/v1", + "n_clusters": 8, + "normalisation": { + "method": "species_max", + "description": "Each species is normalised to its own maximum synthesised value before cluster-level monthly aggregation.", + "value_column": "synthesised" + }, + "clusters": [ + { + "cluster_id": 1, + "calendar_label": "Snowberry neighbourhood", + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Snowberry, mainly representing winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The defining pattern is a winter peak around September, a moderate autumn component, moderate summer suppression, and balanced response dynamics. Its defining traits include year wrapping winter presence, atypical winter peak, and moderate autumn component. Compared with the full species set, trough month is lower than the whole-set average and autumn to winter weight ratio is higher than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Snowberry" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.289268, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.053012, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.009363, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.001653, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.000292, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.035926, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.291041, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.706134, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 1.0, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.936094, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.581471, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.244276, + "n_species_contributing": 1 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 2, + "calendar_label": "Resident With Summer Detectability Collapse", + "description": "Cluster of 6 species, mainly representing resident with summer detectability collapse. Detectability peaks around May and and is lowest around September. The shared pattern includes moderate baseline presence, moderate summer suppression, weak autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Common high-support traits include resident detectability pattern, moderate summer suppression, and late spring early summer detectability peak. Compared with the full species set, fit score is higher than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 6, + "species": [ + "Nettle", + "Daisy", + "Shepherds Purse", + "Dandelion", + "Common Cleavers", + "Germander Speedwell" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.262306, + "n_species_contributing": 6 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.309034, + "n_species_contributing": 6 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.423749, + "n_species_contributing": 6 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.814026, + "n_species_contributing": 6 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.990138, + "n_species_contributing": 6 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.687428, + "n_species_contributing": 6 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.327064, + "n_species_contributing": 6 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.205891, + "n_species_contributing": 6 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.199651, + "n_species_contributing": 6 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.215433, + "n_species_contributing": 6 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.225705, + "n_species_contributing": 6 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.340456, + "n_species_contributing": 6 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 3, + "calendar_label": "Narrow Winter Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing narrow winter seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from January to March, with a mean peak around February, and and an average width of 1.7 months. It is characterised by narrow season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include winter peak, narrow season, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, season end month is lower than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Snowdrop", + "Winter Aconite" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.211124, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 1.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.290158, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.000638, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 1e-06, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 4, + "calendar_label": "Extended Spring Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 8 species, mainly representing extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to October, with a mean peak around May, and and an average width of 6.0 months. It is characterised by broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, strong post peak decline, and early peak alignment.", + "n_species": 8, + "species": [ + "Buttercup", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "Green Alkanet", + "Honeysuckle", + "Red Campion", + "Common Comfrey", + "Oxeye Daisy" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.000104, + "n_species_contributing": 8 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.021833, + "n_species_contributing": 8 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.167577, + "n_species_contributing": 8 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.591781, + "n_species_contributing": 8 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.948469, + "n_species_contributing": 8 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.582796, + "n_species_contributing": 8 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.264913, + "n_species_contributing": 8 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.158593, + "n_species_contributing": 8 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.062315, + "n_species_contributing": 8 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.008137, + "n_species_contributing": 8 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 9e-06, + "n_species_contributing": 8 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 8 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 5, + "calendar_label": "Extended Summer Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 7 species, mainly representing extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from May to November, with a mean peak around July, and and an average width of 5.7 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak, strong offseason suppression, and strong post peak decline.", + "n_species": 7, + "species": [ + "Dog Rose", + "Teasel", + "Red Clover", + "White Campion", + "Cuckoo Pint", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 7 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 3e-06, + "n_species_contributing": 7 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.001238, + "n_species_contributing": 7 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.064865, + "n_species_contributing": 7 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.460198, + "n_species_contributing": 7 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.856157, + "n_species_contributing": 7 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.72511, + "n_species_contributing": 7 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.463901, + "n_species_contributing": 7 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.199741, + "n_species_contributing": 7 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.074768, + "n_species_contributing": 7 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.01478, + "n_species_contributing": 7 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 6e-05, + "n_species_contributing": 7 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 6, + "calendar_label": "Moderate Summer Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 4 species, mainly representing moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from May to September, with a mean peak around July, and and an average width of 3.5 months. It is characterised by moderate season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak, central peak alignment, and moderate seasonal window.", + "n_species": 4, + "species": [ + "Horsetail", + "Rosebay Willowherb", + "Goats Beard", + "White Clover" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.000537, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.063317, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.387647, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.827421, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.736237, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.401753, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.090029, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.000107, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 4 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 7, + "calendar_label": "Moderate Spring Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 5 species, mainly representing moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to June, with a mean peak around May, and and an average width of 2.6 months. It is characterised by moderate season and sharp active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, moderate season, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, season end month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 5, + "species": [ + "Common Vetch", + "Cow Parsley", + "Lesser Celandine", + "Cowslip", + "Garlic Mustard" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.000183, + "n_species_contributing": 5 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 0.038141, + "n_species_contributing": 5 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.197269, + "n_species_contributing": 5 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.608199, + "n_species_contributing": 5 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 0.779512, + "n_species_contributing": 5 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.297048, + "n_species_contributing": 5 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.047299, + "n_species_contributing": 5 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.000127, + "n_species_contributing": 5 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 5 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 5 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 5 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 5 + } + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 8, + "calendar_label": "Narrow Spring Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing narrow spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from May to June, with a mean peak around May, and and an average width of 1.1 months. It is characterised by narrow season and sharp active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, narrow season, and moderate offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, season width months is lower than the whole-set average and season end month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Bluebell", + "Yellow Flag Iris" + ], + "monthly_activity": [ + { + "month": 1, + "month_name": "January", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 2, + "month_name": "February", + "mean_activity": 1e-06, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 3, + "month_name": "March", + "mean_activity": 0.003553, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 4, + "month_name": "April", + "mean_activity": 0.347482, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 5, + "month_name": "May", + "mean_activity": 1.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 6, + "month_name": "June", + "mean_activity": 0.163968, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 7, + "month_name": "July", + "mean_activity": 0.000223, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 8, + "month_name": "August", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 9, + "month_name": "September", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 10, + "month_name": "October", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 11, + "month_name": "November", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + }, + { + "month": 12, + "month_name": "December", + "mean_activity": 0.0, + "n_species_contributing": 2 + } + ] + } + ] +} diff --git a/modelling/data/abingdon-flowers/analysis/extracted_clusters.json b/modelling/data/abingdon-flowers/analysis/extracted_clusters.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3a19c07 --- /dev/null +++ b/modelling/data/abingdon-flowers/analysis/extracted_clusters.json @@ -0,0 +1,109 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "seasonal-ecological-calendar-clusters/v1", + "source_schema_version": "species-similarity-clusters/v2", + "source_created_utc": "2026-05-21T14:39:35.878230+00:00", + "n_species": 35, + "n_clusters": 8, + "cluster_caveat": "Clusters should be interpreted as exploratory seasonal assemblages rather than fixed ecological categories.", + "clusters": [ + { + "cluster_id": 1, + "calendar_label": "Snowberry neighbourhood", + "description": "Single-species cluster containing Snowberry, mainly representing winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The defining pattern is a winter peak around September, a moderate autumn component, moderate summer suppression, and balanced response dynamics. Its defining traits include year wrapping winter presence, atypical winter peak, and moderate autumn component. Compared with the full species set, trough month is lower than the whole-set average and autumn to winter weight ratio is higher than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 1, + "species": [ + "Snowberry" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 2, + "calendar_label": "Resident With Summer Detectability Collapse", + "description": "Cluster of 6 species, mainly representing resident with summer detectability collapse. Detectability peaks around May and and is lowest around September. The shared pattern includes moderate baseline presence, moderate summer suppression, weak autumn component, and rapid decline biased response dynamics. Common high-support traits include resident detectability pattern, moderate summer suppression, and late spring early summer detectability peak. Compared with the full species set, fit score is higher than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 6, + "species": [ + "Nettle", + "Daisy", + "Shepherds Purse", + "Dandelion", + "Common Cleavers", + "Germander Speedwell" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 3, + "calendar_label": "Narrow Winter Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing narrow winter seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from January to March, with a mean peak around February, and and an average width of 1.7 months. It is characterised by narrow season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include winter peak, narrow season, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, season end month is lower than the whole-set average and season midpoint month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Snowdrop", + "Winter Aconite" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 4, + "calendar_label": "Extended Spring Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 8 species, mainly representing extended spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to October, with a mean peak around May, and and an average width of 6.0 months. It is characterised by broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, strong post peak decline, and early peak alignment.", + "n_species": 8, + "species": [ + "Buttercup", + "Red Dead Nettle", + "Doves Foot Cranesbill", + "Green Alkanet", + "Honeysuckle", + "Red Campion", + "Common Comfrey", + "Oxeye Daisy" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 5, + "calendar_label": "Extended Summer Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 7 species, mainly representing extended summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from May to November, with a mean peak around July, and and an average width of 5.7 months. It is characterised by very broad season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak, strong offseason suppression, and strong post peak decline.", + "n_species": 7, + "species": [ + "Dog Rose", + "Teasel", + "Red Clover", + "White Campion", + "Cuckoo Pint", + "Common Poppy", + "Cornflower" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 6, + "calendar_label": "Moderate Summer Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 4 species, mainly representing moderate summer seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from May to September, with a mean peak around July, and and an average width of 3.5 months. It is characterised by moderate season and moderate active window. Common high-support traits include summer peak, central peak alignment, and moderate seasonal window.", + "n_species": 4, + "species": [ + "Horsetail", + "Rosebay Willowherb", + "Goats Beard", + "White Clover" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 7, + "calendar_label": "Moderate Spring Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 5 species, mainly representing moderate spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from April to June, with a mean peak around May, and and an average width of 2.6 months. It is characterised by moderate season and sharp active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, moderate season, and strong offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, season end month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 5, + "species": [ + "Common Vetch", + "Cow Parsley", + "Lesser Celandine", + "Cowslip", + "Garlic Mustard" + ] + }, + { + "cluster_id": 8, + "calendar_label": "Narrow Spring Seasonal Presence", + "description": "Cluster of 2 species, mainly representing narrow spring seasonal presence. The fitted active window runs roughly from May to June, with a mean peak around May, and and an average width of 1.1 months. It is characterised by narrow season and sharp active window. Common high-support traits include spring peak, narrow season, and moderate offseason suppression. Compared with the full species set, season width months is lower than the whole-set average and season end month is lower than the whole-set average.", + "n_species": 2, + "species": [ + "Bluebell", + "Yellow Flag Iris" + ] + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/modelling/scripts/run-calendar.sh b/modelling/scripts/run-calendar.sh index 1faf23f..abe2ccd 100755 --- a/modelling/scripts/run-calendar.sh +++ b/modelling/scripts/run-calendar.sh @@ -20,18 +20,15 @@ SEASONAL_DATA="$MODELLING_ROOT/data/$1/seasonal" WINTER_DATA="$MODELLING_ROOT/data/$1/winter" if [[ ! -d "$RESIDENT_DATA" ]]; then - echo Data folder not found: $RESIDENT_DATA - exit 1 + RESIDENT_DATA="" fi if [[ ! -d "$SEASONAL_DATA" ]]; then - echo Data folder not found: $SEASONAL_DATA - exit 1 + SEASONAL_DATA="" fi if [[ ! -d "$WINTER_DATA" ]]; then - echo Data folder not found: $WINTER_DATA - exit 1 + WINTER_DATA="" fi # Build the ecological calendar pipeline diff --git a/modelling/scripts/run-similarity.sh b/modelling/scripts/run-similarity.sh index 62dfb30..be3a7c8 100755 --- a/modelling/scripts/run-similarity.sh +++ b/modelling/scripts/run-similarity.sh @@ -20,18 +20,15 @@ SEASONAL_DATA="$MODELLING_ROOT/data/$1/seasonal" WINTER_DATA="$MODELLING_ROOT/data/$1/winter" if [[ ! -d "$RESIDENT_DATA" ]]; then - echo Data folder not found: $RESIDENT_DATA - exit 1 + RESIDENT_DATA="" fi if [[ ! -d "$SEASONAL_DATA" ]]; then - echo Data folder not found: $SEASONAL_DATA - exit 1 + SEASONAL_DATA="" fi if [[ ! -d "$WINTER_DATA" ]]; then - echo Data folder not found: $WINTER_DATA - exit 1 + WINTER_DATA="" fi # Set the arguments to write the CSV file